Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 190951
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
451 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

IAC009-027-077-191015-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-090619T1015Z/
CARROLL IA-GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
451 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN AUDUBON...NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 450 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEDHAM...OR 48 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF IDA GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4202 9491 4211 9474 4180 9460 4176 9485
      4199 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0952Z 249DEG 36KT 4191 9473

$$

KINNEY

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 191012
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
512 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

IAC009-027-077-191022-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-090619T1015Z/
CARROLL IA-GUTHRIE IA-AUDUBON IA-
512 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN AUDUBON...
NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 515
AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

LAT...LON 4202 9491 4211 9474 4180 9460 4176 9485
      4199 9495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 249DEG 36KT 4198 9447

$$

KINNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
130KT SPEED MAX OUT AHEAD CENTERED OVER SD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION AIDING UVM OF APPROACHING NE MCS.  SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM CO
INTO NE ALSO HELPING LIFT WITH PLENTY OF FORCING STILL UPSTREAM.
MUCAPES 3-5K J/KG ACROSS IA WITH KADU RUC/LAPS SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF
MCS SHOWING ROOT OF CONVECTION ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...NO MORE THAN
900MB.  HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AT TIMES.  WITH FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN WATCH AREA NOT TOO
EXTREME WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SR INFLOW.  09Z SFC ANLYS PLACES FRONT
FROM NRN KS ACROSS OMA METRO TO NEAR MSP METRO...WITH WARM FRONT
INTO WI FROM MSP WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBVIOUS PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEXT 18 HOURS OR
SO.  AIRMASS CERTAINLY THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN
REALIZED YET FOR SOME REASON.  ONLY A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS IN SERN NE
RECENTLY.  SHEAR AND INFLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY LACKING TO GET
THINGS TOO ORGANIZED.  RECENT NAM/RUC RUNS ALSO POINT TOWARD
ELEVATED CIN INCREASING TOWARD 12Z SO THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE OF
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT RATHER THAN SVR.  HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS ARE
PEGGED THOUGH WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 310K SFC SO THIS
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LLJ VEERS EVEN MORE.  HAVE
ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALONG WITH SVR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD SAG SWD TODAY WITH QUESTION
TURNING TOWARD REDEVELOPMENT.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST AND
DEPENDS ON LONGEVITY AND MOVEMENT OF CURRENT MCS...BUT FAVORED
SCENARIO IS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN IA DURING PEAK HEATING
QUICKLY EXITING INTO MO AND IL BY EARLY EVENING.  LOOKS LIKE SRN IA
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY MCS...BUT OUTFLOW MAY PUSH
CONVERGENCE AREA SOUTH DIMINISHING THREAT ACROSS NRN AND WRN FRINGES
OF CURRENT SPC MODERATE OUTLOOK.

LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND HAVE PUSHED TIMING UP OF POPS.  GFS HAS NOT
BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST LATELY SO FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
SOLUTIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED.  THIS BRINGS SRN PLAINS SHORT WV INTO MO
VALLEY SAT NIGHT LIFTING INTO NRN IA SUN.  IF SOME CONSISTENCY
CONTINUES...POPS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED EVEN FURTHER.  NO CHANGES TO
POP/WX BEYOND MON.  STAYED CLOSE TO TEMP GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF WARMER
END OF THINGS TOWARD NAM MOS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT.  CURRENTLY CELLS ARE STRUGGLING BUT
EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL DEVELOP.  STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE IN EARNEST BY
08Z ALONG A LINE FROM N OF KALO TO S OF KFOD TO KOMA THEN SINK S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BSS/RPK/FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
857 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

IAZ033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-200200-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-
POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
857 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 2 AM.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY
OCCUR AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.  REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAIN OR FLOODING ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED AND APPRECIATED...EVEN
OUTSIDE OF ACTIVATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-200200-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
857 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE 2 AM
IN WORTH AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER
AGAIN QUITE POSSIBLE...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY
OCCUR AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED AND APPRECIATED...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ACTIVATIONS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

FAB