Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1026 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE ALREADY OUT. APPEARS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK
IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE BACK THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME THUNDER OVER INDIANA BUT
CLOUDS OVER LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THREAT FAIRLY MINIMAL. IF WE DO
SEE SOME CLEARING...THEN WATCH OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING LOW INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
TOMORROW MORNING...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. BUT THE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS ALL THREE MODELS
MOVE A LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY...LIFTING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF
THAN THE FASTER GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS BEGIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  SOME
DIFFERENCES DO SHOW UP WITH FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE GFS AHEAD OF THE
ECMWF BY A FEW HUNDRED MILES.  MOISTURE PROGS ARE SIMILAR WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HOWEVER TIMING DIFFERENCES
HAVE THE GFS DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT 12Z.  WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF HERE
AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SMALL
CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD
LIKELY BE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO AGAIN...NO CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  WILL CONTINUE A
SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL THEN KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE AREA IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z AS
WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH FROM THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO. COULD SEE AREAS
OF IFR HOWEVER AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING JUST AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WSW TO 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUST TO 25 TO 30KTS IN COLD ADVECTION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. VFR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ONTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL BASIN
LATE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON A TRACK NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND
SWEEP THE LAKE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT.  SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ONTO THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER TO 30
KNOTS WEDNESDAY LASTING MUCH OF THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK/KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/TK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-091400-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-091400-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-091400-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.