Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAKING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE SATURDAY AND
STALLING OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA. SCATTERED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION
IS BEING MAINTAINED CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS... WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG
PRODUCING STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR ISOLATED BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND
PEA SIZED HAIL IN SOME LOCATIONS. STORM MOTION TO THE ESE AT 20KTS
OR SO KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS
LOW...DESPITE THE HEAVY RAINS FROM YESTERDAY. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 6C/KM SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY QUIET OVERNIGHT AND COOLER
CONDITIONS AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... THERE MAY BE PATCHY LIGHT HIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DEEPEN YET AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS WILL FINALLY RESEMBLE SOMETHING CLOSE
TO SUMMER TIME READINGS AS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEE MAXES
APPROACHING 90. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS (INTHE U70S TO MID 80S) WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON
SUNDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE
TO THE EASTERN HALF AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES. HIGHER PWATS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH NOTICABLE 850 MB. THIS WILL AT
LEAST KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS SAT EVE/NIGHT...ALONG WITH A DECENT AREAWIDE RAINFALL IN THE
RANGE OF 1-1.5 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS.

HIGHER PWATS LINGER IN THE SE POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN AT MID LEVELS...SO COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE PLANNING A
SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST. HENCE KEPT A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE SE.

MILD TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN DIP BACK
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST THROUGH MON...ALTHOUGH A BIT MILDER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE WESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND CORRESPONDING WESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF UPPER TROUGH. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE
STARTS TO EDGE INTO PA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PUSHING THE
500MB TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN
THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED AS THE CWA WILL BE
SPARED FROM THE ENDLESS STRING OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION WOULD BE A LESS DRAMATIC WESTWARD
SHIFT FOR THE 500MB TROUGH...KEEPING THE CWA WELL WITHIN THE STORM
TRACK. REGARDLESS...PERSISTENT S/SE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
FAIRLY HUMID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE DEWPOINTS
WILL NEAR 70 AND HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND SHRA/TSRA OVER
CENTRAL PA RTES THIS EVENING. KEEPING CBS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING GIVEN MANY STORM TOPS OVER 30K FEET WITH SMALL HAIL
AND SFC WNDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 30 KTS.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVELS STRATIFY/COOL.
CLEARING SKIES COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AFT MIDNIGHT...AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE S/W.

SAT WILL FEATURE VFR CONDS AFTER ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AS A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN AND PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MORNINGS
GENERALLY VFR TRANSITIONING TO MVFR CIGS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA CHCS
EACH AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-WED...MRNG VFR WITH MVFR IN SCT AFTN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/DICKEY
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...DICKEY/DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-250845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
439 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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