Gale Watch 3, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1230 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DEEP LAYER ASCENT/MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION UNTIL A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ENDING
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FROPA...COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION..SUPPORTING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE COLD AIR SHOULD MISS THE
CONNECTION WITH THE EXITING PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE...SO PRECIP
TYPE ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

LAKE WINDS...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
LAKE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP...WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE LAKE TO AROUND 20 KT. THUS MAINTAINED THE ONGOING LAKE
WIND ADVISORY STARTING AT 4 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY WILL BE COOL...DRY AND WINDY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SCOUR OUT FROM THE WEST AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW 15 TO 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TONIGHT WITH
EVEN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS VERY
LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIP.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE 0C TO -10C LAYER WHERE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED. IN
ADDITION...LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK. ANY PRECIP
THAT BEGAN BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 08Z WOULD BE RAIN DUE TO A DEEP
WARM LAYER BELOW 900 MB. HOWEVER THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z...THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. CHANCES FOR
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

LAKE WINDS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
LAKE MOULTRIE AS STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SE TO THE
REGION WHILE THE BASE OF A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO SLIDES E AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE PERPETUAL DEEP NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS TO
DROP TO -12 TO -14 DEG C OVER THE AREA WED. AT THE SFC...THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAX TEMPS NO HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 40S...AND THERE IS STILL
THE POSSIBILITY THAT MAX TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S ESP IF
THERE IS ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER. AM GOING WITH THE MORE
OPTIMISTIC FCST OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WILL LOOK FOR DECENT SUN
TO HELP PUSH MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW 40S. EVEN SO...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE DEEP TROUGH BEFORE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES
ARRIVES SO WIND CHILLS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT...CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO ARND 5 MPH UNDER CLEAR
SKIES... ALLOWING MIN TEMPS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST TO DROP TO THE
UPPER TEENS WHILE LOW 20S WILL BE COMMON CLOSER TO THE SHORES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SLIDING E OF THE AREA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
VERY NOTICEABLE WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRI AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AS WELL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...EARLIEST AT KSAV THEN
SPREADING INTO KCHS BY MID/LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FROPA...W/NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
MONDAY EVENING...WINDS HAD TURNED INTO THE NORTH AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE PREPARED TO EXIT THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
SURGE OF W/NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FROPA LATER TONIGHT.
WITHIN THE RESULTING COLD ADVECTION REGIME...PRESSURE RISES AND A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS...WHILE THE
MIXED MARINE LAYER WILL TAP INTO 25-30 KNOT 950-850 MB WINDS.
THUS...EXPECT A RAPID DETERIORATION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...THUS CONTINUED ONGOING SAC/S.

A SECONDARY AND MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUE
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 40-45 KT BY
LATE TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS TUE
NIGHT...THUS MAINTAINED THE ONGOING A GALE WATCH STARTING 00Z WED
FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS...BEYOND 20 NM.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...ESP THE OUTER GA LEG...WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS WHILE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN THE TIGHTENED...BUT NOW
LESSENING...PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OVER
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SUCH THAT BY LATE THU...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRECEDE IT. THIS COMBINATION WILL
CREATE NOT ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO RH VALUES
THAT WILL DROP TO NEAR IF NOT BELOW THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT LEVEL.
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS POINT WILL BE SE GA WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE RH
VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT...WHILE N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
WILL HAVE RH VALUES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15-25 MPH AREA...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THESE CONDITIONS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
COORDINATE WITH USERS THE NEED FOR EITHER FIRE WX WATCHES...RED FLAG
WARNINGS OR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>044-047>051-031130-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD WEATHER...WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PART OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ045-031130-
BERKELEY-
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

COLD WEATHER...WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PART OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-031130-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

GALES...GALE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND POSSIBLY CHARLESTON HARBOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
SURGE OF COLD AIR DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A GALE WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ374-031130-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.