Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
456 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN STORY THROUGH SAT WILL
BE THE WIND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO UPR TROUGH MVG EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
EXTEND FURTHER WEST THEN DURING PREVIOUS WIND EVENTS AS THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS IS WELL WEST OF THE BORDER ACROSS CEN MEXICO. NAM
SHOWS STRONGEST PGRAD TODAY SHOWING NEARLY 7 MB BETWEEN LRD AND
VCT AND 35 KTS AT H925 STILL AT 18Z MAINLY ACROSS CEN ZONES. BASED
ON THIS...BELIEVE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
AREA AND BIG QUESTION IS WHAT COS TO INCLUDE. HAVE INCLUDED ALL
WRN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION...BUT BELIEVE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIMIT WIND JUST ENOUGH ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL BEND TO PRECLUDE
WIND ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS FROM VCT TO GOLIAD
COULD GET CLOSE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SAT
AND WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ERN HALF AGAIN. FAR
WEST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WIND ON SAT AS THE
SFC TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
AND EVEN MORE ON SAT AS MOISTURE LEVELS/MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND MAY EVEN SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO SAT MORNING...BUT NOT
MENTIONING THE 10 POP SAT ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SCAS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR SRN BAYS THIS AFTN.
ONCE AGAIN...COOLER SHELF WATERS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIMIT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND THINK
THIS WILL PRECLUDE SCAS THERE...ALTHOUGH NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE INCLUDED DUE TO 7 FOOT SEAS MVG IN FROM THE OFFSHORE
AREAS WHERE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXISTS. OFFSHORE WATERS ARE
BARELY SEEING SCEC CONDITIONS AND EXPECT THESE ZONES WILL NOT
REACH SCAS AGAIN UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL MAX WINDS KICK IN.
WILL HOLD OFF AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO PULL TRIGGER FOR OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED WELL BELOW THE LOWEST
GUIDANCE THE LAST 2 DAYS AND THIS LED TO RH VALUES BELOW FORECAST
VALUES AND BELOW THE 30% RH CRITERIA BOTH DAYS. BASED ON THIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW DEWPOINTS IN LINE W/ LOWEST GUIDANCE TODAY AND
MORE IN LINE W/ RAW NAM WHICH HAS DONE BEST WITH DEWPOINTS THIS
WEEK. MIN RH VALUES STILL STOP JUST SHORT OF 30% ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY...BUT BASED ON VERY DRY VEGETATION
AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING DESPITE THE MARGINAL
RH FORECAST. INFLUENCE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER
RH VALUES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THINK RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH SAT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THROUGH TUESDAY...THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A BROAD
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS NORTH OF OUR REGION
AS WELL. AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN WEEKS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND
POSITION OF THIS FRONT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20% AND 30% RANGE
WITH THE LATTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY DAYS 7 AND 8.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  66  80  68  81  /   0  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          80  63  78  67  81  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            90  66  90  67  88  /   0  10  10  10  10
ALICE             85  64  82  66  84  /   0  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  67  76  68  76  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  66  86  66  85  /   0  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        84  65  81  66  83  /   0  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  67  76  69  77  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LASALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO... WEBB.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

MJG...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

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