Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 271425
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
925 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

TXC057-469-271530-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090527T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CALHOUN-VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLACEDO...PORT LAVACA
925 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN VICTORIA COUNTIES...

AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES HAVE 
OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL 
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHERN SIDE OF VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA AND 
POINT COMFORT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAXET
LAKES...DOWNTOWN VICTORIA...VICTORIA COLLEGE...VICTORIA COLONY CREEK
COUNTRY CLUB...VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...TELFERNER...POINT 
COMFORT...PLACEDO AND INEZ.

LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING WITH SOME 
STALLED CARS TRAPPED IN FLOOD WATERS IN PORT LAVACA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 2856 9651 2850 9647 2852 9686 2859 9714
      2871 9717 2894 9679 2885 9670 2882 9672
      2863 9660 2859 9660 2856 9653 2859 9649
      2862 9651 2863 9658 2870 9657 2870 9652
      2859 9641

$$

MJG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION. NOTE KLRD TERMINAL FORECAST
USERS...OBSERVATIONS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO COME IN SO HAVE JUST
ISSUED NON-NIL TAF.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION SO WILL DEAL WITH
THAT FIRST. THUNDER MOST LIKELY AT KVCT AS PROXIMITY OF FRONT
TIMING OF SEA-BREEZE MAKES THIS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION.
AT KCRP AND KALI...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE OCCURRING DURING
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE...SO HAVE
TEMPOS THERE. AT KLRD...CONVECTION WILL BE LATE...MOST LIKELY
INITIATING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND MOVING EAST AFTER SUNSET.
AFTER 06Z...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CONVECTION BUT BELIEVE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR ALL BUT KVCT TO WARRANT A PROB30
TSRA.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AOB MVFR WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z WITH
ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS TOWARD MORNING...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT FOG AT KVCT AND KALI AFTER 06Z. FINALLY...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO KLRD LATE...UNLESS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH IF FORMS
DELAYS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

AT KLRD THIS MORNING WILL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS. THAT IS IT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER TRICKY RAIN
FORECAST AS TIMING OF RAIN-MAKING MECHANISMS NOT IN PHASE. DYING
SECONDARY MCS YESTERDAY MORNING STABILIZED AIRMASS TOO LONG FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE MECHANISMS FOR RAIN AS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND. HOWEVER...S/W SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AND SHOWN BY GFS/NAM (MAINLY NORTH OF CWFA) WILL HAVE ITS
EFFECTS MOVE EAST BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE AND LOWERING CIN DURING
THE DAY...BELIEVE THERMALS WILL OVERCOME AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE...
AND INTERACTION OF SEA BREEZE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION. ALSO...ANOTHER WEAK LFQ OF
STJ IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
GENERALLY GO WITH PREVIOUS POP FORECAST WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER MCS FARTHER WEST DEVELOPS...AND
WHETHER DRIER AIR PUSH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. GFS AND NAM DISAGREE TOTALLY
ON THEIR CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS...THE FORMER DEVELOPING CONVECTION
(AND FEEDBACK...AGAIN) TONIGHT AND NAM BEING MUCH DRIER. ALTHOUGH
GFS OVER-DOING THINGS...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST
TONIGHT THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING (SIMILAR TO
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING). A BIT DRIER FOR THURSDAY AS FRONT
SEEPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TO JUST SOUTH OF CWFA BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SOME LOW-CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS...THINK DRYING MAY BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST TO ONLY
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...IF GOOD MCS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
AND MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING...RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY MAY NOT OCCUR TIL LATE AFTERNOON...IF AT ALL. FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSER TO GFS-MOS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECAST FOR RAIN...AS THE MORE THE RAIN IS
AROUND...THE COOLER IT WILL BE (FRONT WILL NOT COOL THINGS DOWN
MUCH BUT WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL).

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST AS BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE
WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE CWFA. BEST SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
SEEPS IN. SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE CURRENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS...THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED
POPS FRIDAY BY 10%...BUT MAINTAINED MENTION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THE AGGRESSIVE
MOISTURE RETURN THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING FOR SUNDAY. STILL...LIGHT
WINDS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED POPS BY 10% BUT
MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AS A RESULT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WAA SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING BOTH THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. BROAD MID/UPR RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  71  89  68  90  /  60  20  30  10  10
VICTORIA          88  68  89  63  92  /  60  20  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  74  95  75  96  /  30  40  20  20  10
ALICE             94  72  93  68  92  /  60  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  73  87  70  89  /  60  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           92  70  91  68  94  /  30  40  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        93  73  92  68  91  /  60  20  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       88  74  87  72  87  /  60  20  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
458 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-281100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
458 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED
EAST OF A FREER TO COTULLA LINE...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING PENNY TO QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ALSO...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR
MORE LIKELY.

GW/TM