High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 110319
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND GATHERS STRENGTH. THIS
LOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS NEW YORK STATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL TAP INTO HIGHER WINDS WITHIN
A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE. THIS MIXING OF THE COLD AIR
WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY EXCEED 50 MILES PER
HOUR ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...WELL AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED.

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-111130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T0900Z-090212T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS
MAY REACH 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 MILES PER
HOUR DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY...AND
THE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004>008-111130-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T1200Z-090212T2300Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1019 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH WIND GUSTS OF
50 MILES PER HOUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...
AND THE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 110845
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY...REACHING NEAR
DETROIT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN EAST AND PASS JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW WILL CROSS NEW YORK STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AND WILL TAP INTO HIGHER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF
THE SURFACE. THIS MIXING OF THE COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY GUST PAST 50 MILES PER HOUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-111645-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T0900Z-090212T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
345 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY REACH 30
TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 50 MPH DURING THURSDAY MORNING
AND MIDDAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. 

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. CHECK IN
WITH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. THE LATEST INFORMATION WILL ALWAYS BE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ004>008-111645-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T1200Z-090212T2300Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...
WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
345 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THURSDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO
40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TOPPING 50 MPH FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE
PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. CHECK IN
WITH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. THE LATEST INFORMATION WILL ALWAYS BE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.


$$

SFM

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 111934
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO NEAR DETROIT BY THIS
EVENING...THEN TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS...AND THIS COULD GENERATE A
LINE OF POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL
BE THE HIGH WINDS THAT WILL BE PRODUCED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG
WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT
IN WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGE. COLD AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING STORM WILL HELP TO PROMOTE DEEP MIXING
OF THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SO THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

WHILE THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TO SHALLOW ROOTED PINES WHICH MAY PROVE TO
BE MORE VULNERABLE IN THE NEWLY THAWED GROUND.

NYZ004-120345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T1200Z-090212T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.090212T0800Z-090212T2300Z/
WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWARK
234 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 MPH IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL COME ON THURSDAY WHEN WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING. 

SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...NAMELY PINES...WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE IN THIS EVENT AS THEIR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEM HAS BECOME
LESS STABLE WITH THE THAWING OF THE PREVIOUSLY FROZEN GROUND.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-120345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T0900Z-090212T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.090212T0800Z-090212T2300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
234 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
30 TO 40 MPH IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL COME ON THURSDAY WHEN WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THE HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING. 

SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...NAMELY PINES...WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE IN THIS EVENT AS THEIR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEM HAS BECOME
LESS STABLE WITH THE THAWING OF THE PREVIOUSLY FROZEN GROUND.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ005-006-120345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T1200Z-090212T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.090212T1000Z-090213T0100Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO
234 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH FOR THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGH
WINDS WILL COME ON THURSDAY WHEN WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 60
MPH. THE HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THEN WILL GRADUALLY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...NAMELY PINES...WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE IN THIS EVENT AS THEIR SHALLOW ROOT SYSTEM HAS BECOME
LESS STABLE WITH THE THAWING OF THE PREVIOUSLY FROZEN GROUND.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-120345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.090212T1200Z-090212T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.090212T1200Z-090213T0100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
234 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL COME ON
THURSDAY WHEN WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. 

THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
254 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL GET AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERS
IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL CATCH A FEW
SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A STRONGER STORM WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PASS EAST ACROSS OR JUST NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A SHARP COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT A MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE
FINGER LAKES AND MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN THE MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT...ASSISTED BY THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS WELL WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT
PROVIDES GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM QUITE SPRINGLIKE WITH HIGH TEMP REACHING THE 60
DEGREE MARK AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AND EVEN IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S WHICH IS
STILL SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF FEBRUARY. WHEREAS THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER RECORD HIGHS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH ARE 68 AND 70 RESPECTIVELY AND NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN
ON WEDNESDAY...THE RECORD HIGH FOR SYRACUSE IS 59 AND MAY BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...IF THAT AREA DOES REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.

WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE TRANSITION FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...WILL HAVE
INCREASING POPS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. BY MID
MORNING...THE 12Z NAM12 SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF 50KT+ WINDS AT 850MB
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BRING A LAYER
OF MID LEVEL OMEGA...VERTICAL MOTION...ACROSS WESTERN NY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LIKELY CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE
BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING LATER WED NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PLENTY OF ACTION UPCOMING DURING THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING NEAR RECORD
WARMTH...FLOOD AND WIND POTENTIAL...AND AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER
WITH SOME DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL.

WE WILL START WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY AND VERY MILD WITH TEMPS RANGING
FROM M40S TO L50S...SOME 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 7-8C RANGE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY WELL
MIXED ALTHOUGH IT MAY DECOUPLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. ANOTHER
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND MIDDAY WITH A SHOWER THREAT.

IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING NEAR ST LOUIS AND
WILL MOVE INTO SRN MICH BY 00Z AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY
MIDNIGHT WED NT. A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD AT LEAST REACH BUF AND ROC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +10C AND
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE SUPPORTING 60 OR EVEN BETTER IF WE GET ANY SUN
AT ALL. RECORDS FOR 2/11 ARE UNUSUALLY HIGH THOUGH AND APPEAR OUT
OF REACH (BUF 68, ROC 70). MUCH OF WESTERN NYS LOWER ELEVATIONS
ARE MAINLY SNOW FREE NOW...BUT PLENTY OF PACK AND SWE EXISTS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO THERE SHOULD BE A RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF.
ONE CONSOLATION IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE QPF...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE HAS BEEN A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...BUT
SITUATION IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. OUR MOST EXTREME
WIND EVENTS IN WESTERN NY OCCUR WHEN LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ON A PATH FROM SE MICH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC...BUT BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LOW REACHING
ITS DEEPEST OVER SE MICH...BUT DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC AND
LABRADOR WILL BE CREATING A STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...SO LOW WILL TEND TO TRACK DIRECTLY EAST (NOT NORTHEAST) AND
EVENTUALLY TEND TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MAINE COAST. THIS TRACK WOULD
BE OVER LK ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z THURSDAY. THIS STILL WILL
PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE...BUT MORE LOW END
ADVISORY CRITERIA THAN WARNING.

