Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT MON JUL  6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATPIX SHOW PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO PICK UP THE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
COMMENCE AFTER 2PM. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES
AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES VALUES OF 576 WHICH ARE IN THE
PREFERRED RIBBON FOR HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY PERIOD SO ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOCAL MODEL HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH CONVECTION AREAS AND
HAS A BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME TRAINING STORMS IN THIS
AREA WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES. YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME GOOD DOWNBURST THAT TOOK DOWN MANY TREES
AND POWERLINES SO EXPECT THE SAME OVER AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS HAS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN SUPPORT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARED TO BE HEATING AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POPS AROUND 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SEWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE JUST S OF THE
CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. 88D SHOWS SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM
CNTRL NC AND MTS ALONG AND S OF THE CDFNT INTO GA/AL. WV SHOWS S/W
WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG/SOUTH OF
CDFNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE CB IN FCST AND TEMP GROUP
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 20Z THROUGH 24Z. OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHED THOUGH THROUGH THE AREA...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME
N/NE. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TOWARD MORNING AND WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
FROM 08Z THROUGH 13Z.  TODAY.  EXPECT SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY A

THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES...AGS/DNL/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-070800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
348 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.