Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
547 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZFP TO INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AS A FEW STORMS OVER NORTHERN MAINE SHOWING SOME ROTATION AND
STRONG WINDS IN THE RADAR VELOCITY FIELDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
A CONCERN AS FFMP INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALLER STREAMS TO
REACH BANKFULL. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE JUST HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS. STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON STMS ENTERING INTO
SKOWHEGAN REGION.
&&

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN QUEBEC CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BEHIND BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. EXPECT THE
WINDS OVER NIGHT TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WHICH WILL PROVE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FROST AND THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW 34 DEGREES. LOADED NAM12 THROUGH PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 992MB LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD IN DURING THE DAY.
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA OVR
NIGHT MON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TUES EVENING AND ANOTHER
WEAK HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. AND WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOADED THE GFS...NAM...SREF THROUGH TUE GFS...SREF...THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXITING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WATERS EARLY
THURS AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT FRI AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESS SYSTEM DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATER OVERNIGHT FRI AND INTO THE COASTAL
ZONES BY EARLY ON SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY SUN MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOADED GMOS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. AFTER 02Z. MVFR COND ALL SITES THROUGH 02Z WITH SCT SHRA
AND TSRA LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR...TO LIFR IN VCNTY OF TSTMS.
AFTER 02Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES. STARTING
WITH BHB...BGR. THEN MOVING NORTH AS THE SHRA/TSRA MOVE EAST.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD FROM MID TO 6AM. AN SCA MAY AGAIN BE
NEEDED AFT 06Z TUE TO 18Z TUE. BELOW SCA CONDTION AFT 18Z TUE
THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL
RISES IN SMALL STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA. AFFECTED AREAS INCLUDE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK...NORTHERN
SOMERSET...PISCATAQUIS...AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/HEWITT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
427 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-012030-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
427 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION IN CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEZ015>017-029-030-012030-
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-
COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
427 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-012030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
427 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 NNE WESTFIELD         46.60N 67.91W
05/31/2009  E1.00 INCH       AROOSTOOK          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTFIELD               46.57N 67.92W
05/31/2009                   AROOSTOOK          ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY TREES DOWN ON SHOREY RD

0550 PM     HAIL             PRESQUE ISLE            46.68N 68.02W
05/31/2009  E0.88 INCH       AROOSTOOK          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM     HAIL             PRESQUE ISLE            46.68N 68.02W
05/31/2009  E0.75 INCH       AROOSTOOK          ME   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
602 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTFIELD               46.57N 67.92W
05/31/2009                   AROOSTOOK          ME   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROOF OFF GARAGE ON SHOREY RD

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EASTON                  46.64N 67.91W
05/31/2009                   AROOSTOOK          ME   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY TREES DOWN ON 1A JUST SOUTH OF EASTON CENTER

&&

PJR