Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 012338
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

IAC159-020000-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-090602T0000Z/
RINGGOLD IA-
638 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN RINGGOLD COUNTY...

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REDDING...OR 76 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DELPHOS AND BENTON BY 645 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4057 9434 4067 9449 4080 9432 4058 9413
      4057 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 242DEG 16KT 4063 9436

$$

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 012351
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
651 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

IAC159-020001-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-090602T0000Z/
RINGGOLD IA-
651 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RINGGOLD COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 700 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4057 9434 4067 9449 4080 9432 4058 9413
      4057 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 242DEG 16KT 4066 9429

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.AVIATION DISCUSSION 02/00Z.

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANLYS SHOWS THE MLCIN HAS ERODED OVER SRN IA WITH
ASSOCIATED CAPES 1500-2500 J/KG.  THIS AREA IS COINCIDENT WITH DEEP
CONVERGENCE BUT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO
REFLECT THIS WITH CU OVER NRN MO.  FARTHER NORTH STRING OF SHORT
WAVES ON FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS NE/IA/IL...INCLUDING MCV
JUST READY TO EXIT FORECAST AREA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS. 12Z DMX 3.5KM WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
SITUATION AND RAPIDLY FIRES THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION AND REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER
NORTH.  MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THERE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG PERSISTENT 300K CONVERGENCE ZONE RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL
IA.  INFLOW ALONG THAT SFC IS NOT STRONG AT 30KTS OR LESS...BUT
STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING ELEVATED CAPES AND LOW
INHIBITION.  THUS HAVE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS GOING WITH HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.  NO HEADLINE YET WITH FFG VALUES RELATIVELY HIGH FROM
CENTRAL IA WWD.  STORM MOTION IS 20KTS AND PWS/WCDS ARE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST AND HWO HOWEVER.

WITH PRECIP CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND DRY AIR INTO NRN IA...HAVE LOWERED
MINS IN MOST SPOTS WHICH GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FOR TUESDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.  LOOKING FOR JUST SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN
THE MORNING.  THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA THOUGH CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG REMAIN IN AN AREA FROM LEON TO
OTTUMWA.  AS A RESULT I WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO
BUT HEAVY RAIN STILL THE MAIN THREAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE WEATHER
ISSUES...OTHER THAN DEALING WITH ANY LOCATIONS THAT MAY HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA IN
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA.  AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER OK/TX/CO AREA WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE INTO NORTHERN MO AREA.  BEST CAPES
DO NOT MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN IA UNTIL SUNDAY BUT THE MODELS INDICATE
PERIODS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF IA.
SHEAR ON SUNDAY IS NOT AS STRONG BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  I UPDATED THE HWO TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRESENT SFC BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF STATE WITH LINE OF HEAVY STORMS FIRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW THAT SOME LIFT TO BOUNDARY OVN WITH SFC BASED
CONVECTION SOUTH QUIETING DOWN WHILE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY LIGHTS UP
FARTHER NORTH. AT PRESENT...LOOKS LIKE TAF SITES SOUTH OF US20 TO BE
AFFECTED MOST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH LESSER PERIODS OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NORTH. CHALLENGE AS TO HOW LONG TO CARRY TSRA
BUT PRIND ARE THAT OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL AFT 03Z ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH GREATER LIKLIHOOD AFT 05Z. NO REAL HINT AT LET UP TUES
SO HAVE LEFT SHRA VCTS SOUTH WITH SHRA OR -SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH.
WILL EVALUATE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND EVENT UNFOLDS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV
LONG TERM...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
317 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

IAZ026>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-021100-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
317 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN IOWA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PONDING WATER ON ROADS AND RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES BY DAYBREAK.

IN ADDITION...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST FORK
CEDAR RIVER AT FINCHFORD. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA TO LEON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AS WELL. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT SPECIFIC THREATS AND
TIMING WILL BE WORKED OUT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-021100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-
317 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO PIN POINT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD IS RATHER LOW.

FAB/BSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
608 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

IAZ092-093-012345-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-
608 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN RINGGOLD COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRANT CITY...OR 82 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REDDING BY 620 PM CDT.
  MALOY BY 625 PM CDT.
  DELPHOS BY 630 PM CDT.
  BENTON BY 635 PM CDT.