Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 161816
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NYC049-161826-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-090716T1845Z/
LEWIS NY-
216 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 216 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4359 7514 4342 7552 4343 7561 4347 7576
      4363 7577 4382 7517 4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 254DEG 19KT 4357 7546

$$

THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WITH ONLY SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN
TO COOLER WEATHER AND THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE COAST AND BRINGS A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN
NEW YORK THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO PCPN FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT THE LATEST RUC STABILITY INDICES SUGGESTS THAT THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION FROM THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THIS AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER TO THE WEST...WE MAY SEE SOME
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE AND THE GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE NAM12 STILL SUGGESTS THAT
THE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY EXTENDS AS FAR
EAST AS WAYNE COUNTY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE TOWARD THE WILL BE TOWARD THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACK/CATSKILL REGION.

EXPECT ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WEST TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING OF THE LAKE
ERIE/ONTARIO CONVERGENCE...AND WILL LOWER THE THREAT OVER CENTRAL NY
AS WELL.  BY MIDNIGHT EXPECT A GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT OVER ALL AREAS
AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
LATE SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...LEAVING A TROF
IN ITS WAKE JUST TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES...AND THIS
SHOULD SPAWN SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER VA/WVA AREA BY LATER FRIDAY WHICH
WILL THEN SWING UP ACROSS EASTERN NY EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF MORE
SYNOPTIC TYPE RAIN TO LIFT UP ACROSS CNTRL NY...AND AREAS MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...PASSING TOO FAR EAST TO THREATEN
FAR WESTERN NY. STILL...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FRIDAY
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT ALSO SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS EVERYWHERE...BUT SHOW A DEFINITE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN TIER UP INTO FINGER LAKES.

WILL CARRY HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FRI NT/SAT AM AGAIN EAST OF THE
GENESEE AND UP INTO NORTH COUNTRY...TAPERING BACK TO LOW CHC POPS NR
LAKE ERIE AND NIAG FRONTIER...THEN DROP POPS SAT AFTERNOON TO SLGT
CHC WEST AND CHC EAST. SAT WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF 6-8C SUPPORTING ONLY U60S/NR 70 UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUD.

SO...SUMMING UP...BEST SHOT OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES FRI NT AND SAT AM...WITH JUST A LOW CHC OF A SHOWER OR TWO FAR
WEST...ANYTIME FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING. GENERALLY DRY WEST BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH UPPER LOW FILLING AND LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY AND WITH SLIGHT SFC RIDGING...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...JUST INCLUDED A 30 POP DURING AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. 850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM 7C ON GFS
TO 10C ON ECMWF...SUPPORTING L70S OR SO...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FINALLY...A BREAK IN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR A
FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE BREAK RESULTS FROM THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT STILL LEAVING A
TROFFINESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST STATES...AT LEAST FOR
MON AND TUES. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW TO SSW...EVENTUALLY
TRANSPORTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEAST COAST UP INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AT LEAST THROUGH TUES. WILL THEREFORE ONLY HAVE LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR MON AND TUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FROM GEN VLY WESTWARD. 850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE FROM 10C MON TO 14C
BY WED...SO TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND INTO MID 70S MON TO 80 OR SO TUES
AND WED. DEW PTS WILL RISE TO A MORE NORMAL 60 OR SO. DID RETAIN 30
POP ON WED BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS. IN SUMMARY...IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE JULY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FROM TUES THROUGH AT LEAST THURS.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACK
REGION WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING EAST OF LAKE ERIE
DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD MIX
OUT QUICKLY. IT WILL BE HARD TO TIME THE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY AS
IT OFTEN GETS HUNG UP WEST OF KBUF DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT CONVECTION MAINLY EAST
OF THE GENESEE RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO ALONG THE
KIAG-KROC LINE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A LOCAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORES
TODAY. CHOPPY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE
ONTARIO BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THERE. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BUT PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS TODAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...TJP/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...SFM/ZAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-170930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
522 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-170930-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
522 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-170930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
522 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1246 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NYZ006-161745-
OSWEGO NY-
1246 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
  HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR FULTON...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PHOENIX AT 1250 PM EDT...
  SAND RIDGE AT 1255 PM EDT...
  PALERMO AT 105 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

THOMAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
115 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

NYZ008-161815-
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
115 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2009

...STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRENCHING DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AT 110 PM THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND ADVANCING EASTWARD.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE VICINITY OF OSCEOLA BETWEEN 115 PM
AND 125 PM. IF ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL NEAR THE
HIGHMARKET AND CONSTABLEVILLE AREA BETWEEN 130 PM AND 200 PM AND
LATER THE PORT LEYDEN AREA.