Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
243 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IS FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFT WITH NEW SHWRS AND TSTMS ALREADY
MOVING INTO NWRN AREAS OF THE FA FROM QB. THIS TREND WILL CONT
AND WE XPCT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS AFT AS MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLD CVR OCCUR OVR MUCH OF THE FA. THE NAM IN
PARTICULAR INDICATES THE MOST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVR WSW PTNS
OF THE FA...WHERE THE GREATEST SUNSHINE IS XPCTD PRIOR TO TSTMS
MOVING IN OR FORMING OVR THIS AREA. MANY AREAS OF THE FA ARE XPCTD
TO REACH SB CAPES OF A 1000 J/KG OR MORE LATE THIS AFT...WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 2000 J/KG OVR FAR WSW PTNS OF THE FA. THE CAPE
DISTRIBUTION IS FAIRLY EQUAL ACROSS THE POSITIVE AREA FROM THE LFC
TO EL...SUGGESTING MODEST MID AND UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES FOR
SEVERITY. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOWLY INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS ALF...MID LVL WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN 50 KT FOR
NUMEROUS SVR WIND GUSTS AND FZLS AOA 11.5 KFT SUGGEST LIMITED LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION...SO WE
ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT MARGINAL SVR WX TSTM PRODUCERS FOR THOSE
STORMS THAT GO TO BECOME SVR LATE THIS AFT. IN ADDITION PWS OF 1.25
TO 1.50...LARGE ABV ZERO DEG C CAPES AND BACKWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS OF 10 KT OR LESS OVR PARTS OF THE FA SUGGEST THAT
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE TSTM COMPLEXES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE FLOODING RNFL.

NAM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DECENT SB CAPES BEING AVAILABLE FOR
TSTMS TO UTILIZE UP TO ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHWRS AND
DISSIPATING LATER TNGT. FCST QPF WAS BASED ON POP DISTRIBUTION...
WHICH WAS FITTED TO MAX SB CAPE AXIS...MSLY ACROSS WRN AREAS.
LATER TNGT...WITH MOIST TROPICAL AIR STILL IN PLACE...WE XPCT AREAS
OF FOG...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG MOST LIKELY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.

FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE MOST AREAS BY MID MORN TUE AS SFC WINDS BECOME
MORE WRLY-DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...LEAVING AT LEAST PTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR TUE. WITH WARMING 925-850 TEMPS BY TUE AFT...WE STILL XPCT SC
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO 80S MOST AREAS XCPT 70S ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND HIGH TRRN OF THE FA. WE LOWERED POPS TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT FOR
TUE BASED ON THE BELIEF THAT A MID LVL CAP (STABLE ZONE) WILL
LARGELY PREVENT CU FROM REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY TUE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE STATE THRUSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WEAL
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING
THEN MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY.
WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR QPF AND POPS WITH SOME
SMOOTHING. FOR SKY COVER HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THE
SREF. THE GMOS WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE...WIND AND DEW POINTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
MAINE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
SATURDAY EVENING THEN CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSSING NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. WILL INITIALIZE THIS PERIOD WITH GMOS...HOWEVER WILL
LOWER POPS THURSDAY EVENING THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WILL ALSO ADJUST SKY COVER TO BETTER FIT POPS.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT LATE AFT INTO ERLY EVE
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH IFR POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHWRS AND
TSTMS. LATER TNGT...MOST TAF SITES WILL LOWER IN CLGS AND VSBYS
AS AREAS OF FOG RE-FORM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE RELATIVELY EARLY TUE
MORN...LINGERING LONGEST ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST...AS SFC WINDS
BECOME MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL ALLOW IFR TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION
TO VFR MOST IF NOT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MORN...CONTG THRU THE
REST OF THE DAY TUE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KBGR AND KBHB. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 THEN
LOWER WIND SPEED 2 KNOTS BELOW MODEL BLEND WITH STRONG MARINE
INVERSION IN PLACE. FOR WAVES SPECTRAL DATA INDICATES LONG PERIOD
INCOMING WAVE FIELD AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS. WIND WAVE FORECAST
AROUND 4 FEET LOOKS TOO HIGH AND WILL LOWER 1 FOOT. WILL KEEP
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE WITH HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND KEEP WIDE
SPREAD FOG TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG TUESDAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WILL ALSO USE MODEL BLEND AS DESCRIBE
ABOVE...HOWEVER WILL LOWER LOWER 2 TO 3 KNOTS WITH FORECAST WINDS
A LITTLE STRONGER. FOR WAVES WILL INITIALIZE WITH WNA/4. ONCE
AGAIN WILL LOWER WAVE MODEL 1 FOOT SINCE EXPECT SIMILAR BIAS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LONGER FETCH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS WAVE
FIELD TO REACH WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL USE WIDE SPREAD FOG
THURSDAY AND AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEED A LITTLE STRONGER.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-281700-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1250 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-281700-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
1250 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     HAIL             LAGRANGE                45.17N 68.85W
07/27/2009  E0.88 INCH       PENOBSCOT          ME   POST OFFICE

&&

MAT