Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS State College, PA

000 
WWUS51 KCTP 161806
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

PAC081-105-161815-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090516T1830Z/
POTTER PA-LYCOMING PA-
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT EAST OF POTTER COUNTY AND NORTH OF LYCOMING 
COUNTY...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4192 7721 4159 7700 4155 7723 4154 7760
      4171 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 251DEG 18KT 4163 7740

$$

PAC117-161830-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090516T1830Z/
TIOGA PA-
206 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LEONARD HARRISON STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WELLSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 7721 4159 7700 4155 7723 4154 7760
      4171 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 251DEG 18KT 4163 7740

$$

FORECASTER: BEACHLER

000 
WWUS51 KCTP 161827
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

PAC117-161837-
/O.EXP.KCTP.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090516T1830Z/
TIOGA PA-
227 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TIOGA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
230 PM EDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4192 7721 4159 7700 4155 7723 4154 7760
      4171 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 251DEG 18KT 4166 7726

$$

FORECASTER: BEACHLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY...TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. FAIR
WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A WEAK FRONT
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE
MID AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311 IN EFFECT TIL 00Z...

ACTIVITY IS BREAKING OUT NOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WARRANTING
THE ISSUANCE OF THE WATCH. HEATING CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL BUT
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND CAPES HAVE INCREASED ACCORDING
TO RUC ANALS TO THE VICINITY OF 1500-2000J. SEVERAL SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS HAVE ALREADY FORMED AND AS THE UPPER FORCING INCREASES
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD...STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

MAIN THREAT IS FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT OVER NERN PA...CLOSER
TO THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE
ENHANCED...POSSIBLY INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT THERE.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THIS
HOUR...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND. SYSTEM
IS POISED TO PASS AT A PRETTY GOOD TIME OF DAY FOR LOCAL SEVERE
STORMS AND MANY INDICATORS ARE POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION.
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS AN OBSCENE AMOUNT OF CAPE...IN EXCESS OF
3000J BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GEM/NAM KEEP THINGS MORE
REALISTIC WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 600-1500J ON AVERAGE. 03Z
SREF SHOWS A >90% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1000J OF CAPE OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA...WITH AROUND 40% PROB OF MORE THAN 2000J OVER
SRN AREAS BY 21Z. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST
BUT MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 40KT WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.

A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A TALL THIN CAPE PROFILE FROM FCST
NAM SOUNDINGS WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IMPLYING LESS CLOUD
COVER AND MORE HEATING. SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE IS THE LIKELY BEST
OUTCOME AND AS ALWAYS IN THE LOCAL AREA...AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE THE GOVERNING FACTOR DETERMINING HOW UNSTABLE WE GET AND HOW
ACTIVE THINGS WILL BE LATER TODAY.

HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
THREAT OF STORMS INCREASING EASTWARD THEREAFTER. 24HR QPF TAKEN
FROM A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODEL/SREF GUID RANGES BTWN 0.50-0.75
ON AVG...BUT PWS POOLING TO +2-3SD WILL SUPPORT BRIEFLY INTENSE
RNFL RATES AND LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS. TAPERED POPS OFF FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE STATE AND EXITS
SERN PA BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
TOUGH AXIS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST TOWARDS MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...ALLOWING BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION. RIDGE CENTER SHUD BE WEST OF PA SUN...ALLOWING FOR A COOL
DRY NWSTRLY FLOW. CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE BY SUN
MORNING...WITH DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPING AFT 16Z. ENUF COLD AIR
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR ANY SFC HEATING TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...BUT ANTICIPATE SKIES TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND CLEAR SUN
EVE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...POSSIBLE A FEW UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SUSQ-VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS RESIDES AROUND CHCS FOR PRECIP
AND TEMPS. 500MB TROUGH AXIS STEADILY SWINGS EAST...AS SUB-SEASONAL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE SUN THRU MON.
CONSID SUBSIDENCE SHUD ERODE ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS SUN AFTN PROVIDING A
MOSTLY CLEAR SUN NGT...PRIMING THE SFC CONDS FOR GOOD RADIATION. DEW
PT/S SHUD FALL INTO THE 20S...HOWEVER ANTICIPATE PATCHY/WIDESPREAD
FROST MON MORNING. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRM...ARND -2 TO -3 DEG
C...SUB-SEASONAL MAX T/S EXPECTED FOR MON AFTN. ARND 60
NORTH...LOW/MID 60S CENTRAL/SOUTH.

TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSIVELY SLIDES EAST TUE...ALLOWING BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL STATES TO MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TUE/WED/THUR. OPER GFS PAINTS AN INTENSE VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC LAYING A BNDRY SOUTH...POSSIBLY DRIFTING SOME CLOUDS AND CHC
POPS TUE EVE/EARLY WED. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

850MB TEMPS STEADILY WARM BY WEEKS END TO 1 TO 2 STD DEV ABV
NRM...THUS EXPECT SOLID 70S BY THUR/FRI AND ARND 80 ACROSS
SUSQ-VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PROBLEM CENTERS ON THE ACTIVITY WITH AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND LARGE
HAIL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS PROBABLE AFTER THE SHOWERS PULL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
REGION-WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR FLYING SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A TIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR/MVFR IN SCT SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LACORTE
NEAR TERM...LACORTE
SHORT TERM...BEACHLER
LONG TERM...BEACHLER
AVIATION...LACORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
129 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-171730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
129 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.