Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST IN
SERIES OF FRONTS WORKING TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND
EARLY THIS WEEKEND TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS. IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE
TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST. SUNDAY THROUGH PERHAPS TUESDAY
SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND
SHOULD MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD INTO WARREN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPED POPS AND QPF IN NW PA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS LINE SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD SPREADING STORMS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TO THE SOUTHWEST THE S/W ON WAVER VAPOR HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SW PA. THIS LINE IS MOVING ACROSS SOMERSET COUNTY
AND SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST UPPED POPS IN SW TO 90 PERCENT AND
TAPERED OFF TO ENE. LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS OF WESTERN PA HAVE A
GOOD SHOT FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST.

EVEN A FEW STORMS IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WHERE SOME
STATIONS...MOSTLY SECONDARY STATIONS...ARE IN THE LOWER 90S. MOST
AIRPORTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S. BUT DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 70S. ANY SHOWERS DOWN IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CAN PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD TAIL OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO DRY IT OUT IN WEST AND SAG
SOUTHWARD. THUS AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE STALLED
OVER SOUTHERN PA/MD REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD SERVE AS BOUNDARY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SREF/SUPER
ENSEMBLE SHOW HIGHER POPS IN SOUTH. MADE GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH
LOWER POPS AS ONE MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH. FARTHER NORTH IN PA
TOMORROW THE BETTER. IT SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRIER WEDNESDAY OVER
MOST REGIONS. CHANGED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POTENTIALLY A PROBLEM ON THURSDAY. WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PW VALUES...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF ACTIVE AND VERY MILD
BEFORE TURNING DRIER AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
IT WILL ALSO KEEP THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY OFF TO OUR EAST AND
OFFSHORE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS PA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND INCREASING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT...ANTICIPATE THAT THE STORMS ON FRI MAY BE STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TO THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN AND SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AND DRIER
WITH HIGH TEMPS 5-10F COOLER AND NIGHTTIME LOWS 10-15F COOLER.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMFW COME INTO PLAY BY MIDWEEK
AS THEY HANDLE PROGRESSION OF NEXT TROUGH DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE
GFS FASTER. FOR NOW HANDLED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NMRS SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. HENCE EXPECT WIDELY VARYING FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TURNING TO MVFR/IFR IN THESE
STORMS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION SHUTS DOWN...AND A
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAUEL HIGHLANDS...TO PREVENT FOG
FROM SETTLING IN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

THUR-FRI...MAINLY MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...FOG...AHD HZ.
SAT/SUN...MORNING FOG...THEN MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/RXR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DICKEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-190930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
527 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
437 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

PAZ064-065-182130-
ADAMS PA-YORK PA-
437 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND WEST
CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES...

AT 435 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EMMITSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GERMANTOWN AROUND 450 PM...BONNEAUVILLE
AROUND 500 PM...NEW OXFORD AROUND 510 PM...ABBOTTSTOWN AROUND 520 PM
AND SPRING GROVE AROUND 530 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...
STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

LAT...LON 3975 7736 4003 7696 3987 7684 3972 7713
      3972 7734

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

PAZ064-065-182130-
ADAMS PA-YORK PA-
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ADAMS AND WESTERN YORK
COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GETTYSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. ALSO EXPECT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BONNEAUVILLE AROUND 500 PM...NEW OXFORD
AROUND 515 PM...HANOVER AROUND 520 PM...ABBOTTSTOWN AROUND 525 PM AND
EAST BERLIN AROUND 530 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...
STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

LAT...LON 3978 7743 4002 7719 4008 7690 3972 7670
      3971 7730

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
519 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

PAZ052-057-058-182215-
DAUPHIN PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
519 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
DAUPHIN...SOUTHEASTERN NORTHUMBERLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 15 MILES
SOUTH OF SELINSGROVE TO 6 MILES NORTH OF LINGLESTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING BETWEEN TWO
AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ONE NORTH OF PILLOW AN LECK
KILL...AND THE SECOND TO THE SOUTH OF ELLENDALE FORGE AND DEHART
DAM.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR LYKENS AROUND 530 PM...ROUGH AND READY
AROUND 545 PM AND MOUNT CARMEL AROUND 600 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 110.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209...STATE
ROAD 61.

LAT...LON 4060 7640 4055 7653 4056 7654 4052 7660
      4040 7687 4060 7684 4082 7641 4080 7640

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATE COLLEGE           40.79N 77.86W
08/18/2009                   CENTRE             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN STATE COLLEGE
            BOROUGH.

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE BELLEFONTE        40.95N 77.64W
08/18/2009                   CENTRE             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 CENTER REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN MARION
            TOWNSHIP.

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ICKESBURG               40.49N 77.29W
08/18/2009                   PERRY              PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 CENTER REPORTED SEVERAL TREES ACROSS ROADS NEAR
            ICKESBURG.

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W CARLISLE            40.20N 77.24W
08/18/2009  E65.00 MPH       CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED WIND GUST AND TREE LIMBS DOWN IN WEST
            PENNSBORO.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S CARLISLE            40.17N 77.20W
08/18/2009                   CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN SOUTH MIDDLETON TOWNSHIP.

0515 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LOYALSOCKVILLE          41.32N 76.92W
08/18/2009                   LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WATCHING FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LOYALSOCKVILLE MOVING
            NORTHEAST.

&&

MACH