Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH INTO KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST SURFACE AIR
EXHIBITING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AROUND A 30-50 PERCENT AREAL
COVERAGE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN LOCALLY AS
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND
WEAK CAPE (THIN POSITIVE AREA ON SOUNDINGS) SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS
WITH A WARM CLOUD LAYER. THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN SECTIONS O
THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN GENERATING A HIGH QPF MCS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR A FORCING MECHANISM EXISTS FOR SUCH
AN ORGANIZED EVENT BY LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES BY AROUND 12 UTC THURSDAY. WITH THE EXITING JET
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TODAY PLACING SW KS IN THE RIGHT FRONT
ENTRANCE REGION, AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OWING TO 1-1.5
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER, WE WOULD THINK THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP A SHORT PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ROUGHLY FROM COOLIDGE TO LIBERAL. A MORE ORGANIZED MCS COULD BE
PLACED FARTHER SOUTH AS ADVERTISED BY THE RECENT NAM/WRF RUNS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH MAIN MCS ACTIVITY
TO OUR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN SECTIONS ROUGHLY 12-18 UTC THURSDAY.
WITH BETTER ISOLATION WE SHOULD WARM CLOSER TO 80S DEGREES AS
WELL. A DRIER INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL TRANSLATE INTO
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEVELOP NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AGAIN ON FRIDAY, AND HAVE ROUGH CLIMATOLOGY 20
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
INTO THE MID 80S OR HIGHER.

RUSSELL

DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. I AM STARTING TO
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT, NW FLOW ALOFT IS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THAT FLOW ARE
SUBTLE AND DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE MOST OBVIOUS AND CONSISTENT OF
THEM LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, I
INCREASED POPS A BIT DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE MAY BE STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT TIME PERIOD ANY DAY DURING THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW
TURN OUT TO BE. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE MODELS HAVE INDEED MADE A CORRECTION
TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION REGARDING TEMPS. HOWEVER, THE COOL AIR
PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY ARE STILL NOT
THAT FAR AWAY. THUS, WHILE I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP, I STILL KEPT
THEM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. -WRIGHT

&&

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM SW NEBRASKA INTO NE COLORADO. WILL
SEE TSRA INCREASING TO AT LEAST SCT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC FLOW SHOULD
VEER TO AROUND 210 AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH FROPA/WSHFT AOA 30/01Z AT
KHYS AND 30/03Z KDDC/KGCK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND MCS WILL COME
OUT OF COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND CROSS INTO SW KANSAS. THIS SHOULD
AFFECT ONLY KGCK AND KDDC WITH PSBL TSRA AFTER 30/10Z. -WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  77  56  87 /  50  20  10  20
GCK  57  76  56  87 /  60  30  10  20
EHA  62  75  57  87 /  60  40  20  20
LBL  63  78  56  87 /  70  30  10  20
HYS  56  77  52  86 /  50  10  10  10
P28  64  80  59  85 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN33/34

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
350 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009 /250 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
A SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD
FROM THESE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COLORADO AND OKLAHOMA LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS EARLY THIS WEEKEND A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SOUTH OF A JOHNSON CITY TO
SUBLETTE TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE AFTER 5 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

RUSSELL