Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE MCS WHICH PRODUCED SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE REPORTS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAD SURGED OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW OF THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PERHAPS DEEPER
INTO SE GA...THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FIRING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDLANDS THROUGH
THE UPSTATE...AND THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PROGRESSING SE.
THUS...AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY INTO SC...WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES S INTO THE REGION. MAINTAINED ONGOING CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF AN MCS FARTHER NW...PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IF THIS FEATURE HOLDS
TOGETHER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH THROUGH OR JUST
NORTH OF NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A SHALLOW/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS NOT EXPECTED...AND DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WARMING/DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL INITIATE NEAR
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALONG ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS SE GA...EXPECT AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL WEAKENING/
DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL/NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION TO SPILL E/SE INTO OR JUST N OF N COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. ALSO...WITH A
LIGHT FLOW REGIME/AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF
THE SHALLOW POST FROPA AIRMASS...STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HOT AND HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDEXES NEAR 105
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HPC AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE OVER US EARLY IN THE WEEKEND THEN BRINGING IN A
COLD FRONT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA MON. 12Z RUN OF GFS AND NAM
ARE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT DUE TO THIS
AIRMASS COMING IN...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE HARD TO DO AND HAVE GONE
WITH THE ECMWF. DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS
TIME AS ITS ON THE FIRST RUN OF THIS SOLUTION. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCHS...THUNDERSTORMS HAD PUSHED S/E OF THE TERMINAL TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM
AND COULD PUSH IN TO THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
CBS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
REQUIRED IF UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KCHS TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM TUESDAY MORNING...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WERE COMMON...AND THE
SHALLOW/MOIST POST FROPA AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT STRATUS AND LIGHT
FOG. MAINTAINED IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY DURING THE 10Z-
14Z TIME FRAME. THEN...WITH WARMING...EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
REMAINS IN DOUBT. THEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION JUSTIFIES A
MENTION OF CBS STARTING AT 16Z AND ENDING BY 21Z WEDNESDAY.

AT KSAV...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY TO
ADDRESS NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. THEN...IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KSAV
APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A MENTION OF CBS STARTING
AT 16Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR LINGERING
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS WITH DIMINISHED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE WEEK INTO SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
INTO THIS EVENING...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS...A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE N/NE AND WILL INCREASE...TO 10-15 KNOTS WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND TO 15-20 KNOTS BEYOND 20 NM BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS INTO THE 2-4 FT RANGE. AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE
OF N/NE WINDS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD GRADUALLY
RELAX...ALLOWING E/NE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM...N/NE WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...PERHAPS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BEYOND 20 NM...AND
THESE STRONGER WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS COULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WINDS WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-171000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
TONIGHT...PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR LOCAL MEDIAL
OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES POSSIBLE.
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
751 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             2 ESE BLUFFTON          32.23N 80.83W
06/16/2009  E1.75 INCH       BEAUFORT           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OBSERVED. WINDS ESTIMATED
            40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
809 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUFFTON                32.24N 80.86W
06/16/2009                   BEAUFORT           SC   PUBLIC

            1 TREE DOWN IN BACKYARD OF RESIDENCE ALONG LAKESIDE DR.

&&

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             PORT WENTWORTH          32.15N 81.18W
06/16/2009  E0.50 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF
            I-95 AND GA HWY 21.

&&

JRL

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