Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST
KS...THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN FORECAST
AREA AS OF 2 AM. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL HAS BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS UP AROUND HIGHWAY 20...WHERE 1.5 TO
3 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. THE RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN TOO
HEAVY IN A SHORT PERIOD THUS FAR...AND NO FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE NOW QUIET SATURATED...AND ANY
ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH SAW THE MOST RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL IT PASSES
ANY LOCATION. WE WILL FORECAST HIGH POPS NORTH...AND SMALLER POPS
SOUTH TO COVER THIS PROGRESS THIS MORNING. BY MID DAY...THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHED...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...AND ANOTHER ROUND OVER POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE HEADED OUR WAY. THE FRONT
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING...AND MAY KEEP STORMS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LINEAR STORMS WITH
PROPAGATING COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY...WE WILL EXTEND THE VERY HIGH
POPS TO ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH
IN BOWING SEGMENTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MANCHESTER...TO MARENGO IOWA.
RAINFALL TONIGHT COULD EASILY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN 1/3
OR SO OF THE CWA...AND ONCE AGAIN A WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AT ALL...THIS WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED. MONDAY...THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD...AND A DECAYING
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING ACTIVITY EAST IN THE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS MONDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ...ERVIN...

.LONG TERM...
NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO LONG TERM GRIDS...BUT IN GENERAL THE
PATTERN LOOKS DRIER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SPLIT FLOW DOMINATING
THE MID WEEK WEATHER. ...ERVIN...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. RESPECTABLE LLJ IS PUSHING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT AND
CREATING ELEVATED TSRA ALONG WITH AREAS OF RA. VSBYS/CIGS ARE QUITE
VARIABLE RUNNING FROM VFR TO 1-2SM AND CIGS BLO 1KFT. 06Z RUC TRENDS
SUGGEST KCID/KDBQ WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH IMPACT WX THROUGH 12-15Z
BEFORE BRIEFLY QUIETING DOWN. KMLI/KBRL SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR A
WHILE. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH
TODAY WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS AND CIGS.        ...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     JO DAVIESS.

MO...NONE.
&&

ERVIN/ERVIN/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY IOWA TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR TRAINING STORMS COULD
EVEN RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO MINOR
TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING. INTERESTED INDIVIDUALS SHOULD STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES AND LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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