Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
COASTAL BEND. MORNING LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER MONDAY THAN THIS
MORNING AS WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY WITH PATCHY CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE INTO TEXAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO ONSHORE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED AS QUICKLY OVER THE BAYS AS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCA RANGE UNTIL 15Z SO WILL
REISSUE FOR THE BAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE SCA
CONFIGURATION AS STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING
WITH VERY HIGHS SEAS OFFSHORE...AROUND 12 FEET AT BUOY 20...SUBSIDES
BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS REMAIN STRONG RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS
VERTICAL MIXING CONTINUES THERE. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG
THE COAST AT THIS TIME AS RH VALUES ARE 30-35 PERCENT. MODELS SHOW
925 MB WINDS WILL BE 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 18Z. WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL 18Z TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE U.S. THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SPRAWL FROM
WESTERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
COMING TO REST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH LEADING
TO A PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
CAUSE DEW POINTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES DIFFERING LITTLE ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE MOST PART,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES NEXT SATURDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW, SO WILL RETAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  35  72  52  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          63  32  70  45  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            70  41  80  51  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  36  75  48  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  38  67  58  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  32  78  49  84  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        67  34  73  49  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       61  42  67  57  76  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...
     LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
452 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

TXZ229>234-239>247-011100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
452 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-011100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
452 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JAR/TMT