River Flood Warning 4, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE EAST.
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BUT MAY MOVE BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. COULD BE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MAINE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTIAL CLEARING ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. LOW TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 30S
DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALL AREAS. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH MILDER
THAN TODAY WITH LWR 60S NORTH AND MID 60S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONT FULL SWAY FRI NGT THRU SAT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALG THE ENTIRE E COAST AND CORRESPONDING LLVL
THERMAL FIELDS WARM IN THE PROCESS. MODELS SHOW WHATS LEFT OF A
S/WV FROM NEAR THE IO/MO/IL CONFLUENCE PERHAPS BRINGING SOME CLDS
TO THE FA DURING SAT...SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE MAX POTENTIAL HI TEMP
SAT AFT BY A FEW DEG F.

MODELS...HOWEVER...HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING A
ZONAL S/WV MOVING ENE THRU CNTRL QB ASSOCIATED WITH A MDTLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM QB...CROSSING THE FA BEGINNING ERLY SUN MORN
ACROSS THE XTRM NW...CLRG THE DOWNEAST COAST BY MID AFT. THIS
TIMING HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN WARM SECTOR
TIME... AS WELL AS HI TEMPS SUN...FOR SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA. HI
TEMPS SUN WILL OCCUR IN THE MORN ACROSS THE N WITH TEMPS LEVELING
OFF LATE MORN TO MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL AFT ERLY AFT HIGHS
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY ALF OR
LLVL MOISTURE CNVRG WITH THE FRONT...SO KEPT POPS IN SLGT CHC CAT.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFT REACHING A FURTHEST S PSN ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENG THE SRN GULF OF
ME LATE SUN NGT...MOST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT TRYING TO
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT MON INTO MON EVE ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORE
IN THE WAY OF CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME OVRRNG SHWR ACTIVITY
MSLY LATE SUN NGT AND ERLY MON MORN ACROSS THE NW HF OF THE FA.
THE LATE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR WITH SSWRLY LLVL WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF A WARM-UP TO WRN INTERIOR PTNS OF THE FA MON AFT.

AFT A MILD NGT MON NGT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA WITH
SIMILAR DAY TIMING TO SUNS COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS
CLOSER TO THE FA WITH THE SUPPORTING S/WV...THERE MAY A BE A
BETTER CHC OF SHWRS ACROSS PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON NGT AND TUES
MORN.

AFT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FA TUE NGT...MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR SHOW LOW PRES TRACKING ESE FROM THE MID ATLC STATES
PERHAPS BRINGING CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS TO DOWNEAST AREAS LATE WED
INTO WED EVE. OTHERWISE...MSLY FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT LINGERING MVFR KCAR/KPQI/KHUL THRU EARLY EVENING IN LWR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH VFR ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI.

MSLY VFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES BEYOND FRI...HOWEVER...CANNOT
RULE OUT A PD OF MVFR/IFR ST CLGS SPCLY DOWNEAST SITES SUN NGT
INTO MON WITH THE RETURN OF LLVL WARM AIR INTO THE FA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS IN WINDS/SEAS TONIGHT. SCA SEAS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRI OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED ATTM. WV HTS MAY APCH SCA THRESHOLDS
SAT AND SAT NGT AND AGAIN LATE MON INTO MON NGT WHEN RETURN S
WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. LLVL STABLE MARINE AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP
SRLY WIND SPEEDS BLO 25 KTS DURING BOTH EPISODES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED
FROM AROUND AN INCH ALONG THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER WITH GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS WELL BELOW BANKFULL
ALL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/VJN
HYDROLOGY...DUDA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
302 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-241915-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
302 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-241915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
302 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.