Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
159 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
STORMS FIRING NOW PRIMARILY OVER THE COLORADO MTNS WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SE WY MTNS.  LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH LIS AND CAPES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. UPPER WINDS STRONGER BUT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT INCREASED BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE.  ALSO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE IS FAIRLY WELL CAPPED NOW
AND MAY NOT BREAK IT WITH LACK OF ANY BOUNDARIES THUS CONVECTION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT THERE.  STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE ESE
THUS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER DAY FOR STRONG STORMS PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS/UPSLOPE
RESULTING IN BETTER SHEAR VALUES.  BEST CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. MEANWHILE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BACKING TO SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THIS ALONG WITH DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PULL BACK EAST
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WARMER SATURDAY IN RETURN FLOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH A
WARMING TREND BACK TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CREATING INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY CLOSE TO THE
WY MTNS INTO THIS EVENING IN WDLY SCTD SHOWERS/TSTRMS OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  MORE WIDESPREAD TSTRMS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SARATOGA AND AT SINCLAIR...THE ENCAMPMENT
RIVER AT RIVERSIDE...AND THE LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE ARE CONTINUING
TO FLOW NEAR BANK FULL LEVELS DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. FLOWS ON THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ASSUMING NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS ADDED TO THESE BASINS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...RE
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...CARPENTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
214 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2009

NEZ054-WYZ059-064-066>070-051045-
KIMBALL-CONVERSE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-
CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
214 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE LARAMIE AND SNOWY RANGES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  SOMEWHAT BETTER ATMOSPHERIC WIND PATTERNS
COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSE TO THE COLORADO BORDER.  THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ001>003-019>021-055-WYZ060>063-065-051045-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-CHEYENNE-
NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
214 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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