Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2009

Lake Effect Snow Warning 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 16, 2009Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 16, 2009, 9:46 AM EST for Oswego County, New York. It was in force for 10 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 16, 2009, 9:46 AM EST (14:46 UTC)
Expired
Dec 16, 2009, 7:37 PM EST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

County Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2009-12-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2009-12-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1133 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
149 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 161446
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE SNOWS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...

.COLD WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY.
THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON OSWEGO COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MOVE THE BAND MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE BAND MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. 

NYZ006-162300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091216T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.091216T1446Z-091217T0200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
946 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT.

A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO
COUNTY TODAY. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AND BECOME MORE
INTENSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE
COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.

SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-162300-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0500Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
946 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP FAR
NORTHEAST WAYNE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
TODAY. MOST OF THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE CONFINED NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM WOLCOTT TO CATO. BY EARLY THIS EVENING LAKE SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS INTO A SINGLE MORE INTENSE BAND AND SINK SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN CAYUGA AND MUCH OF WAYNE COUNTY. THIS MAY BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW ALL OF THE AREA.

EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WHERE THE LAKE SNOW PERSISTS
THE LONGEST. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-162300-
/O.EXA.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091216T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
946 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN
END OF JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF ADAMS. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE COUNTY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS RIGHT
ALONG THE OSWEGO COUNTY LINE FROM MANNSVILLE TO WORTH. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE
PORTION OF THIS BAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091216T2300Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
946 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL FROM MONTAGUE TO OSCEOLA. THE LAKE SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ON THE TUG HILL...WITH
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER BLACK RIVER
VALLEY FROM TURIN TO PORT LEYDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
3 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 162031
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE SNOWS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...

.COLD WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING INTO OSWEGO
COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND SHIFT THE WINDS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PICK UP THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
PUSH THE ENTIRE BAND ONSHORE FROM ORLEANS COUNTY ACROSS THE
ROCHESTER AREA ALL THE WAY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AS THE BAND
MOVES ONSHORE...IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN.

NYZ006-170200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-091217T0200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
331 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COUNTY BY MID EVENING.

SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-170430-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.091216T2100Z-091217T0700Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
331 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST THURSDAY. 

A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING GREATER
ROCHESTER. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6PM AND 11 PM. THE BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091216T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
331 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

A BROAD AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THESE SQUALLS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT LOCAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-170430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0500Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
331 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 162259
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
559 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE SNOWS WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...

.A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PICK UP
THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND PUSH THE ENTIRE BAND ONSHORE FROM
ORLEANS COUNTY ACROSS THE ROCHESTER AREA ALL THE WAY EAST TO
OSWEGO COUNTY. AS THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE...IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN.

NYZ007-008-170000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091216T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
559 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

NYZ006-170200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-091217T0200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
559 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COUNTY BY MID EVENING.

SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-170500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0500Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
559 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT
BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-170700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0700Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
559 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING GREATER
ROCHESTER. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SNOW MAY BEGIN
TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 6PM AND 11 PM. THE BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOWFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 170037
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE SNOWS WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...

.A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

NYZ006-170145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-091217T0200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
737 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

$$

NYZ004-005-170500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0500Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
737 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-170700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-091217T0700Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
737 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR. EXPECT TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 16, 7:03 AM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 16, 7:03 AM EST, 2 hours 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
703 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DRAW PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK...MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS
FORMING EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHILE THE BANDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO ARE
LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATING
OVER NORTHERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.

THE WEAKER BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH ADEQUATE SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...WILL JUST INDICATE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR LAKE ONTARIO...THE SITUATION IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. THE
MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BACK A LITTLE MORE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/ARCTIC
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 925 WIND AND OMEGA FIELDS DEPICT THIS NORTHWARD
DRIFT VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. IF THIS TREND
VERIFIES...THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE WILL COME INTO PLAY AND
IMPACT OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES WITH STEADIER LAKE SNOWS.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THESE TWO COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE HIGHER
IF THE BAND REMAINS INTACT OVER THIS AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED...OR
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON IS ESTABLISHED...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM12.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT REACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
IMPACT ALL THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH A QUICK
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MONROE TO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

