Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOST FAVORABLE AREA BEING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WHERE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR HAS LED TO
NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS FROM AROUND GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND SOUTH
THROUGH CLARK COUNTY. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, GRADUALLY REMOVING THUNDER MENTION FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 00 UTC. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE SCT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT
ROTATES THROUGH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY
MORNING ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.

BEYOND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT ISOLATION, WHILE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME CU IN THE EAST WILL BE PRESENT AFTER MORNING CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 60S.

A MORE CONSIDERABLE WARMUP INTO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S IS
FORECAST MONDAY AS WARMER 850 MB AIR SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

RUSSELL

DAYS 3-7...

ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS MID TO LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY AM
FAVORING THE WARM ECMWF 85H TEMP TREND LATE WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND
INITIAL PLAN TODAY IS TO GO AT LEAST AS WARM AS THE MEX/HPCGUICE IF
NOT A LITTLE WARMER.

W/V LOOP THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SHOWING SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW. ECMWF AND GFS BY FRIDAY TO
VARIOUS DEGREES SUGGEST THAT ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS AS SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF OUR DEEPENING LEE
TROF. 7H TEMPS DO APPEAR FAIRLY WARM BUT THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE OUT
NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PCPN...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. PREVIOUS SHIFT
BEGAN INCREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS
TREND. HPC ALSO SEEMS TO BE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...

AFTERNOON STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR E/SE CWA. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR GCK. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF GCK TAFS AND ONLY INCLUDED CB WORDING FOR HYS.

AS OUR UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION
85H WINDS OF 30-40KTS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 6-12Z SUN WHICH WILL BE
USHERING IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS AS THIS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO
SW KS.

AS FOR SKY COVER...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELIEVE VRF CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z. THIS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNTIL THE STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT. PER
BUFR DATA LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AT HYS WITH
9-12Z TIME FRAME FOR DDC AND GCK. FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY DUE TO STRONG WINDS. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 2-3SM RANGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY
WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS.

18

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  66  39  74 /  50  10   0   0
GCK  43  66  38  76 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  43  67  39  76 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  43  67  40  76 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  48  66  38  73 /  60  10   0   0
P28  48  66  41  73 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH 167 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT ALONG AND EAST OF A
SCOTT CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY AND ENGLEWOOD LINE.

&&

FN33/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
422 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
422 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009 /322 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF OR EVEN A QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A MINNEOLA TO LACROSSE LING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

26

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