Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MARCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ON
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPSTATE. EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS STILL STABLE ACROSS THE AREA
BUT EXPECT INCREASING INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE EVENING PERIOD AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY FOR THE
EVENING...AND BACK TO CHANCE POPS 06Z-10Z. LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY AROUND 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
OVER AREA LAKES. MAINLY NEUTRAL OR WEAK CAA SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOST
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY WITH WEAK CAA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE LONG TERM WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH FEW CHANGES
MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...MAIN CHANGES TO ADJUST SKY COVER
AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AT 23Z. EXPECT BULK OF THESE STORMS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF TAF SITES. MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT MAINLY FROM 01Z TO 08Z.
CEILINGS/VSBY MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY TO MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM 10Z UNTIL
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF CIGS/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
650 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-020-021-025-026-112300-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-
EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-
650 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 135 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

GAZ077-SCZ015-016-022-027>031-035>038-041-112300-
BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-KERSHAW-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-
SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
650 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
853 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             7 WSW MOUNT CARMEL      33.96N 82.63W
04/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ON HWY 79 NORTH OF BEULAH.

&&

KILMER