Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 262129
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSC007-033-262145-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-090426T2145Z/
BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-
429 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND WESTERN BARBER COUNTIES...

AT 428 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR AETNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AETNA...
  LAKE CITY...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND WESTERN BARBER
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
AND OCCASIONALLY DO DEVELOP WITH LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9925 3734 9899 3736 9855 3701 9872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 216DEG 37KT 3707 9896

$$

RUSSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

WRITTEN AT 1730 UTC:
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WAS UNDERWAY AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY KRSL TO KDDC
TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE INITIAL WAVE OF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
FRONT...WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE
EVENING. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST
THAN THE PREVIOUS...INCLUDING EVENTUALLY MEADE, DODGE CITY, RUSH
CENTER AREAS BY THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES EARLY WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...AND THIS MODE OF SEVERE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE OF ACTIVITY
REALIZING BETTER AND BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS 0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASES DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE MID-UPPER
FORCING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DESPITE EARLY TORNADO WARNINGS SO FAR
FROM PRATT-KIOWA TO CLARK-COMANCHE COUNTIES...THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
ONE UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF A VERY BRIEF TORNADO. THINK THAT THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE BY 00Z WITH THE 0-3Z TIME FRAME
LOOKING BEST FOR TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT ABATE UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT SURGES INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY AROUND 09-12Z. CONVECTIVE
MODE AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE COMPLEX MCS...AND
PERHAPS BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL GRIP WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE 48-53F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
KANSAS. COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ENSUE
TUESDAY...WITH RETURN MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY ADVECT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AS GULF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE REMNANT COOL AIRMASS. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL ALSO BE
COOL...AND DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...MAY NOT THE 48-53F
RANGE AGAIN TUESDAY.

UPDATE TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION AS OF 1950 UTC:
SEVERE EVENT HAD EVOLVED INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MODE WITH MAIN
THREATS BEING HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE...FROM THE
EARLIER SUPERCELL MODE. THE FRONT WAS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY,
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO THE EAST
OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SEVERELY WORKED-OVER WITH SURFACE-BASED
CAPE BEING REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY. LOCAL SHORT-FUSE COMPOSITE
GRAPHICS SUPPORT THIS WITH 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE ONLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THERE
REMAINS THE OPPORTUNITY, HOWEVER, FOR THIS MODERATE CAPE AIRMASS
TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS THE LIBERAL-DODGE CITY-MEADE AREAS WHERE THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN SEVERELY PUNISHED BY THE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE EVENT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS
WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER ON THIS EVENING ONCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKES IT BACK FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...IF IT DOES.
-UMSCHEID

DAYS 3-7...

ALL OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
MAINTAINING A VERY SHARP RIDGE NEAR 140W WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BREAKING ANTICYCLONICALLY UNDER THE RIDGE
AND CLOSING OFF WEST OF THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN PIECES LATER IN THE WEEK AS INCREASING FLOW IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES BREAKS UNDER THE CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z ECMWF OR 12Z
CANADIAN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL MEMBERS SLOWER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION WITH A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE AND
LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, AND STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS PROBABLY WILL
PERSIST IN CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY WARM. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS AND
RECIRCULATION OF COOL AIR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS THURSDAY BEHIND THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET, BUT A JET STREAK
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING OVER A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV TO SUPPORT RAIN ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WERE LOWERED OVER HPC GUIDANCE AS A CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING, AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR A KANSAS CITY-GAGE LINE BY MONDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM UTAH TO EASTERN
COLORADO BY MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW OVER THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND COULD
AFFECT DODGE CITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  63  40  64 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  47  62  39  63 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  46  68  41  63 /  30  10   0   0
LBL  53  67  42  64 /  40  10   0   0
HYS  47  60  36  65 /  80  30   0   0
P28  62  65  43  67 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN25/01/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
623 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-271115-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
623 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2009 /523 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KINSLEY TO LARNED
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TODAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM HAYS THROUGH DODGE CITY AND MEADE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND KINSLEY AND
LARNED AND LATER TODAY IN THE AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND MEADE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE CROFT             37.57N 98.95W
04/26/2009  E80 MPH          PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             6 NNE CROFT             37.57N 98.95W
04/26/2009  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             COLDWATER               37.26N 99.34W
04/26/2009  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             5 W CULLISON            37.63N 99.00W
04/26/2009  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             3 WSW STAFFORD          37.94N 98.65W
04/26/2009  E0.88 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N WILMORE             37.39N 99.21W
04/26/2009  M5.90 INCH       KIOWA              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULE CREEK FLOODING.

&&

WRIGHT