Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY SEVERE...WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUBSIDENCE-INDUCED STRATUS DECK FROM THIS MORNING IS STILL HANGING
TOUGH FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE NY BORDER JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WITHIN AREA OF
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SPEED SHEAR. ADDITIONAL CELLS
TRYING TO FIRE IN THE UNSTABLE BUT LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. ASIDE FROM MY
EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE
NY BORDER.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET IN THE
SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
500MB TROUGH AXIS STEADILY SLIDES EAST SAT...WITH A SECONDARY
STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY PROGGED TO PIVOT AROUND SW QUADRANT SAT
MORNING. UNSEASONABLY COOL 850 MB TEMPS WILL CONT TO ADVECT
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE INTENSE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER
MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST.
CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS.

MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING SAT NGT WILL BE DEFLECTED EAST...AS FRONTAL BNDRY
APPROACHES FROM WEST SUN. THETA-E RIDGE POKES EAST SUN AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BNDRY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHC SHRA/TSRA. RIDGE CENTERED
OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST IS POISED TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
500MB SHORTWAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE GAINING CONFIDENCE...AND BRINGS
A WEAK NW FLOW REGIME BACK INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BLW NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD WITH A CHC OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESP OVR THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING ALONG THE PA NY BORDER WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INTIALLY PUT IN VCTS FOR A THREE
TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL ADD SPECIFICS AS
STORMS MOVE TOWARD ANY PARTICULAR AIRFIELD.

SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA SO THE SHORT TERM
FORECASTS ALL INCLUDE AT LEAST VCSH. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
CONVECTION BY 27/00Z. POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE BEFORE 27/12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...VFR...THEN MVFR IN NMRS SHRA/TS AFTN/EVE.
MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...MVFR PSBL IN SCT AFTN SHRA/TS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/BEACHLER
AVIATION...MARTIN/TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

PAZ004-271900-
WARREN-
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING TRIGGERING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ005-006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-271900-
MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ017>019-025>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-271900-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-
COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ024-033-271900-
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
254 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING TRIGGERING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>