Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Cheyenne, WY

000 
WWUS85 KCYS 262127
RFWCYS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
327 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON...

.BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN WYOMING.  GUSTY WEST WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON COUNTY SATURDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

WYZ293-270100-
/O.CON.KCYS.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090927T0100Z/
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
327 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN WYOMING...293

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS85 KCYS 270102
RFWCYS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
702 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009


WYZ293-270215-
/O.EXP.KCYS.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090927T0100Z/
NORTH AND SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
702 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN WYOMING...293

WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THE
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

HAHN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
205 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT TONIGHT OVER THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SAT THROUGH SUN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE
WEST COAST AND MOVES INLAND.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN MRNG AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUN EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON SAT WITH LOW RHS.  AFTER COORDINATING WITH
DISPATCH OFFICES...WILL LET THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CARBON COUNTY
FOR SAT CONTINUE AND LET EVENING SHIFT UPDATE TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT AND
AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES CREEPING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AND AFTER. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EARLIER
IDEA...OF SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO CARBON COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH MORE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS THIS UPPER TROUGH
OPEN...DRIVING THE FROPA THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...CLOSES THE UPPER LOW OFF OVER ID ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE EVENTUAL FROPA HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER
AND FASTER WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE SLOWER CLOSED SOLUTION.
THE UKMET IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. IF THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS
ARE USED AS INDICATORS...THE UPPER CUT-OFF WILL BE THE OUTCOME.
BUT...GIVEN THE TIMING AND DURATION UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT
GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MODEL TIMING DISPARITIES OF THE FROPA. IN EITHER
SCENARIO...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY HAS PROMPTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY FROM MID MORNING SAT UNTIL SAT
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT RHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     FIRE WEATHER ZONE 293.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KMD
LONG TERM...HAHN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1000 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2009

WYZ059>070-261130-
CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-
CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1000 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE WINDY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-261130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-
1000 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE