Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 170002
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

PAC111-170145-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-090817T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET PA-
802 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR
SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 754 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOMERSET COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORM IS 
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF SOMERSET...ALONG ROUTE 219 AND ROUTE 
653...GARRETT ROAD. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN IN THE LAST 2 HOURS EAST OF ROCKWOOD.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
SOMERSET...ROCKWOOD...ROBERTS...MURDOCK...SHAMROCK...GARRETT AND 
BERLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOCATIONS ALONG WILSON CREEK AND THE 
HEADWATERS OF THE CASSELMAN RIVER. SHARP RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ON 
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7934 4026 7892 4025 7890 4024 7889
      4025 7887 4022 7874 3973 7898

$$

FORECASTER: JUNG

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 170141
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
941 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

PAC111-170147-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-090817T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOMERSET PA-
941 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM EDT FOR SOMERSET
COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY HAVE DISSIPATED. NO 
FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3973 7934 4026 7892 4025 7890 4024 7889
      4025 7887 4022 7874 3973 7898

$$

FORECASTER: JUNG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATER
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ALL FOG/HAZE IS GONE AND CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A
FAIR NUMBER OF CU OVER PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONALLY...KCCX HAS SHOWN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PA. THESE STORMS
ARE QUITE SMALL AND NOT MOVING VERY FAST AT ALL. STORMS ARE ONLY
LASTING ON THE ORDER OF 30 MIN BEFORE DYING.

IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE OF THESE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE STORMS ARE TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING. SO ONCE
SUNSET OCCURS...EXPECT STORMS TO DISAPPEAR AS WELL AS THE SMALL CU
THAT ARE ALL OVER CENTRAL PA.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMP FORECAST AND CLOUD COVER FOR NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES SO BASICALLY
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND TOMORROW AT MINIMUM ACCORDING TO PA DEP. WORST AREA IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...DUE TO A LACK
OF MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH TUEDAY.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG. THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH JUST ISOLATED
TSTORMS IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE LAST WEEK...AS
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTN... HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 90S. AIR QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE ACCORDING TO PA DEP...WITH THE WORST IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. SEE AQACTP PRODUCT FOR MORE INFO.

WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUE AS DYNAMICS LIFT
TO THE NE. SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE NW BY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LATER IN
THE DAY. ALSO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
BEST CHANCE BY 12Z WED WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEWPOINTS FCST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY ON WED. S PA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

FRONT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT BY THU. THU AND FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF HUMIDITY.

OVERALL...I DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THE LONGER TERM
PACKAGE...MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HAVE TO WATCH TROPICS. EXPECT WESTERLIES TO DROP FURTHER
SOUTH BY MID WEEK...BUT STILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR ANY
SYSTEM TRYING BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL FOG WAS GONE BY MID MORNING AND VERY FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE NOW.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING MORE AND MORE SMALL CUMULUS
STARTING TO GROW. KCCX ACTUALLY IS PICKING UP ONE SHOWER THAT
DEVELOPED ON THE HUNTINGDON/FULTON COUNTY LINE...AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY. IT IS ALSO
SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.

CU ARE STAYING SMALL AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SCATTERED INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. HOWEVER
NOT AS MUCH FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE HAD LAST NIGHT OR
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...DO NOT EXPECT ANYONE TO DROP TO LIFR DUE TO
FOG.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ON WED INTO THU...WITH NEXT COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY VFR ASIDE FROM PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG.
TUE-THUR...VFR/MVFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ONDREJIK/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...ONDREJIK/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ONDREJIK/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-170745-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
336 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

PAZ056-162130-
PERRY PA-
505 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY...

AT 504 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTH OF
LEWISTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR KISTLER AROUND 525 PM AND LOYSVILLE AROUND
530 PM.

LAT...LON 4032 7737 4027 7746 4035 7761 4037 7756
      4040 7755 4044 7747 4046 7741 4041 7720
      4027 7730 4029 7735 4026 7739 4026 7741

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: JUNG