NOW...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS STILL MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS
AS IT TRACKS THE LOW ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...ABOVE
TORONTO WHILE STILL DEEPENING IT SLIGHTLY...BUT EVEN THIS MODEL IS
5-10 KTS WEAKER WITH ITS 850/925 MB WIND FIELDS (MAX 60-65 KTS
RATHER THAN 70+) THAN IN ITS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. AND...THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH MORE OF A SPREAD IN LOCATION OF SFC LOW AT
12Z THURS...FROM ABOUT ROCHESTER TO NORTH OF TORONTO WITH MEAN ALONG
NORTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEARBY
OFFICES...WILL NOT HOIST ANY WIND WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE AS
THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
STAGE. I AM CONFIDENT WE WILL LIKELY NEED ADVISORIES...AS LONG AS
SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE WHICH IT ALMOST SURELY WILL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS AND POPS AS PREVIOUS...WITH READINGS
NUDGING 60 LATE IN DAY AND AT NIGHT...AND UPPING POPS TO CATEG FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO MENTION SLGT CHC
THUNDER IN WEST ALTHOUGH MODELS HALT BEST LIS AND CAPES AT SRN TIER
BORDER...FEEL A BIT OF RISK WILL SNEAK UP THE LK ERIE SHORE...ESP IF
GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT.

ONE OTHER CAVEAT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK RIGHT OVER LK ONTARIO...FAR NORTHERN JEFF/LEWIS MAY NOT GET
INTO THE WARM AIR...FOR NOW WILL TONE DOWN TEMPS A BIT THERE BUT
TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION THERE ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

IN ANY CASE...THURSDAY WILL BE A WINDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE 30S. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON A
BULLSEYE OF PRECIP IN WRAPAROUND/UPSLOPE NEAR BUF...IN ORDER OF 0.3
TO 0.6 INCH QPF...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. STILL...THIS DOES INDEED
LOOK LIKE A GOOD UPSLOPE TYPE EVENT SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON HILLS
SOUTH OF BUF AND ALONG CHAUT RIDGE LATER THURS INTO THURS EVE LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET. ELSEWHERE..MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY SNOW BY
THURS EVE. USED MIXED PRECIP SMART TOOL IN GRIDS FOR THE DAY
THURSDAY WHICH SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AND FROM HIGH ELEVS TO LOW ELEVS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD DURING THIS STRETCH. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WELL
DEFINED SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND MODEST LAKE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY, THEN A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY AND THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH NOT ENOUGH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID DAY SATELLITE SHOWING A CLEARING LINE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE IMPROVING TREND FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR CLOUD DECK ERODING TO
VFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION...EFFECTIVELY STEEPENING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE AN EXPANDING
LOW STRATUS DECK AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER COLD
GROUND AND SNOWPACK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS..ESP LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL TEND SOUTHERLY...THEN BACK TO EASTERLY FOR A
TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY
AND PICKING UP. THEY SHOULD FRESHEN UP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND JUST NORTH OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT. THEN...WESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTER ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSES. THEY WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND DISPOSITION OF
THE EXISTING ICE JAMS ON CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON THESE CREEKS...AS WELL AS
ALONG CATTARAUGUS CREEK NEAR SUNSET BAY. WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ALONG THESE CREEKS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING...BY FAR
THE BIGGER THREAT WILL COME FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WE GET INTO A STRONG WARMUP...WHICH WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

WE WILL BE FORTUNATE IN THAT EXPECTED QPF DURING THIS PERIOD DOES
NOT LOOK HEAVY...GENERALLY 0.25 INCH OR SO...SO RUNOFF WILL COME
MAINLY FROM SNOWMELT. WITH LITTLE SNOW LEFT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND ICE JAMMING OF CREEKS. THE SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEFER...BUT
SNOWPACK IS HEAVIER. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED AND BECOME
CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ004>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042-043-062-063.
         GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045-064-065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SFM
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
709 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

NYZ010-019-085-111215-
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
709 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.LOWER ELEVATIONS...PLENTY OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THE CREEK HEADWATERS. SOME RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RUNOFF. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. ICE JAMS
ARE IN PLACE ALONG MANY OF THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AND CATTARAUGUS
CREEK. ICE JAM FLOODING IN THESE AREAS WILL POSE THE GREATEST
RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>006-011>014-020-021-111215-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
709 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A DEVELOPING
STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACK TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THURSDAY.

THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS INCLUDES THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
AREAS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IF THE STORM
TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE.

IN ADDITION...A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS...IT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. WHILE MUCH OF THE SNOW
HAS MELTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...PLENTY OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THE CREEK HEADWATERS. SOME RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RUNOFF. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ007-008-111215-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
709 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FROM THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST. AMOUNTS WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT IF THIS DOES OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A DEVELOPING
STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND TRACK TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THURSDAY.

THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS INCLUDES THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
AREAS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IF THE STORM
TRACK REMAINS FAVORABLE.

IN ADDITION...A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS...IT MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. WHILE MUCH OF THE SNOW
HAS MELTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...PLENTY OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THE CREEK HEADWATERS. SOME RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL ALSO ADD TO THE RUNOFF. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-111215-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
709 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
SIMILAR...A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH STORM FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK