Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
336 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NE OH/NW PA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT
PROBABLY NOT TOTALLY DIE OUT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
NEARNESS OF THE SURFACE LOW/WEAK FRONT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW OHIO WOULD BE NEAR I-71 BY 8 PM IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY USE A LEFTOVER WEATHER
PORTION IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOG AND
HAZE MAY GET A LITTLE MURKY TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY DRAGGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY GOING ON FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING AND TRICKY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WHEN
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS
SPEEDS/LOCATION WITH THE FRONT. I AM NOT PREPARED TO SAY THE FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF TOLEDO BEFORE NEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AND WILL
KEEP A LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POP FROM AROUND TOL EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER NOT PROGGED TO
DROP MUCH UNTIL LATE THURSDAY BUT JUST LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP
IT LOOKS DRIER TO THE WEST NEAR THE FRONT WHERE STORMS ARE SLOWER TO
FIRE TODAY SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON FOR ACTIVITY TO
START TO FILL IN. WILL GO A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STORMS FROM AROUND THE I-71
CORRIDOR EAST THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOLER DAY. NOT SURE IT WILL BE AS COOL
AS GUIDANCE IS FOR NE OH/NW PA SINCE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO ARRIVE TOWARD EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND OUR SLOW MOVING SYSTEM I DOUBT WE WILL SEE NEW
ACTIVITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT ALTHOUGH I WILL LEAVE
A LOW POP CHANCE NW PA WHERE THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LEFTOVER
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING FEEDBACK PROBLEMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. TEMPS
ON SATURDAY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF WE HAVE ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS. SEEMS TO BE YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT SCHEDULED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PERIODS.  SUNDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL
WITH DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH COOL AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.  THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF.  WILL HOLD HIGHS JUST
ABOVE MEX MOS GUIDANCE.  WE HAVE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND KEEPS IT AROUND FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE PERIODS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS.  TEMPS AFTER THE COLD FRONTS SUNDAY AND
TUE/WED WILL BE BACK AROUND 70...CLOSER TO 80 ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OHIO WILL MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING TO AFFECT CAK/CLE AND EVENTUALLY
YNG. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL...PEAKING HERE IN THE
MAX HEATING. SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST AND
THURSDAYS WEATHER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THAT. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
CEILINGS AND/OR VSBY TO BE IN THE MVFR RANGE. SOME IFR POSSIBLE
WHERE IT DOES RAIN AND LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THURSDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING LAKE ERIE LATE THURSDAY. FOR THE TIME
BEING I WILL STICK WITH WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS BUT THERE
COULD BE A TIME ON THE EAST END WHERE CONDITIONS GET CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE LAKE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL PROBABLY KEEP WINDS UP AND KEEP THE LAKE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY.
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS LIKELY TO POSITION ITSELF OVER LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...BC/OUDEMAN
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-281615-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1204 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. LOCALLY HIGH WATER
IS POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IN ONE LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.