River Flood Warning 12, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS41 KBUF 082257
FLWBUF
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
657 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW YORK...
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC029-037-063-121-090457-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090309T1630Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0000Z.090309T1030Z.NO/
657 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.4 FEET
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING 
  ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS, RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND 
  ALSO IN CITY OF BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 090214
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC029-037-063-121-090814-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T0142Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0045Z.090309T1942Z.NO/
1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING 
  ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS, RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND 
  ALSO IN CITY OF BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC029-037-090814-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.090309T1000Z-090309T1832Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.090309T1000Z.090309T1200Z.090309T1232Z.NO/
1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK
* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  OVERNIGHT AND CREST NEAR 8.2 FEET MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, MINOR FLOODING. SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE CREEK
  UPSTREAM OF WILLIAMSVILLE, TOWARDS ALDEN, THROUGHOUT THE DAY
  SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 090420
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1220 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC029-037-063-121-091020-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T0142Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0300Z.090309T1942Z.NO/
1220 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 10.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST NOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING 
  ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS, RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND 
  ALSO IN CITY OF BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC037-055-091020-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0014.090309T0800Z-090311T0200Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.090309T0800Z.090310T0000Z.090310T2000Z.UU/
1220 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 5.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 6.3 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...GENERAL FLOODING 
  OF AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE 
  AND GARBUTT.

$$

NYC037-055-091020-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0015.090309T0824Z-090311T0600Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.090309T0824Z.090310T0000Z.090311T0000Z.NO/
1220 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 5.4 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER 
  THIS MORNING AND CREST NEAR 6.6 FEET MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

NYC029-037-091020-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.090309T0529Z-090309T1942Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.090309T0529Z.090309T1200Z.090309T1342Z.NO/
1220 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT MIDNIGHT THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE 
  OVERNIGHT AND CREST NEAR 8.2 FEET LATER THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, MINOR FLOODING  SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE CREEK
  UPSTREAM OF WILLIAMSVILLE, TOWARDS ALDEN.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 090916
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC029-037-063-121-091516-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T1617Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0415Z.090310T1017Z.NO/
516 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 440 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.05 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BUT IS THEN
  EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN AND CREST NEAR 10.4 FEET THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING 
  ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS, RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND 
  ALSO IN CITY OF BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC037-055-091516-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090310T2100Z/
/GRBN6.1.ER.090309T0845Z.090310T0000Z.090310T1500Z.UU/
516 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 5 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.0 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.2 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...GENERAL FLOODING 
  OF AGRICULTURAL LAND BEGINS, SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN SCOTTSVILLE 
  AND GARBUTT.

$$

NYC037-055-091515-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090311T1200Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.090309T0735Z.090310T0000Z.090311T0600Z.NO/
516 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 5 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.6 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

NYC029-037-091515-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090310T0600Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.090309T0522Z.090309T1200Z.090310T0000Z.NO/
516 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 5 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 8.3 FEET 
  THIS MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, MINOR FLOODING  SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. LITTLE OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE. EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING HAS
  BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE CREEK UPSTREAM FROM WILLIAMSVILLE TO
  BOWMANSVILLE AND TOWARD ALDEN.  

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 091532
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC037-055-092132-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090311T1500Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.090309T0845Z.090310T0600Z.090311T0900Z.UU/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-092132-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T1715Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0415Z.090310T1115Z.NO/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RESUME ITS RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.5 FEET
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING 
  ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH FROM BATAVIA TO TONAWANDA...MOST FOCUSED IN 
  ALABAMA SWAMPS, RAPIDS, AND NORTHERN CLARENCE AND AMHERST...AND 
  ALSO IN CITY OF BATAVIA WEST OF MAIN STREET.

$$

NYC037-055-092132-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090311T0800Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.090309T0735Z.090310T0000Z.090311T0200Z.NO/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.7 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

NYC009-092132-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0016.090309T1800Z-090310T1900Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.090309T1800Z.090310T0000Z.090310T1300Z.NO/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 10.6 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-092132-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0017.090309T1800Z-090310T1200Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.090309T1800Z.090310T0000Z.090310T0600Z.NO/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 11 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-092132-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090310T0600Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.090309T0522Z.090310T0000Z.090310T0000Z.NO/
1132 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, MINOR FLOODING  SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. LITTLE OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 091853
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
  BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC037-055-100053-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090311T1500Z/
/GRBN6.2.ER.090309T0845Z.090310T0600Z.090311T0900Z.UU/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE OATKA CREEK AT GARBUTT
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET 
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF 
  AGRICULTURAL LANDS BELOW LEROY. SIGNIFICANT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  ALONG CREEK, ESPECIALLY IN MUMFORD, WHEATLAND, AND SCOTTSVILLE. 
  ROADWAY FLOODING BEGINS. SOME BACKWATER EFFECTS POSSIBLE FROM 
  GENESEE RIVER NEAR SCOTTSVILLE.

