Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Storm Warnings in 2009

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

February 2, 2009Cook County, Lake County, Saint Louis County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this winter storm warning at Feb 2, 2009, 8:29 AM CST for Cook County, Lake County, Saint Louis County, Minnesota. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Feb 2, 2009, 8:29 AM CST (14:29 UTC)
Expired: Feb 2, 2009, 3:44 PM CST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN

Counties Cook County, MN, Lake County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 351 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1145 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -109 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 2, 2:47 AM CST, 5 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 2:47 AM CST, 5 hours 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
247 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOCATION HAS
RESULTED IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE...THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BORDERLAND. LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD AIR IS NOW ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN FA THIS EARLY
MORNING. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED...MAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE PIVOTS NEARLY
IN PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS PRESENTS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...BOTH SYNOPTICALLY TODAY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD/BORDERLAND...AND LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED ALL ALONG SHORES
(BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH INCLUDED) OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 2-D FGEN SHOWS STRONG 925MB FGEN SIGNATURE ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAVE
SEEN SOME VSBYS LOWER THAT ONE MILE...INCLUDING AT KINL AND KCDD
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS AND POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BECOME LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE INVERTED TROUGH
LINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE PIVOTS MORE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH SHORE.
LATEST NAM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ON LES BAND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGRATES
SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE DIMINISHES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SET UP DO SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. CONCERN IS THAT A SLOW LES BAND MAY DROP SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IF EXPECTED MIGRATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS DOES NOT
OCCUR...OR IS SLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY AND ADDED SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO FORECAST ATTM. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BOTH
THE MATERIALIZATION OF ANY LES BANDS...AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT.
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED/EXPANDED. ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE...A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TONIGHT LOOK TO BRING
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO
THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. HAVE INCREASES POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE
AS WELL.

LES POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FETCH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

.EXTENDED...LES SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING ALONG
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW WI. THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
W AND AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WAA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS AREA.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POP AFTER 06Z. A PATTERN FAVORING WARMER
AIR WILL ENVELOPE THE FA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AFFECT THE FA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE WEATHER GRID ON
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR MAYBE EVEN SOME FREEZING
RAIN MIXING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE. SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ADDED A MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT VFR WILL
PREVAIL SW OF A KVWU/KDLH/KHYR LINE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  -4   7  -3 /  70  60  10   0
INL   2 -16   4  -9 /  60  20  10   0
BRD   7 -10   8  -2 /  20  10  10   0
HYR  14  -3  10  -8 /  60  30  20   0
ASX  16  -1   9  -7 /  80  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY
     FOR ASHLAND-IRON.

LILES/GSF

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 2, 4:35 AM CST, 3 hours 54 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 2, 5:11 AM CST, 3 hours 18 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 2, 7:45 AM CST, 44 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 2, 7:56 AM CST, 33 minutes before

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Local storm report, Feb 2, 8:23 AM CST, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 2, 8:29 AM CST	Winter Weather Advisory	DLH	Cook, Lake	7 hr
Feb 2, 3:44 PM CST	Wind Chill Advisory	DLH	Aitkin, Cass, Cook, Crow Wing, Itasca, Koochiching and 2 more	18 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Minnesota, 2009 Every winter storm warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.