Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 250251
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
951 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN TIER CHRISTMAS DAY... ...
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL NEAR IOWA ON FRIDAY...LIFTING AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS...THE LOW WILL LIFT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AS
WELL...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN TIER CHRISTMAS MORNING...
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY
NEAR FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY. FREEZING RAIN
PRESENTS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUES...WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
FREEZING RAIN ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADWAYS VERY SLICK. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE TRAVELING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE
MAY BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH
ICE WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATION TO HINDER TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTIES.

NYZ019>021-251100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.091225T1200Z-091226T0000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
951 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN TIER CHRISTMAS MORNING...
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY
NEAR FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY. FREEZING RAIN
PRESENTS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUES...WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
FREEZING RAIN ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADWAYS VERY SLICK. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE TRAVELING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE
MAY BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....WITH PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW... BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET... FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT... THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-251100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.091226T0600Z-091227T0900Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
951 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH
ICE WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATION TO HINDER TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL/SAGE

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 250925
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES TODAY...
...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TODAY WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE
LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START THE DAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGESTING THAT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ARE ALL A
POSSIBILITY. FREEZING RAIN WILL PRESENT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ENOUGH TO MAKE
ROADWAYS VERY SLICK. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY SHOULD
BE AWARE THERE MAY BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED
ROADWAYS.

THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING OR
COLDER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN.
COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH ICE WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION TO HINDER TRAVEL...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

NYZ013-014-251730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.091225T1400Z-091226T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
425 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES BETWEEN 9 AM
AND NOON...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
THAT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PRESENT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...WITH
ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADWAYS VERY
SLICK.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE MAY BE
ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW... BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET... FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT... THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-251730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.091225T1200Z-091226T0000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
425 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START THE DAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST
THAT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ARE ALL A POSSIBILITY.

FREEZING RAIN WILL PRESENT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...WITH
ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ENOUGH TO MAKE ROADWAYS VERY
SLICK.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE MAY
BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW... BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET... FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT... THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-251730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.091226T0600Z-091227T0900Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
425 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH ICE WILL
ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION
TO HINDER TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER
INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 251453
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN FINGER
LAKES TODAY... 

...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TODAY WILL LIFT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS...THE LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 1 PM...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL BE BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN. ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ENOUGH TO MAKE
ROADWAYS VERY SLICK. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY SHOULD
BE AWARE THERE MAY BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED
ROADWAYS.

THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR FREEZING OR
COLDER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN.
COLD AIR FUNNELING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH ICE WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION TO HINDER TRAVEL...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

NYZ019>021-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
953 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM
AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING
RAIN.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE
MAY BE ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO JUST PLAIN RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
953 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES BETWEEN 1 PM
AND 3 PM...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING
RAIN.

WHILE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOSE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SHOULD BE AWARE THERE MAY BE
ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING EARLY THIS
EVENING...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO JUST PLAIN RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-252300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0006.091226T0600Z-091227T0900Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
953 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH
ICE WILL ACCUMULATE...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATION TO HINDER TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 252028
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

...FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED IN THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN
RAIN. A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS ARE STILL AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING HOWEVER. THIS WILL RESULT IN SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE.

THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AS
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN RAIN QUICKLY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
AND BLACK RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST WINDS MAY KEEP COLD AIR IN
PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS.

NYZ013-014-019-252130-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN
328 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING CHANGING ALL PRECIPITATION
OVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN. THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ007-008-260430-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.091226T0600Z-091227T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.091226T0200Z-091226T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
328 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1
PM EST SATURDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

FREEZING RAIN MAY BRING SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN RAIN BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ACROSS NORTHEAST JEFFERSON COUNTY AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONGER...
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESSER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA.
ROADS THAT APPEAR JUST WET MAY IN FACT BE COVERED BY BLACK ICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-260430-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.091226T0000Z-091226T0900Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
328 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4
AM EST SATURDAY.

FREEZING RAIN MAY BRING SLIPPERY TRAVEL TO PORTIONS OF OSWEGO
COUNTY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OSWEGO COUNTY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO JUST PLAIN RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. USE CAUTION IF
TRAVELING ACROSS THE AREA. ROADS THAT APPEAR JUST WET MAY IN FACT
BE COVERED BY BLACK ICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-260000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
328 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST AREAS IN CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTY HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ARE STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING HOWEVER...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 7 PM
IN ALL AREAS...BRINGING AN END TO THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THE
WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
ACROSS THE AREA. ROADS THAT APPEAR JUST WET MAY IN FACT BE COVERED
BY BLACK ICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE NEAR IOWA WILL SLOWLY LIFT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...THE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS WESTERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE WEST...A RATHER
PRONOUNCED CLEARING LINE HAS PROGRESSED TO ROUGHLY A NIAGARA
FALLS-DANSVILLE LINE...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY IS SEEING THE
CLEARING SLOWLY SPREAD FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...A TESTAMENT TO EXACTLY HOW LOW AND SHALLOW THE LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACTUALLY IS. IN BETWEEN...LOW CLOUDS HANG TIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM
ABOVE...FEEL THAT THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SHRINK UP FROM ITS EDGES INWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAR THIS SHRINKING TREND WILL GET IS
STARTING TO BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT WE WILL BE LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING IN A FEW MORE HOURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD THE LOW
CLOUDS IN ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH THE MATTER THEN BECOMING MORE OF A MOOT POINT
THEREAFTER AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO
SKIES EITHER GENERALLY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING SO DURING
THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING...WITH SOME TEMPORARY THINNING OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATER ON TONIGHT. ANY
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST DETERIORATION IN THE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE...FORCING FROM THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK BY
MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING. THIS
TIMING IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT ADVERTISED BY THE FASTER AND
FAIRLY CONSISTENT GFS...WHICH FROM PAST EXPERIENCE TYPICALLY TENDS
TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIP THAN THE NAM. THE LATTER MODEL HAS SLOWED A GOOD 3-4 HOURS
FROM ITS PREVIOUS CONTINUITY WITH ITS 12Z RUN...A SOLUTION THAT I AM
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE DAY...TAPERING SHARPLY TO CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND OSWEGO COUNTY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...THE BIG ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE PTYPE...AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GOOD LAYER OF WARM AIR
WORKING IN ALOFT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE +2C TO +6C
RANGE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. THIS WILL BE PLENTY WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BEGIN AS LIQUID...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES THEN CONTROLLING WHAT
HAPPENS AFTERWARD.

AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE LATER
START TIME WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES...ESPECIALLY IN THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
AREAS. WHILE WE CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF ISOLATED POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING/
LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO COUNTIES...THESE APPEAR TO BE FAR TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT ANY FLAG AT THIS TIME.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IT WILL BE A BIT OF
A DIFFERENT STORY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER
INITIALLY...ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. IN ADDITION...PROFILES
FROM THE NAM/GFS ALSO NOW SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN AT PRECIP ONSET TO POSSIBLY
RESULT IN A CHANGE FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BACK OVER TO SLEET AND
SNOW FOR A TIME...PARTICULARLY FROM CATTARAUGUS COUNTY EASTWARD
WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER TO START. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN/
FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA...THEN CHANGING TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX FOR A
WHILE...BEFORE GOING BACK TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY RAIN
AS WARM ADVECTION WARMS THE LOWER LAYERS BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND AND THROUGH EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
WILL COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES
MENTIONED ABOVE...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO OF ICING FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN. BY EARLY EVENING...
EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ALL RAIN
EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE EVENT...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH MARGIN FOR
ERROR...LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY OF FREEZING RAIN
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN FEATURES THAT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...FIRST
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AS IT WEAKENS. THE
SECOND WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW WHICH
DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING...AGAIN LIFTING TO THE NE INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. NOTED THE NAM SEEMS TO UNDERDO THIS
SECOND FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO THE UKMET/GEM WHICH
BOTH BRING AROUND .50 OF QPF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH GFS
IN LINE WITH THE LATTER TWO...CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIP...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

ONTO THE EXCEPTION...COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY...AS AIR FUNNELS DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE AREA
OF CONCERN IS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES...WHERE THE TOPOGRAPHY LENDS ITSELF TO FUNNELING AIR DOWN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BUT CAN
SEE A REAL POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH (OR MORE) OF ICE IN THIS
AREA. THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD POINT TO A
WATCH FOR THIS AREA...WITH LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE ST LAWRENCE
THE MAIN CONCERN. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
EASTWARD...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE A LINGERING CONCERN IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER THIS
BAND WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN PRODUCER. WHILE COLDER AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY BE OVER BY
THE TIME COLD AIR DOES GET IN. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL
WOULD BE A CONCERN SINCE THERE IS GENERALLY TOO WARM ALOFT FOR
CRYSTAL GROWTH...WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY. THIS
SAID...WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL FORECAST RAIN
ENDING...THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING. TOO FAR OFF TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICS...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS.

ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DO COOL AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...TRANSITIONING ANY PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. LAKE EFFECT
SET UP IS MARGINAL...WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -10 C...THERE
WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS CARRIED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...GIVEN THE LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVER THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD MONDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SUITE OF
THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ALL PLACE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR WESTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN PA MONDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS DOWNWIND
OF THE TWO GREAT LAKES. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LES SOUTH OF THE
METRO BUFFALO AREA MONDAY...WHILE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE METRO WATERTOWN AREA
BEFORE SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO THE EAST COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850 WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW AS THE SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT PASS ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY
MORNING 850S WILL BE DOWN TO -18 TO -22 ACROSS THE CWA.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LES ACROSS SKI COUNTY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS LES WILL
DIMINISH FIRST OFF LAKE ERIE AND LATER OFF LAKE ONTARIO. SFC
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S.

DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. REMAINING COLD ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW CHC POP
AS MODELS WILL LIKELY VARY THEIR SOLUTION BASED ON HOW AND IF THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DAYTIME MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS...THE
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS ALREADY HAVING IMPROVED TO
VFR ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT THIS GENERAL TREND TO
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING VFR BY 00Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY UNDER INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS.

AS WE GET INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DETERIORATE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY STATE
BY AROUND 15Z...AND TO APPROACH KBUF/KIAG/KDSV BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE AT THIS POINT IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN...WHICH WILL BE MIXED WITH AREAS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
LIMITED LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LAKES.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ON LAKE ERIE...SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOCALLY LOWER WINDS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE INTO FRIDAY...TO
EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN. EXPECT WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THOUGH WAVES WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY LARGE GIVEN
THE SHORT FETCH...THEY WILL BE CHOPPY. WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT SW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON LAKE ONTARIO...A E-NE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. 925 MB WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT NOT LINED UP WELL AT ALL
WITH SURFACE...SO EXPECT MUCH OF THIS NOT TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
INVERSION. FOR THIS REASON GO WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT INSTEAD OF
GALES...CAPPING WINDS AT 30 KTS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD WELL ON WESTERN
ONTARIO...WITH THE SCA LIKELY LASTING WELL INTO SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY...MAY
PRODUCE GALES OR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
356 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

NYZ007-008-252100-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
356 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-010>014-085-252100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
356 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-252100-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
356 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-252100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
356 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR