Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TSTMS HAVE BECOME AT LEAST SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN WY AND NW CO LIFTS ENE OVER MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.  MOST RECENTLY...THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WY/NORTH CENTRAL CO.  WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY STORMS...THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS APPEARS
TO BE CONFINED MORE ALONG SE WY BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.  SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.  UPPER LOW OVER NW NV/SE OREGON NOW WILL MOVE OVER SW ID
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ID FRIDAY BEFORE
LIFTING INTO NW WY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO MT AND NORTHERN WY
SATURDAY.  NAM IS A BIT FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS ON THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW.  PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL EASE INTO FAR WESTERN
CWA LATE TONIGHT AND BE NEAR A KDGW-KLAR LINE AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  DOWNSLOPE SW WINDS WILL PUSH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF CWA FRIDAY...SO HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO THAT AREA AND MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A FEW TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO
THE DAKOTAS. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP THE INHERITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
I-25.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AND FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE.  OVERALL FUELS REMAIN FAIRLY GREEN THOUGH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JLH
LONG TERM...SJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

WYZ061>067-069-071130-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-068-070-071130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-GOSHEN-PINE BLUFFS-
1103 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

WYZ060-062230-
NIOBRARA-
327 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NIOBRARA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 326 PM MDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF COW CREEK...OR 41 MILES NORTH OF LUSK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
GET INDOORS IF POSSIBLE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

JLH