Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT GENERATED OVERCAST SKIES...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT LEAVING THE AREA IN DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME
OF A MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
TROPOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH 23C ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND 27C
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD GENERATE
NEAR-RECORD HEAT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW. DECIDED FORECAST A
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR CORPUS CHRISTI TOMORROW (THE FORECAST IS
100F...THE RECORD FOR CRP IS 98F SET IN 1947). HOWEVER...THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR VICTORIA IS 110F SET IN 1939. THE FORECAST FOR
VCT IS 101F SO THE RECORD FOR VICTORIA SHOULD BE SAFE. HEAT INDICES
AREAWIDE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 NORTH...AND 110 TO 115
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
THE DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING ONE TO TWO
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
WILL BE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SOAR BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY WITH
READINGS NEAR 110 OUT WEST TO 102 AT VCT/NQI. WILL PROBABLY NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
SOME SLIGHT COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS FRIDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES. WILL SHOW A 1-2 DEGREE DROP FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH SUCH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...WILL TAKE THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY. THE GFS...AND ECMWF TO A LESSER
EXTENT...SHOW AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE GFS EVEN HINTS AT A FAIRLY STRONG TUTT LOW
MOVING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND...POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR
SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY
MORNING BUT SUSPECT THIS MODEL MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TOO LONG. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OF 10 PERCENT FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAYS SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SHOULD TAPER OFF TO BELOW
SCA CRITERION AFTER 10 PM. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
GULF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78 100  78  99  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76 101  77 102  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84 110  83 109  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             81 107  80 106  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  94  81  93  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 108  77 107  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 105  79 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  94  82  94  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

TM/95...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-081000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR JIM WELLS...
DUVAL...AND WEBB COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES 110 TO 112 DEGREES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
BAFFIN BAY TO CORPUS CHRISTI BAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TM/TE/MB

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