Frost Advisory 3, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 092020 CCA
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.AS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER KANSAS SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH FROM COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, INCREASING
BRIEFLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A HARD FREEZE
TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY LINE, WITH AREAS OF
FROST DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING NORTHWEST OF A HUGOTON TO SAINT
JOHN LINE. THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN EARLY IN THE NIGHT, SPREADING THE HARD FREEZE
TO AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEADE TO SAINT JOHN.

KSZ031-045-046-100630-
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.091011T0400Z-091011T1600Z/
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.091010T1000Z-091010T1500Z/
ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAYS...ELLIS...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 26 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE AROUND 5 AM
CDT SATURDAY MORNING, AND LINGER THERE THROUGH 10 AM CDT SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

ALSO, AND EVEN HARDER FREEZE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES BY 10 PM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
DROP INTO THE 23 TO 26 DEGREE RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE CARE NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PREPARE YOUR OUTDOOR PETS FOR THE COLD.

&&

$$

KSZ030-043-044-061-062-100630-
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.091011T0400Z-091011T1600Z/
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.091010T1000Z-091010T1500Z/
TREGO-SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009 /215 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

...FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ SATURDAY
TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ SATURDAY
TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SUNDAY. THE FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING...A HARD FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAY BREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER AND A HARD FREEZE IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
THROUGH 9 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE CARE NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PREPARE YOUR OUTDOOR PETS FOR THE COLD.

&&

$$

KSZ063>066-074>079-084-085-100630-
/O.COR.KDDC.FR.Y.0003.091010T1000Z-091010T1400Z/
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-
EDWARDS-MORTON-STEVENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...JETMORE...
HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...
JOHNSON CITY...ULYSSES...SUBLETTE...SATANTA...CIMARRON...
MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...ELKHART...
RICHFIELD...HUGOTON...MOSCOW
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE SURFACE FREEZES, AREAS OF FROST WILL
OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE AS 
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH 9 AM
CDT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

KSZ086-087-100630-
/O.COR.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
SEWARD-MEADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER
315 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 28 DEGREES BY 5 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A HARD FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

12

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 100333
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1033 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND...

.LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY
LINE COULD SEE A HARD FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 28
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ELKHART AND HUGOTON TO
DODGE CITY AND ST JOHN. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MEADE
TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING
ON ROADWAYS. 

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A MEADE TO ST JOHN LINE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061-062-101245-
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.091010T1000Z-091010T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.091011T0400Z-091011T1600Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD
1033 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009 /933 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO
10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/
SATURDAY TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ SUNDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO
10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SATURDAY. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ SATURDAY TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/
SUNDAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 26 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE AROUND 5 AM
CDT SATURDAY MORNING... AND LINGER THERE THROUGH 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

ALSO... AND EVEN HARDER FREEZE WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES BY 10 PM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND DROP INTO THE 23 TO 26 DEGREE RANGE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE CARE NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PREPARE YOUR OUTDOOR PETS FOR THE COLD.

&&

$$

KSZ063>066-074>079-084-085-101245-
/O.CON.KDDC.FR.Y.0003.091010T1000Z-091010T1400Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-
EDWARDS-MORTON-STEVENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...JETMORE...
HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...
JOHNSON CITY...ULYSSES...SUBLETTE...SATANTA...CIMARRON...
MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...ELKHART...
RICHFIELD...HUGOTON...MOSCOW
1033 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT
SATURDAY. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE SURFACE FREEZES... AREAS OF FROST WILL
OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE BY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH 9 AM
CDT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

KSZ086-087-101245-
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
SEWARD-MEADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER
1033 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 28 DEGREES BY 5 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A HARD FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 100951
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.AN UNUSUALLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE GROWING
SEASON FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO LARNED.  

KSZ030-031-043>046-061-062-101800-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FZ.W.0003.091011T0400Z-091011T1600Z/
/O.EXT.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.091010T1000Z-091010T1800Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...SCOTT CITY...DIGHTON...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...
RUSH CENTER...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009 /351 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2009/

...FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING. THE FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 26 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE THIS MORNING...
AND LINGER THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR LATER
TONIGHT WAS CANCELLED SINCE IMMINENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY ARRIVING...OR WILL BE ARRIVING IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE CARE NOW TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE
VEGETATION...AND PREPARE YOUR OUTDOOR PETS FOR THE COLD.

&&

$$

KSZ064>066-076>079-085-101800-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FR.Y.0003.091010T1000Z-091010T1400Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-STEVENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JETMORE...HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...
ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...SUBLETTE...SATANTA...CIMARRON...
MONTEZUMA...DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...HUGOTON...
MOSCOW
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE BY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER THROUGH 9
AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

KSZ063-074-075-084-101800-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KDDC.FR.Y.0003.091010T1000Z-091010T1400Z/
/O.EXB.KDDC.FZ.W.0002.091010T1000Z-091010T1800Z/
FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARDEN CITY...KALVESTA...JOHNSON CITY...
ULYSSES...ELKHART...RICHFIELD
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE FROST ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 26 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE THIS MORNING...
AND LINGER THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A HARD...KILLING FREEZE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR LATER
TONIGHT WAS CANCELLED SINCE IMMINENT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY ARRIVING...OR WILL BE ARRIVING IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

KSZ086-087-101800-
/O.CON.KDDC.FZ.A.0001.091011T0500Z-091011T1500Z/
SEWARD-MEADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERAL...KISMET...MEADE...FOWLER
451 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2009

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 28 DEGREES BY 5 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A HARD FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

UMSCHEID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THIS FORECAST WILL BE COLD, WITH MIXED PRECIP TYPES, AND HEADLINE
FOR FREEZE AND FROST.

OVERALL, VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. THE
FIRST CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE IN MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH TIER
OF COUNTIES BOTH TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
FREEZE WARNING THERE AND EXPAND IT EAST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MY CENTRAL ZONES, AM ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY WITH LOWS
EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ALSO, I WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL BUT MY SOUTHEAST FIVE COOTIES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL LIKELY
DRIVE COLD AIR FROM THE WYOMING AREA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR.
FOR NOW, INTRODUCED SMALL CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE, FIRST IN MY
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 12Z SATURDAY, AND SLOWLY ADVANCED THE
LIGHT PRECIP SOUTHEASTWARD, CHANGING THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OR SO TO A
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE. WILL KEEP THE PRECIP
TYPE LIQUID AS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND NOT CHANGE TO A LIQUID/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MIX UNTIL 16Z OR SO. BY 18Z, WILL SPLIT THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE (LIGHT) IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF, AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.  IN EITHER AREA, DO NOT EXPECT OVER 0.02 INCH OF
MEASURABLE LIQUID, DUE MAINLY TO THE EXTREMELY COLD NATURE OF THE AIR.
TEMPERATURES WONT GO VERY FAR TOMORROW, AND WORDING SHOULD COME
OUT WITH NEAR STEADY. IN HAYS, THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE FROM 31
TO 35F, WHILE P28 WILL RANGE FROM 36 TO 40F.

SINCE SATURDAY WILL NOT WARM MUCH, AND THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR (NORTHEAST OF) OUR AREA, EXPECT
A HARD FREEZE TO HIT MUCH OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH A FREEZE
WATCH NORTHWEST OF A MEADE TO ST JOHN LINE. TOMORROWS SHIFT CAN
ADJUST AS NEEDED.

SINCE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT ON SUNDAY TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST, A
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT LIFT OVER A COLD DOME
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTH, AND JUST LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN THE SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE WARMING BUT NOT DUE TO THE
SUN, BUT RATHER THE SLOW ENTRAINMENT OF WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

DAYS 3-7...

EXTENDED FORECAST IS TURNING INTO ONE HUGE HEADACHE AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE ARCTIC AIR.  THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHICH SHOULD HELP DEEPEN LOW PRESSURE OVER CO.  THIS SHOULD SET UP
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER AT LEAST OUR EASTERN CWA. THE NAM12, GFS,
AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME RISING TEMPS TOWARDS MONDAY
MORNING.  THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE DOWN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.  COULD VERY WELL SEE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS STILL VERY HIGH, ESPECIALLY SINCE NO
MODEL IS GOING TO HANDLE SHALLOW COLD AIR WELL.  WILL TRY AND GO
WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS FOR NOW, AND WILL BE UPDATING AS THE
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME MODERATE CONSENSUS
AS FAR AS THE UPPER FLOW, WITH ALL OF THEM HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  WITH THE COLD AFC HIGH TO
OUR NORTHEAST, THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF UPSLOPE AT LOW LEVELS,
SO WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  PRECIP
TYPE IS A TOTAL CRAP SHOOT RIGHT NOW, AS THE MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE TEMPS.  THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM,
BRINGING 850MB READINGS ABOVE 20 C INTO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE GFS
HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO IN OUR NORTHEAST.  THINK THERE COULD
VERY WELL BE A LARGE TEMP RANGE OVER OUR CWA, AND THE GFS 2 M TEMPS
SHOW THIS WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S TO
MID 50S.  THE GFS MEX IS MUCH HIGHER, BUT IS PROBABLY LEANING TOO
MUCH TOWARDS CLIMO.  IF IT IS COLDER THAN THE 2 M TEMPS ON GFS,
WHICH IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH
COLD AIR, SOME OF THE RA IN OUR NORTH COULD BE FZRA.  HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THE MODELS ARE FLIP FLOPPING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES ARE RELUCTANT TO GO VERY COLD, WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIP LIQUID.  THE SITUATION WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE FLOW OVERALL STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL.
THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME COLD AIR ERODING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, SO WILL KEEP WARMER TEMPS AROUND EHA WITH COOLER THAN
CLIMO NEAR HYS.  TEMP GRADIENT COULD VERY WELL BE HIGHER BUT WILL
START WITH AROUND 10 F FOR NOW.  THE GFS, ECMWF, AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALL BRING A STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE DOWN ON FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH.  THIS SOLUTION
IS FURTHER WEST AND COULD AGAIN TAP CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR.  STARTED
LOWERING TEMPS, AND IF THE 06Z/12Z GFS VERIFIES THEY WILL HAVE TO BE
LOWERED FURTHER, ASSUMING THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE
BACK EAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 09Z TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 KTS.  THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLD AIR.  WILL START OUT WITH MVFR AFTER
THE FRONT GOES THROUGH, BUT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE FURTHER
DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  33  28  39 /   0  30  20  30
GCK  29  35  26  39 /   0  30  20  30
EHA  30  33  27  49 /   0  30  30  30
LBL  33  35  28  44 /   0  30  30  30
HYS  28  35  27  39 /  10  30  20  30
P28  36  40  30  43 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061-062.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ SATURDAY TO 11 AM CDT
/10 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061-062.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ063>066-
074>079-084-085.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ063>066-074>079-084>087.

&&

FN12/26/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-101000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
446 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009 /346 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MID DAY SATURDAY.
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH AREAL COVERAGE
INCREASING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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