Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
257 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BUT ONLY
SOME TSTMS MAINLY BETWEEN KLAR AND KCYS SO FAR. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT THROUGH NERN WY CURRENTLY
MAY BE DAMPENING THINGS JUST A BIT. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN NV AND SWRN UT AND THIS FEATURE WILL
CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ODDLY ENOUGH...IF TIMING OF THE LATTER
SHORTWAVE IS LIKE THE NAM SHOWS...IT WILL BE EXITING LATER FRI
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO LIMIT OUR SEVERE CHANCES THEN. FOR
THIS EVENING... A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE PER SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK...WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. FLOW ALOFT
WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM WSW TONIGHT TO MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AND THEN
WNW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY ON SATURDAY...SO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS
LOOK TO BE IN ORDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MONSOONAL FLOW AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT
OFF THE MONSOONAL FLOW WITH LITTLE RAIN FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE FROM KDGW TO KCDR. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY THOUGH THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS FROM 6-8K FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL CONCERNS AT MOST WITH FUELS STILL MAINLY GREEN AND RHS
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES PLUS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JLH
LONG TERM...EISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1042 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-064-066>070-031130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE RANGE-
PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1042 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ061>063-065-031130-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1042 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND PART OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
734 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

WYZ064-030230-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
734 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 733 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAFFEE POINT...OR 30 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

RJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
806 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

NEZ002-003-030300-
BOX BUTTE-DAWES-
806 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DAWES COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

AT 807 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAND CANYON...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HAY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
826 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

NEZ002-003-030330-
BOX BUTTE-DAWES-
826 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BOX BUTTE AND
SOUTHERN DAWES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM MDT...

AT 826 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELMONT...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHADRON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

RJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
859 PM MDT THU JUL 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             8 N LARAMIE             41.43N 105.58W
07/02/2009  M1.00 INCH       ALBANY             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0308 PM     HAIL             6 N LARAMIE             41.40N 105.58W
07/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       ALBANY             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJOR HAIL

0428 PM     HAIL             CHUGWATER               41.76N 104.82W
07/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       PLATTE             WY   PUBLIC

0430 PM     HAIL             CHUGWATER               41.76N 104.82W
07/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       PLATTE             WY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HEAVY RAIN AND GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL EVERYWHERE.

0445 PM     HAIL             CHUGWATER               41.76N 104.82W
07/02/2009  M1.75 INCH       PLATTE             WY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FROM 430 TO 445 PM HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED
            HAIL 3.5 INCHES DEEP.

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NW HAWK SPRINGS       41.88N 104.39W
07/02/2009  E60.00 MPH       GOSHEN             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY...NO HAIL YET...BUT IT LOOKS
            LIKE IT WANTS TO.

0637 PM     HAIL             6 NNW MORRILL           42.04N 103.97W
07/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       SIOUX              NE   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     21 N HARRISON           42.99N 103.88W
07/02/2009  E60.00 MPH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.

0750 PM     HAIL             18 NNE HARRISON         42.93N 103.75W
07/02/2009  E0.75 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL, ENOUGH TO LOOK LIKE SNOW DRIFTS
            AND OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.

&&

AAH

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