High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
358 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLC HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BUT MAIN CONCENTRATION FOR ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THE SEA BREEZE REMAINS PINNED
TO THE COAST AND WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING INLAND WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. SUB-SEVERE PULSE TYPE CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHUTS OFF LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS
COULD REMAIN MAINLY INLAND IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN TRANSITION OFF THE COASTAL WATERS
THUS HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LAND AREAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
AND WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND 5MPH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THUS GIVING GOOD
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL PORTION ALONG INTERSTATE 95. EXPECT
GREATER INSTABILITY ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TROUGH THUS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN TODAY. CONTINUE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTREME INLAND PORTION SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING AND ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S/E OF THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW
AVERAGE POPS SUNDAY. IF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE
REGION...SUNDAY MAY BE RAIN-FREE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LINGERING MOISTURE MAINTAINED
ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY S/E SUNDAY. EXPECT A SIMILAR
REGIME MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT IN/NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN CONVECTION
SUBSIDES AS THE DIURNAL HEATING SHUTS OFF. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE
MENTION OF A TEMPO FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH
RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE RADAR TRENDS AND WILL AMEND IF/WHEN NECESSARY.

THE SEA BREEZE IS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT INLAND AS IT/S STILL
PINNED TO THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD START BACKING WITH IT/S
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALSO HELP TO FIRE
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PUSH INLAND.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA PUSHES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE ONLY MENTION OF CB AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION
BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT
MORNING THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MIST AS WELL AS
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RAISE TO 5 FEET BY EARLY MORNING IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS DUE TO THE SWELL ASSOCIATED BY HURRICANE BILL LOCATED
EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PERIOD OF SWELL CONTINUES TO RISE
SLOWLY RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 SECONDS. THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT WILL BEGIN FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS/LOCALLY HIGHER AND STEEPER WAVES
WILL FOCUS NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF INLETS AND RIVERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EBB TIDE. THEN...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WINDS/SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL EMANATING FROM FROM HURRICANE BILL
WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE SATURDAY.
PARAMETERS EASILY YIELD A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVEN AS SWELL
SIZE DECREASES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SWELL PRODUCED BY BILL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE SURF ZONE REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT WILL EASILY ATTAIN AT LEAST 5
FT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SETS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO
     NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     RIP CURRENTS     FOLLY BEACH             32.66N 79.92W
08/21/2009                   CHARLESTON         SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 RIP CURRENTS SPOTTED AT THE FOLLY BEACH COUNTY PARK
            THIS MORNING. TIME ESTIMATED.

1100 AM     HIGH SURF        FOLLY BEACH             32.66N 79.92W
08/21/2009                   CHARLESTON         SC   PUBLIC

            3 TO 5 FOOT SWELL REACHING THE BEACH FROM THE WASHOUT TO
            THE PIER.

0245 PM     RIP CURRENTS     TYBEE ISLAND            32.00N 80.85W
08/21/2009                   CHATHAM            GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1 RIP CURRENT SPOTTED BY LIFEGUARDS.

&&

VB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

SCZ048-212015-
BEAUFORT-
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BEAUFORT COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HILTON HEAD
AIRPORT...OR ABOUT OVER HILTON HEAD ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND BLUFFTON...LAWTON...HILTON HEAD ISLAND...FOREST
BEACH...HILTON HEAD AIRPORT...FOLLY FIELD...WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH
415 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

&&