Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WGUS71 KCLE 102130
FFSCLE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

PAC049-102142-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090811T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ERIE PA-
530 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ERIE COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IS CANCELLED...

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DUMPED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON 
PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY HAVE NOW MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 
COUNTY.  AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.  SOME 
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR OR 
SO.  

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

IF FLOODING WAS OBSERVED PLEASE RELAY YOUR REPORT TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND.

LAT...LON 4214 7975 4201 7975 4201 7962 4200 7960
      4186 7960 4185 7960 4185 8038 4193 8048

$$

KUBINA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 10AM...HOWEVER I EXPECT
THAT TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NOON AND BEYOND. GOT A LOOK AT
THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC13...CAPES ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING 2000J/KG ACROSS A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SURFACE
TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WHILE TEMPS AT BOTH 850MB AND 700MB ARE
DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THIS DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ALONG
WITH NUMEROUS LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LEADS
ME TO BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS IS A BIT MURKY AT
THE MOMENT BUT I DREW IN THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH.
ALREADY IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF ANY SORT OF
WW COMES OUT LATER TODAY.

ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY BUT HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO HEAT HEADLINES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO THE REGION. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE EVEN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

ACTIVITY GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND BRINGS AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL SLIP BACK DOWN TO MORE
REASONABLE LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLENTY OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
TRYING TO HINT AT SOME QPF IN THE RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
ECMWF HAS IT DRY WITH PLENTY OF UPPER RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. WENT CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THAT
SEEM TO FOLLOW LOCAL SCHEMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS
THAT IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHWESTERN OHIO.
APPEARS THAT KTOL IS IN THE CLEAR AND KFDY HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH 19Z-20Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA INTO ASHTABULA
COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE VERY LITTLE SO THIS COULD BE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL. ERIE WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFF OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 20Z.

ELSEWHERE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL THEN HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A RETURN OF SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER
MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MID WEEK A NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WAVES COULD BE 2 TO 4 FEET...THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED. OTHER THEN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THE NORTHEAST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THE LAKE SHOULD BE QUIET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-110830-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
416 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY CAN LEAD TO HEAT RELATED DISORDERS. CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED TODAY BY AVOIDING OVEREXERTING THE BODY DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LOMBARDY