Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
508 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG LOW LEVEL FORCING AND ASSISTED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER
JET. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS JET EXITS AND
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI AS STRONG CAP (ALBEIT WEAKENING) REMAINS AND IS SORT OF
INDICATED BY LIGHTNING TRENDS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSHED POPS UP A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING FARTHER
SOUTH AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY. ORGANIZED LINE WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE SOUTHERN
COAST AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS NEGATIVE AND CAP IS STRONG
AND DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHING. STILL...RAISED POPS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH GIVEN STRONG SURFACE FORCING. AFTER THIS EVENING...THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN AND REMAIN SO AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
OCCUR. WITH MAIN CONCERN ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WIND. ONCE WINDS
DIE DOWN TUESDAY EVENING THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET...WITH CLOUDS
REMAINING OVER AREA WITH HIGH MOISTURE FIELDS BUT CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN MAINTAINING A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
KEEPING BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL AGREEMENT WANES AS MODELS BRING A
WAVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. FLOW
GENERALLY BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALOFT...BUT MODELS ARE QUITE FAR APART
ON THE TIMING OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES...LEADING TO LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. FOR THE
MOMENT...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE COMING AROUND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF INCREASED FORCING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HARD TO PICK A
WINNER AMONG THE MODELS THIS FAR AWAY...SO HAVE TRENDED GENERALLY
HIGHER WITH PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LET
FUTURE SHIFTS NAIL TOWN TIMING A BIT BETTER WHEN A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST CAN BE MADE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH WEBB COUNTY FLIRTING WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FROM THE
END OF THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND
CORRESPONDINGLY DRIER SOIL MOISTURE...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
WHERE THERE WAS ANY DOUBT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  86  74  86  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          71  87  70  86  71  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  99  76  96  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  91  72  91  72  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  84  75  84  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           71  93  73  92  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  88  73  89  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  84  75  83  75  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

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