High Wind Warning 1, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING/VERT MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MID LVL LOW IN SRN CANADA HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE SWATH OF +RA TO SURGE NWRD WITH SRLY 40-50 KT LLJ OVER
FA. MPX AND DLH RADARS ARE SHOWING STP AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
HAS FALLEN ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35
FROM DULUTH TO PINE CITY. ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA...AS WELL AS NORTH TO COTTON AND E INTO EXTREME NW WIS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING...MAINLY BEFORE 10 PM. KDLH SOUNDING SHOWS MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR +RA...DEEP SATURATION AND LONG SKINNY
CAPE IS FOUND THROUGH 02Z...THEN DIMINISHES AFTER 06Z.

PREV FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE EXCEPT TO
INCREASE QPF SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY THIS EVENING. SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS AND
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER WRN TIP OF LK SUP
OVERNIGHT...WOBBLING OVER THE REGION THURS BEFORE FINALLY EXITING
BY FRIDAY AFTRN.

&&

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING WILL COVER THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AS THE SFC HIGH GLIDES OFF THE THE SE ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW SETS
UP USHERING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW BEGINS TO PREVAIL ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE A SMALL POP IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH. WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
LACKING...HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY FOR FROPA. FA IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY DUE TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIER
RAIN/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF FOG AS
SFC WIND BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT.

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  63  56  70 /  90  60  60  20
INL  54  63  50  68 /  80  70  40  10
BRD  57  66  54  71 /  80  70  40  10
HYR  57  68  54  66 /  90  70  60  30
ASX  56  67  54  64 /  90  60  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

23/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
341 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
341 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOOK FOR PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADS...FULL CULVERTS...AND SMALL CREEKS RISING. AN
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PINE...CARLTON...SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS BURNETT AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-201030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
341 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

12

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
714 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

MNZ037-WIZ001-200030-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
714 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

...VERY WINDY THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE TWIN PORTS...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT CROIX FLOWAGE...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR.  THE DULUTH LIFT-BRIDGE
CONTINUES TO REPORT SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH THESE
STORMS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SOLON SPRINGS BY 720 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4620 9213 4685 9221 4686 9195 4684 9197
      4678 9208 4675 9208 4672 9204 4671 9199
      4669 9195 4671 9175 4620 9181

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SUPERIOR                46.70N 92.06W
08/19/2009                   DOUGLAS            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE 50 FOOT TALL TREE, TWO FEET IN DIAMETER, BLOWN DOWN
            AT BARKERS ISLAND IN SUPERIOR.

&&

PPARKE