AFTER THE FRONT LOOSES ITS CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE
SNOW TO WEAKEN A BIT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT MORE LAKE SNOWS TO SET
UP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE SHORTER
FETCH AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH...BUT EXPECT LOWER ACCUMULATIONS COMPARED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
LAKE ONTARIO.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...READINGS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...THEN DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS IN THE -10F TO -15F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ROUGHLY FROM
BUFFALO SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEW YORK CITY. BY THIS TIME...THE LOW IN
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE WEAKENING...WITH THE FRONT REALLY
LOOSING ITS PUSH...LEAVING A SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE. MOST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHARP INVERSION FROM 2000 TO 3000
FT. FOR LAKE EFFECT...THIS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL GROWTH...BUT WITH
-17C AIR AT 925 MB SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR LAKE
ERIE...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND -10C BENEATH THE
INVERSION...RESULTING IN A MORE MARGINAL CASE. FOCUSING ON LAKE
ONTARIO...A THICK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 400 J/KG IS
EVIDENT...IN A NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR WORKING IN AND WEAKENING WINDS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...CENTERED ROUGHLY ON WAYNE COUNTY ON THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS LATE IN THE DAY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
HAVE A GOOD FLUFF FACTOR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
FORECAST SOUTHEAST OF ONTARIO. EXPECT THE BAND TO STRUGGLE TO SPREAD
VERY FAR FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION...WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. THE INVERSION
WILL LIKELY TRAP LINGERING LOW MOISTURE...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
EXPECTED. WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT STRADDLING THE REGION...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE TEENS EAST...AND EVEN THE SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST NORTH COUNTRY LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TYPICALLY BRINGS FAIR WEATHER TO
THE REGION...THERE IS ONE ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH. THE
NAM/EUROPEAN/UKMET/GEM ALL PRODUCE LIGHT QPF IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. A CLOSER LOOK SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE DYNAMICS ARE NOT TO
IMPRESSIVE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY LIGHT QPFS
CAN PRODUCE SNOW FALL IN THIS VERY COLD ENVIRONMENT...WILL ADD
CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
RANGE...COLDEST TO THE EAST. BASICALLY USE A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND
WEIGHTING THE SREF AND TWEAKING DOWN WHERE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE BEST ENTRENCHED. SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY...BUT GENERALLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC EAST...WHERE THE THE HIGH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MINIMAL
CHANCE POPS...AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER TROF MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOME.
BEYOND THIS...THERE REALLY ISN/T MUCH TO HANG YOUR HAT ON OTHER THAN
AN PERSISTENT UPPER TROF IN EASTERN CANADA. BASICALLY MAINTAIN GOING
FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS IN THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT WE WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT NO IMPORTANT WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON. WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS BECAUSE OF THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AIR DEEPENING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IS GENERATING LAKE SNOWS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT RELATIVELY
WEAK...MULTIPLE SNOW BANDS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING LIFTS THE MOIST AIR THAT IS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

THE MULTIPLE BANDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE...BETTER ORGANIZED BAND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS MAINLY OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITHIN
THE HEART OF THIS SNOW BAND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND.

TOWARD EVENING...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH A BIT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOWERING
INVERSION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS...ESP ESE OF LAKES WHERE SOME
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN LAKE SNOWS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA MAINTAINED ON THE WATERS...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ON LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KTS. EXPECT A BRIEF
INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AFTER
THIS...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH...WITH THE A GENERALLY QUIET PERIOD
EXPECTED ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/SAGE
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 16, 4:53 AM EST, 4 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-171000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-171000-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-171000-
OSWEGO-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-171000-
JEFFERSON-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-171000-
LEWIS-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...DROPPING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
453 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 16, 8:11 AM EST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

NYZ006>008-161430-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
811 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...HEAVY LAKE SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

AT 8 AM, A LARGE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW STRETCHED FROM SOUTH
BEACH TO LORRAINE, TO HIGHMARKET ON THE NORTHERN EDGE, AND FROM
FAIR HAVEN TO FULTON, TO CONSTANTIA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE,
ENCOMPASSING ALL OF OSWEGO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE TUG HILL REGION.
SOME OF THE CITIES IMPACTED INCLUDE, FULTON, ALTMAR, OSCEOLA,
MANNSVILLE AND PULASKI, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF ROUTE 81. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS, ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ROADS
WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND DRIVING IN THIS BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST, SO USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THROUGH THIS
ACTIVITY. THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
9 AM.
Special weather statement, Dec 16, 9:38 AM EST, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

NYZ006>008-161600-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
938 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...HEAVY LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

AT 930 AM, A LARGE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW STRETCHED FROM ADAMS TO
WORTH, TO MARTINSBURG ON THE NORTHERN EDGE, AND FROM FAIR HAVEN TO
CENTRAL SQUARE, TO CONSTANTIA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE, ENCOMPASSING ALL OF
OSWEGO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE TUG HILL REGION. SOME OF THE CITIES
IMPACTED INCLUDE, FULTON, REDFIELD, ALTMAR, OSCEOLA, MANNSVILLE,
PULASKI AND HIGHMARKET, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF ROUTE 81. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS,
ALONG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ROADS
WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND DRIVING IN THIS BAND WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST, SO USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THROUGH THIS
ACTIVITY. THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
11 AM.

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2009Every lake effect snow warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.