Gale Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

440 
WHUS71 KBUF 112015
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
315 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

LEZ040-041-120300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
315 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.


&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
315 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-120415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-091212T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
315 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-120300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
315 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

083 
WHUS71 KBUF 120314
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...

.WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES PULLS AWAY.

LOZ042-043-121115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0099.091212T0314Z-091212T1600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-121115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0099.091212T0314Z-091212T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0099.091212T0314Z-091212T1600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-120415-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 



$$

LEZ020-120415-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-091212T1000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 



$$

SLZ022-024-120415-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-091212T0300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1014 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 



$$

SFM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TODAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL KEEP A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY EFFECTING THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE EXITING
LOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR ALL TODAY...BUT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...BRINGING
LESS ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL LIFT OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE
RIDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS...

1. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...

OFF LAKE ERIE...LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW ALMOST DUE WESTERLY FLOW HAS
SHIFTED THE LAKE SNOWS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE BULK OF
THE INTENSE ACTIVITY POSITIONED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
HUGGING EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES. THE
FLOW MAY TREND A BIT TO 280 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES MAY HELP TO
BACK THE FLOW TO MORE 260 DEGREE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THESE MINOR OSCILLATIONS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST LAKE
SNOWS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.

CURRENT RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW SNOWFALL RATES PEAKING AT 1-2 PER
HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS
     AND WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR RATES TO BE ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FRESH ACCUMS OF 5-10 WITHIN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOWFALL RATES AND ACCUMS TONIGHT AS RIDGING
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A DROPPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THOUGH 6-8 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS ACROSS THE SKI COUNTRY.

WITH SUCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST...THE EXISTING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.
THE LES ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN INTACT FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE SNOW BAND WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY...AND COULD BRING
ACCUMS OF AS MUCH AS 4-8 TO THAT PARTICULAR AREA.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AN INTENSE SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...FAR NORTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTY...AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY...WITH RADAR-ESTIMATED SNOWFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2 PER HOUR COMMONPLACE ACROSS TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS
BAND SHOULD STAY PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THERE WILL BE A STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW...AND CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE TUG HILL WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3/HR GIVEN THE FULL
FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE ABOVE AREAS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL. THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND SHOULD THEN SETTLE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OSWEGO COUNTY TONIGHT AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE TO 280 DEGREES...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANOTHER FOOT LIKELY OR SO WITHIN THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST 36 PLUS
HOURS...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST. THE WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF
EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN DANGEROUS NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS YESTERDAY...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS THEMSELVES.

THE WIND WILL ALSO ADD A CONSIDERABLE BITE TO THE AIR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS PERSISTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY TO WIND DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND JAMESTOWN FROM
THE 00Z GFS/NAM MODELS...ALL GENERALLY SHOW A WARM NUDGE OF AIR
WORKING IN AT AROUND 4000 FT...CUTTING OFF DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THIS
LEVEL BASED ON THE CURRENT LAKE TEMPERATURES. THE PROBLEM IS THAT
BELOW THIS...IT IS STILL MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS RAISES SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW LONG LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CAN LAST ON ERIE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THIS CAP TO
WEAKEN ERIE BANDS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SHUTTING OFF BY AFTERNOON.
A SIMILAR PICTURE UNFOLDS OFF OF ONTARIO...BUT IT PLAYS OUT ABOUT 6
HOURS LATER.

SO ASSUMING WE DO HAVE SOME ACTIVITY OFF OF ERIE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE BAND TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS BUFFALO AS IT
WEAKENS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...BUT WITH THE
BAND WEAKENING DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
(ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH THE EXPECTED TOTALS OF THIS EVENT) BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND DROPPING AN INCH OR
TWO SOMEWHERE IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW...TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO CARRY MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE
BUFFALO METRO...WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH TAPERING DOWN QUICKLY AS THE
BAND LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. FEEL EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WARNING ON
LAKE ERIE IS ON TRACK...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ENDING SATURDAY
MORNING.

