Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE MARITIMES COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE BILL
WILL TRACK NORTH TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HURRICANE WILL TURN RIGHT AND TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROUGHT GRIDS CURRENT...TEMP...SKY...POP...AND WX TO REFLECT WX
ALONG WRN MTNS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST HAS CHANNELED VERY HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
AREA. A FLOW OFF THE WATERS HAS KEPT THE LOW LEVELS STABLES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MAY STRAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT SUPPORTED BY
SOME MID LEVEL CONVECTION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS INCLUDING SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
NOSING WEST FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...BETWEEN THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...MAY
KEEP THE DOWNEAST COAST RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY KEEP
COASTAL AREAS FOGGY MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY FEATURES THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL. EXPECT THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PRODUCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO DAY SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME HURRICANE BILL WILL BE RE-CURVING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
BILL AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE TACK OF THE HURRICANE. FOR THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE USED THE NAM12
TO INITIALIZE THE POP AND QPF RESULTING FROM HURRICANE BILL. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND
SREF. AT THIS TIME THE TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL WILL KEEP STRONGEST
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE GMOS TO
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

STORM SURGE: PRIMARY CONCERN IS LARGE WAVES WITH LONG PERIODS
APPROACHING THE COAST AS HURRICANE BILL PASSES TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT AN UNUSUALLY
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE LARGE WAVES. THE LONG WAVE PERIOD OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS WOULD
BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO SURGE COMPONENTS OF RUN-UP AND SET-UP. THIS
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL THEN PULL WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A VERY COOL AIRMASS
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL THEN BRING A BREATH OF EARLY AUTUMN AIR
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SWELL AHEAD OF HURRICANE BILL WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND 7 FT ON SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40...WITH
CONVERGING SOLUTIONS...TO INITIALIZE WIND GRIDS. HAVE MADE A FEW
MANUAL CHANGES. FOR WAVES: HAVE GENERATED WAVE GRIDS WITH WNA/4.
THE WAVE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/MIGNONE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

MEZ001-003-004-212200-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...
BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...
MOUNT KATAHDIN
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2009

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES INCLUDING DAAQUAM AND NINE MILE
BRIDGE WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH 6 PM. PERSONS IN
THESE AREAS ARE ADVISED THAT RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME
EROSION OF DIRT ROADS AND PONDING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

MCB