Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Columbia, SC

000 
WWUS52 KCAE 051739
SVSCAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

SCC055-061-051749-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-090805T1800Z/
KERSHAW SC-LEE SC-
139 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEE AND KERSHAW COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA TOLL FREE
AT 1 800 7 7 5 7 1 9 9.

LAT...LON 3408 8033 3408 8038 3409 8039 3408 8040
      3409 8042 3414 8048 3416 8047 3416 8050
      3421 8056 3432 8051 3429 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 302DEG 10KT 3416 8033

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1056 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALREADY TAKING PLACE TODAY UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY...ALREADY
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S PRIOR TO 11 AM. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -8C ALREADY IN THE CSRA.
INSTABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
AND FORCING ARE NOT IDEAL AND WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION...AT LEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
TOWARDS 00Z AND THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE UPSTATE
AND INTO THE MIDLANDS PRODUCING BETTER COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
SOUNDING ANALYSIS FOR THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN INVERTED V SHAPE
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE MAIN RISK WITH STORMS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GREATER THREAT FOR COVERAGE BEING THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIMITED CONVECTION AND HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN BY
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY. SCTD STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL JUST MENTION CB IN THE TAF FOR
NOW GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW MUCH AREAL PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY AT AGS AND OGB
BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION...AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
444 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-060845-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
444 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1232 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ040-SCZ018-051730-
LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-
1232 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LINCOLN AND MCCORMICK
COUNTIES...

AT 1228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIGNALL...OR NEAR THE
GILLS POINT AREA OF LAKE THURMOND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS TO BOATERS ON LAKE
THURMOND...ESPECIALLY LIGHTNING. YOUR BEST COURSE OF ACTION DURING A
THUNDERSTORM IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE OPEN
LAKE WATERS...STAY BELOW DECK...AND IF POSSIBLE...AWAY FROM
UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA TOLL FREE
AT 1 800 7 7 5 7 1 9 9.

LCV