Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Buffalo, NY

424 
WHUS71 KBUF 180142
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
942 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

...GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN UP AND BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO'S NEARSHORE
WATERS.

LOZ044-045-180945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.090918T0900Z-090918T1900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
942 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT
FRIDAY. 

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN UP AND BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO'S NEARSHORE
WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RSH

582 
WHUS71 KBUF 180826
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

LOZ042-043-181630-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.090919T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
426 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-181630-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.090918T0900Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
426 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO
5 FEET INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY MAY SUBSIDE FOR AWHILE LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-181630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.090918T0900Z-090918T1900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
426 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE BRISK TODAY BUT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL AVERAGE
3 TO 5 FEET BEFORE LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SAGE

860 
WHUS71 KBUF 181334
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

LOZ045-181900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090918T1900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE BRISK TODAY BUT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL AVERAGE
3 TO 5 FEET BEFORE LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-182145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO
5 FEET INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY MAY SUBSIDE FOR AWHILE LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-182145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.090919T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
934 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

932 
WHUS71 KBUF 181946
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

LOZ044-190400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTH FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 5 FEET INTO
TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-190400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.090919T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. 

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

361 
WHUS71 KBUF 182102
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
502 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

LOZ042-043-190515-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.090918T2102Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
502 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-190515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
502 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AS THEY TURN NORTH
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO
5 FEET INTO TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

635 
WHUS71 KBUF 190230
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

LOZ044-190800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 FOOT WAVES
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVE ACTION SLOWLY
SUBSIDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-190800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1030 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 FOOT WAVES
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVE ACTION SLOWLY
SUBSIDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

766 
WHUS71 KBUF 190815
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

LOZ044-191400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.090919T0815Z-090919T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
415 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY
WATERS INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-191400-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-090919T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0065.090919T0815Z-090919T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
415 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY
WATERS INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SAGE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY
WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE
FINE SUNNY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL SATURDAY GIVING WAY
TO A WARMER SUNDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR LONG THREE WEEK DRY
SPELL WILL END ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AFTER A CHILLY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY MORNING...A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SOONEST TO FILL IN DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR
AREA SAT AND SUN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. FAIRLY GOOD CHC OF FROST OVER
OUR E LK ONTARIO REGION FRI NT WITH SOME CHC EVEN ACROSS OUR
NORMALLY COLDER SRN TIER VALLEYS AS WELL. APPROPRIATE FLAGS WILL BE
ISSUED IF NECESSARY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY RIGHT ON SCHEDULE
FOR THOSE AREAS (SEP 20 AVERAGE). TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY AFTER A
CHILLY START SATURDAY...REACHING 65-70 IN WEST AS 850 MB TEMPS HANG
AROUND 7-8C...AND A BIT COOLER IN NORTH COUNTRY WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
4-5C SUPPORTING L60S. PRETTY GOOD CHC OF FROST AGAIN SAT
NT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR COLDER SPOTS E OF LK ONTARIO AND EVEN SRN
TIER. SUNDAY WILL BE SPECTACULAR WITH FULL SUN...LGT WINDS...AND
TEMPS WELL UP INTO THE 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH 12C IN WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD...FINALLY
INDICATING THAT OUR LONG HISTORIC DRY SPELL WILL COME TO AN END ON
MONDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDING FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO AT LEAST FAR WESTERN NY DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LESSER CHC TO THE EAST. WEAKENING
FRONT/BOUNDARY THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA MON NT/TUES AM WITH
HIGHEST POPS (50 FOR NOW)...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT TUES AND WED
WILL BE LARGELY DRY AGAIN WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING THE TROF.
UPPER RIDGE GETS REESTABLISHED AS WELL AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS HOLDING
UP NEAR 13-14C...IT WILL BE QUITE WARM. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THURS.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INCREASE POPS FROM 30 TO 50 BY LATE MON IN
WEST AND AREAWIDE MON NT...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 30-35 TUES PM AND
WED...PICKING UP TO 40 ON THURS. WILL FOLLOW HPC TEMPS...WELL UP
INTO 70S EACH DAY...BUT 80 IS POSSIBLE IF WE BREAK OUT TUES OR WED.
SUMMING UP...NO WASHOUT...BUT A BIT MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED FOR
EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD WITH BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FOG
AND STRATUS FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT TURN WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO
PICK UP FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND THEN VEER NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD
TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORES OF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY AND
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SODUS BAY EASTWARD FROM
5 AM TO 3 PM FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET
ELSEWHERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN..WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
SATURDAY AND TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
OUR RAINLESS SEPTEMBER CONTINUES NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NY SO FAR THIS MONTH (BUFFALO TRACE, ROCHESTER
0.01). TODAY IS BUFFALOS 19TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAIN. THIS MOVES US UP TO 11TH PLACE IN DRY STREAKS IN OUR 139 YR
HISTORY....AND WE HAVE TO GO BACK 31 YEARS (JUL 4-25, 1978...22
DAYS) TO FIND A LONGER RUN OF DRY DAYS AT BUFFALO. (ALL TIME RECORD
IS 30 DAYS...10/8-11/6/1924). ROCHESTER DID HAVE 0.01 INCH IN
DRIZZLE ON THE 12TH...BUT IT THE LONGEST STRETCH WITH 0.01 INCH OR
LESS THERE (19 DAYS) SINCE JUNE 1988.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SFM/WCH
CLIMATE...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-180915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
514 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-180915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
514 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SAGE