Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STORMS TO THE
NORTHEAST...TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH BUT AS OF THIS WRITING NOT
MUCH OVER THE CWFA EXCEPT CALHOUN/ARANSAS AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS
STILL HAVE TIME TO GET GOING THE OUR CWFA AS SEVERAL HOURS OF
HEATING TO GO AND ALSO STORMS DEVELOPING IN SAN ANTONIO AREA ALONG
FRONT HAVE POTENTIAL TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
(FOR WHAT THEY ARE WORTH)...SHOWING A WEAK JET STREAK COMING DOWN
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH COULD/SHOULD HELP KEEP AT LEAST SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY GOING DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...AM
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIT WETTER BUT...AS
HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HAS ISSUES (SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AGAIN). THUS...WILL CALL FOR LOW CHANCE POPS
MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS JET REMAINS AND BOUNDARY MOVES IN. STILL SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BORDERLINE PWATS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO HAVE KEPT 20 POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SHOULD BE A
QUIET NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BRINGS THE DRIER AIR IN.
GENERALLY STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT BUT
THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SEAS 2 TO AT MOST 3 FEET
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION)...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN
FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTH AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOULD BE WELL BELOW SCA.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SOUTH
TEXAS FRIDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS CAPPING OUR
ATMOSPHERE AND KEEPING THINGS DRY. FRI MORNING WILL START OUT COOL
DUE TO A WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND WHEN THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES OUT WEST REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY AND
LOW/MID 90S ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN WED AS A
S/W MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER ALL OF THE DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  93  69  93  73  /  30  20  10  10   0
VICTORIA          68  94  64  94  68  /  40  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            75 101  74 104  76  /  20  20  10  10   0
ALICE             72 100  70  98  72  /  30  20  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          74  91  73  90  76  /  30  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           71  99  69 101  72  /  30  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        69  96  68  96  73  /  30  20  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       74  91  74  89  77  /  30  20  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
448 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-040000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
448 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/RG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
113 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

TXZ247-031915-
CALHOUN-
113 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 113 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF MAGNOLIA BEACH...OR 8 MILES WEST
OF PORT OCONNOR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
256 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             9 S AUSTWELL            28.26N 96.84W
06/03/2009  M1.00 INCH       ARANSAS            TX   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE REPORTED NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

JMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             9 S AUSTWELL            28.26N 96.84W
06/03/2009  E1.75 INCH       ARANSAS            TX   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            PUBLIC REPORTS OF UP TO GOLFBALL HAIL COMING INTO ARANSAS
            WILDLIFE REFUGE.

&&

GWILK

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