$$

NYC037-055-100053-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090311T0800Z/
/CHRN6.1.ER.090309T0735Z.090310T0000Z.090311T0200Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT CHURCHVILLE
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 6.7 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOOD...WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL 
  FLOODING ALONG ENTIRE LENGTH OF CREEK. SOME RESIDENTIAL FLOODING 
  BEGINS CHURCHVILLE TO CHILI AREA. POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

NYC009-100053-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090310T1900Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.090309T1817Z.090310T0000Z.090310T1300Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 10.6 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-100053-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090310T1200Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.090309T1900Z.090310T0000Z.090310T0600Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-100053-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T0900Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0415Z.090310T0300Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  AGAIN AND CREST NEAR 9.2 FEET THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE-MINOR FLOODING...FLOOD       
PROTECTION
  AT CHESTNUT STREET BRIDGE BEGINS TO BE TOPPED. SOME LOW LYING AREAS
  FLOODED...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPIDS AND NORTH CLARENCE AREAS. 
  FLOODING IN KIBBE PARK AREA OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-037-063-100053-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0018.090310T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.090310T1200Z.090311T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS. THERE ARE MANY 
  ROAD CLOSURES FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON 
  INCLUDING TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD, AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING
  BEGINS INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM, BLACK, 
  BEEMAN, AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE FARMLAND 
  FLOODING.

$$

NYC029-037-091923-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-090310T0600Z/
/WILN6.1.ER.090309T0522Z.090309T0840Z.090309T1025Z.NO/
253 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE.
* AT 2 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL 
  CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5.8 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE, MINOR FLOODING  SOME FLOODING 
  BEGINS ALONG AERO DRIVE FROM HOLTZ TO TRANSIT IN CHEEKTOWAGA. ALSO 
  SOME FLOODING ALONG THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AREA IN AMHERST SUCH 
  AS THE BIKE PATH AND GOLF COURSE. MINOR FLOODING IN ELLICOTT CREEK 
  PARK. LITTLE OR NO OVERALL DAMAGE.

$$

SFM

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 100026
FLSBUF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
826 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...


  TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
YORK...

  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
  ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
  TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS


SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE YOUR CAR THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS AND UPDATES.


NYC009-100626-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-090310T1900Z/
/OLNN6.1.ER.090309T1800Z.090310T0600Z.090310T1300Z.NO/
826 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT OLEAN
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST NEAR 10.5 FEET
  LATE TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...FARM LANDS AND ROADS SEVERAL 
  MILES FROM OLEAN FLOOD SLIGHTLY. NO DAMAGES.

$$

NYC009-100626-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090310T1200Z/
/SLMN6.1.ER.090310T0600Z.090310T0600Z.090310T0600Z.NO/
826 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT SALAMANCA
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...MINOR FLOOD...MINOR FLOODING 
  ALONG ENTIRE REACH IN AREAS UNPROTECTED BY DIKES.

$$

NYC029-037-063-121-100056-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-090310T0900Z/
/BTVN6.2.ER.090308T1839Z.090309T0415Z.090309T1530Z.NO/
826 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
  WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND 5.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE-MINOR FLOODING...FLOOD
  PROTECTION AT CHESTNUT STREET BRIDGE BEGINS TO BE TOPPED. SOME LOW
  LYING AREAS FLOODED...ESPECIALLY IN THE RAPIDS AND NORTH CLARENCE
  AREAS. FLOODING IN KIBBE PARK AREA OF BATAVIA.

$$

NYC029-037-063-100625-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0018.090310T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/RAPN6.1.ER.090310T1200Z.090311T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TONAWANDA CREEK AT RAPIDS
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY 
  MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS. THERE ARE MANY 
  ROAD CLOSURES FROM NORTH CLARENCE EAST INTO NEWSTEAD AND ROYALTON 
  INCLUDING TONAWANDA CREEK ROAD, AND RAPIDS ROAD. BACKWATER FLOODING
  BEGINS INTO NORTH AMHERST ON SMALLER CREEKS SUCH AS RANSOM, BLACK, 
  BEEMAN, AND MUD CREEKS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE FARMLAND 
  FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA BRIEFLY TODAY MAINLY INTO
AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES
TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY MONDAY BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOON UPDATE...FOG HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF...BUT LEAVING PLENTY OF
LOW CLOUD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD HOLD TIGHT FOR THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WEST TO LAKE ERIE...BUT AREAS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. NO
RIVERS OR CREEKS IN FLOOD AT THIS TIME BUT STILL A THREAT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW. BUF AREA CREEKS HAVE ALL CRESTED
AND WERE DROPPING STEADILY AT MID MORNING. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AREA OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH CONTINUES TO
TRAIN EASTWARD FROM ILL/IND TO NERN OHIO AND INTO NW PA. BEST
DYNAMICS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MICH...BUT
ARC OF RAIN SHOULD SURGE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA ONCE AGAIN...BUT
THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH LATER. SOME RAIN HAS LEAKED UP
INTO CHAUT CO AS OF MIDDAY AND UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING IT A BUT
FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...UP TO NEAR BUF BY 3-5 PM.
AREA DOES SEEM TO BE SPLITTING A BIT WITH THIS INITIAL AREA...THEN
A BREAK...THEN MAIN AREA OVER IND/ILL...SO STILL EXPECT BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...MAINLY 00Z TO 06Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE
AVERAGE OF 0.5 INCH OR SO...PERHAPS A BIT MORE...WHICH FALLING ON
TOTALLY SATURATED GROUND CAN CAUSE PROBLEMS. FLOOD WATCH IS
CONTINUED THROUGH MONDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN THE WEST AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR
THIS UPDATE.

TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT WILL TURN COLDER OVER NORTH COUNTRY AS
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ON COAST AND DRAGS COLDER AIR DOWN...WHICH
COULD CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST OFF THE JERSEY COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LKLY
TO CAT POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
CHC POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE, IN THE NORTH WILL GO WITH AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW BUT THEY SHLD
GET A MIX WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME AND THEN END AS SCT
SNOW SHWRS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
 TEMPS SHLD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHWRS AT THE START
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST BUT BY THE TIME IT GETS COLD ENOUGH
BEHIND THE LOW HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT CHANCE RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT A MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO CHC SNOW SHWRS
THOUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE AREA
AND THEN MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. IT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES SPREADS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. WENT MORE TWD
TIMING OF NAM ON PRECIP AS AGREE WITH HPC THAT GFS OVERLY
INTENSIFIES SYS. THE HIGH OVER NEW ENG SHLD KEEP NORTH COUNTRY DRY
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WILL BRING IN CHC SHWRS LATE. FURTHER TO THE
WEST ACROSS THE FINGER LKS AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL BRING IN
CHC OF SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON AND CHC SHWRS INCREASING TO LKLY POPS
DURG THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT HIGHS GENLY FROM 40 TO 45
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN LKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT ZONE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION IN AREA OF STRONG ASCENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

SHARP COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A VERY SHARP DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM
NEAR PLUS 8C TO NEAR MINUS 12C. MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTED
BY GFS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. AIR MASS MAY WIND UP BEING TO DRY FOR
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO BREAK EXCEPT FOR AT THE KART TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL GO VFR. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL RAIN SPREADS NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF COMPLICATIONS IN THE 24 HOUR TERMINAL
FORECASTS IN REGARDS TO WIND DIRECTION...WIND SHEAR...A THUNDER
RISK...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL WEAKEN AND TRANSFER TO A
COASTAL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z MONDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN
THE 07Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME AND A FINAL COLD FRONT 15Z TO 18Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
VEER TO SOUTHEAST...THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
OCCLUDED FRONT...AND FINALLY NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AT THE KART SITE THOUGH AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AND BACK TO NORTH MONDAY AS THE
WEAKENING LOW STAYS TO THEIR WEST AND THEY COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COASTAL. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 1500 FT...FROM AN UNUSUAL
DIRECTION..140/40 KTS...FOR A FEW HOURS...FROM 02Z-05Z AT
KBUF...04Z TO 07Z AT ROC...AND 07-11Z AT KART.
FINALLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN...UNTIL A MIX TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN WEST. KART MAY CHANGE TO SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE WEST LATE.
TUESDAY...VFR...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE
TODAY. TONIGHT...EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD NEW YORK STATE WILL INCREASE WITH WAVES
BUILDING HIGH ENOUGH AS WELL SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WEST OF SODUS BAY TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MOST OF TODAY...ANOTHER LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVER THEN ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER .5 TO .75 INCH OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED.

RAINFALL ON SATURDAY EVENING WAS IMPRESSIVE AS A 50 MILE WIDE AREA
OF TRAINING CONVECTION DROPPED A SOLID INCH IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WESTERN NY. 18 HOUR TOTALS AVERAGED
1.5 INCHES FROM BUF TO ROCH TO SYR AREAS...FOCUSING ON MAIN
HEADWATERS TO BUF CREEKS AS WELL AS MID AND LOWER GENESEE BASIN.
THREE BUF AREA CREEKS WENT INTO FLOOD...BUT WERE RECEDING AT MID
MORNING AND ALL FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 10 AM. FLS WAS ISSUED
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SLOWER RISERS LIKE
WILLIAMSVILLE AND BATAVIA WHICH WILL GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON NEW QPF TONIGHT.
OVER IN ROCHESTER AREA...CHURCHVILLE AND GARBUTT WILL APPROACH
FLOOD MONDAY...AGAIN DEPENDENT ON TONIGHTS RAIN. ALLEGHENY BASIN
DID NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH LAST NIGHT SO NO FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE
RIVER UNLESS AN INCH FALLS THIS EVENING. FINALLY...UP
NORTH...BLACK WILL RISE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT QPF WAS ALSO
LESS THERE SO FLOODING NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ALL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...APB/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...APB/JJP
HYDROLOGY...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

NYZ019>021-090930-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
MORE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES TO
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING BUT CREEKS AND
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-010>014-085-090930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
WEST. A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS AT HIGH LEVELS.
THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-090930-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL KEEP AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS AT HIGH LEVELS. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-090930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
526 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF