Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
200 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW NOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKYS TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING.  SFC
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL WY BY THIS
EVENING AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND DYNAMICS
PASSING OVER THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE PANHANDLE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT WITH DRY AND QUITE BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY IN
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT.  AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE SRN MTNS CLOSE TO THE
COLORADO BORDER WEDS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CREEPS BACK UP
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  A DISTURBANCE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK OFF SOME LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
FRI AND SAT AND THE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.  DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE ON SUN...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.  FINALLY...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS MT FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WHERE LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES.  GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE VCTY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST
OR NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS FALLING OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY CARBON AND
ALBANY COUNTIES WILL ACCELERATE DRYING BUT FUELS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST THUS CONCERNS MINIMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ068>070-141145-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
205 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. THE AIR WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN...MAINLY OVER EXTREME EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ059>067-141145-
CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-
205 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
414 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             6 N LA GRANGE           41.73N 104.16W
07/13/2009  M0.50 INCH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0342 PM     HAIL             20 W ALBIN              41.42N 104.49W
07/13/2009  M0.25 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL

&&

MWEILAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
439 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

NEZ020-054-055-WYZ070-132345-
BANNER-CHEYENNE-KIMBALL-PINE BLUFFS-
439 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LARAMIE...NORTHERN
KIMBALL...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN BANNER COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 439 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALBIN...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF KIMBALL...
MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  8 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISBURG BY 520 PM MDT.
  BIGHORN MOUNTAIN BY 545 PM MDT.

RUBIN

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