Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 101224
FFSCTP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
824 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

PAC083-123-101545-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-090810T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
824 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
WARREN AND WESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 820 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED WATER OVER ROUTE 
69 IN CHANDLERS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN 
REPORTED ALONG THE CONEWANGO CREEK BETWEEN WARREN AND THE NEW YORK 
BORDER. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY ALONG CONEWANGO 
CREEK AND HATCH RUN SOUTH OF RUSSELL...JACKSON RUN AND HEMLOCK RUN.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS AREA AND WILL MOVE 
BACK INTO THE WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS 
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BRADFORD 
AND WARREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE BY CALLING YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS OR BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7850 4169 7861 4171 7963 4200 7962

$$

FORECASTER: TYBURSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LVL RIDGE CRESTING OVR PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY...PUSHING
RING OF FIRE NORTH OF THE BORDER. LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PWAT
PRODUCT SHOWING EVIDENCE OF THIS...AS BAND OF HIGHEST PWATS HAS
LIFTED INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE LAST FEW HRS. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHRA CURRENTLY NOTED OVR THE NW MTNS...ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EARLIER MCS. THIS AREA WILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

FOR LATER TODAY...STILL A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE RESERVED FOR THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS REGION
FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE N
PLAINS. LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE
CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH MID LVL FLOW NOT AS STRONG
AS YESTERDAY...SVR WX STILL A THREAT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LYR SHEAR ARND 30KTS COULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED
LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS...MAINLY NORTHERN PA CLOSEST TO UPPER LVL JET.

ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX READINGS AS HIGH AS THE M90S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDICES TO ARND 100F FOR SEVERAL
HRS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH DIURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA THRU THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
PRESSES SE INTO THE AREA.

SRHA/TSRA EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE ALONG SFC COLD FRONT
TUESDAY...AS IT TRACKS SE ACROSS THE STATE. MREF PLUMES STILL
INDICATING MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT...ESP
SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE SVR WX CAN/T BE RULED OUT. DRIER/CO0LER WX
SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COSMETIC CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS THUR THROUGH SUN. THE
CHALLENGES FOR THUR RESIDE AROUND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AS
WEAK MID-LVL VORT MAX SLOWLY SLIDES NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 500MB WAVE PATTERN HOLDS A BROAD RIDGE WITH A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SFC RIDGE SHUD
REMAIN AN INFLUENCE THUR/FRI...WHICH SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ANTICIPATE WITH PLACEMENT OF BERMUDA RIDGE A STEADY
RETURN MOISTURE FEED FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH NE INTO THE
CAROLINAS...THUS HAVE KEPT A SLT CHC FOR PRECIP FRI/SAT FOCUS ATTM
WILL BE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ-VALLEY. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE ARND SEASONAL
CONDS...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE LOW/MID TEENS.

QUIET WEATHER THEN RETURNS TO THE REGION SAT...HOWEVER A HANDFUL OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROG SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA SAT/SUN. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BASED ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SO HAVE OPTED
FOR A DRY SAT NGT THRU MON. TEMPS ALSO REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
TIER...INCLUDING KBFD...BUT SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS SCATTERED ABOUT CENTRAL PA
WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST AT 10 KTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. THEN STARTING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE VFR WILL BE
INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND WEST...AND LATER DURING THE EVENING IN THE EAST AS WELL.
STILL KEPT TAFS PRETTY GENERIC AS IT WILL REMAIN VFR MUCH OF THE
TIME AND CAN/T PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN STORMS WILL AFFECT A GIVEN
POINT YET. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER ROUND
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY 12Z TUE ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA.
WED AND THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR. ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN HOURS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...BEACHLER
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-110945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
532 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ046-049>053-056>059-110945-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
532 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ033>035-110945-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
532 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-063>066-110945-
FRANKLIN-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
532 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

PAZ004-005-101130-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
655 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND WESTERN
MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 654 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CLARENDON AROUND 700 AM...SCANDIA AROUND 705
AM...KINZUA DAM AROUND 710 AM...LUDLOW AROUND 720 AM AND MARSHBURG
AROUND 730 AM.

LAT...LON 4200 7918 4201 7893 4198 7858 4164 7876
      4184 7938 4201 7929 4201 7918

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: KF