ON LAKE ONTARIO...THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION SATURDAY MORNING. THE CHALLENGE IS THE SAME WITH THE
TUG HILL BECOMING CAPPED AT 4000 FT ROUGHLY MID-MORNING...BUT AGAIN
EXPECT BANDS TO MAINTAIN BUT BECOME LIGHTER GIVEN THE -12C AIR THAT
REMAINS BENEATH THE CAP AT 3000 FT. THIS GENERALLY POINTING TO
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES. HERE TOO...THE BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN...BUT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY RIDGES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
MODEL AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST ONE DRY PERIOD FOR THE REGION...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GIVEN THE SNOW AND MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...HEDGE ON THE COLD SIDE OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS BLEND.

FOR SUNDAY...A RATHER ILL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TROF LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM ALL SHOWING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY. NAM QPFS ACTUALLY SEEM
A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT...AND THINKING MORE ON
THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR NOW. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST
NUISANCE WITH THIS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. EARLY...SNOW/SLEET
WILL BE PREDOMINANT...BUT THIS WILL TREND TOWARDS RAIN SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN MAY BE SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE COLD AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN.
GIVEN THE LIGHT QPFS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND WOULD BE LIGHT. IN
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...EXPECT WARMER AIR TO BUILD IN MORE QUICKLY
UP LAKE ERIE...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY FALLING AS PLAIN RAIN.
HEDGE COLDER THAN BIAS CORRECTED MOS...EXPECTING COLD AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
WARMING QUICKER. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON MONDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING THE
NICEST DAY THIS REGION HAS SEEN FOR A WHILE. FAIRLY GOOD
GFS/EUROPEAN AGREEMENT ON THE SET UP...SO WILL FORECAST A DRY DAY.
THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A 500 MB TROF...WHICH
IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS...THOUGH
THE END RESULT IS NOT TOO TERRIBLY DIFFERENT. THE GFS FORECASTS THE
APPROACHING TROF WILL KEY A COASTAL LOW...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY IN THE MARITIMES...WHILE THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT...FORECASTING
A MUCH LATER AND FURTHER EAST DEVELOPMENT. THE GEM IS PERHAPS A TAD
CLOSER TO THE GFS...THOUGH REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS IN
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SNOW LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS EVENT...THOUGH WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THIS PAST EVENT...WITH A MORE TYPICALLY LAKE EFFECT EVENT LIKELY.
HEDGE ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...GIVEN
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE INTENSE SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KBUF
TERMINAL AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD VCNTY KBUF AND KIAG.

FARTHER SOUTH AT KJHW...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN STEADY SNOW AND
BLSN WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. AFTER THAT CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LIFT TO MVFR BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND 16Z SATURDAY.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE INTENSE SNOW BAND WILL STAY SOUTH OF
KART. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS SITE.

BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE WATERS...WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THOUGH GALES
REMAIN ON MOST WATERS. DUNKIRK HAS ACTUALLY BEEN GUSTING TO 47 KTS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT THIS IS ENHANCED BY ITS CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AVAILABLE FOR MIXING DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING ON ERIE...AND TONIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. TIMING STILL A BIT
PROBLEMATIC...WITH SOME TWEAKS IN TIMING POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
TREND OF DIMINISHING WINDS SEEMS SOLID. SCA UP ON THE ST LAWRENCE
AND THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER.

LOOKING AHEAD...A PERIOD OF GALES OR A STRONG SCA IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ006>008-121100-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVENT PLAYS OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-121100-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-121100-
ALLEGANY-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-121100-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE WATERS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW THIS
EVENT PLAYS OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-121100-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-SLZ022-024-121100-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-121100-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
402 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GALES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
903 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ012-085-111715-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
903 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WYOMING COUNTY THROUGH LATE
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND ALONG CATTARAUGUS CREEK
FROM GOWANDA TO SPRINGVILLE AND CHAFEE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SNOW ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY FROM ARCADE TO
CASTILE AND PERRY. SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

NYZ019-020-111715-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
903 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CHAUTAUQUA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FOUND FROM
CASSADAGA AND SOUTH DAYTON EAST TO MACHIAS. SNOWFALL RATES IN
THESE AREAS MAY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ACROSS THE REST OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CATTARAUGUS COUNTY EXPECT A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

NYZ013-021-111715-
LIVINGSTON-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...WELLSVILLE
903 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LOCAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ALLEGANY COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW WILL BE FOUND FROM MOUNT
MORRIS TO GENESEO AND LIVONIA IN LIVINGSTON COUNTY. DOWN IN
ALLEGANY COUNTY MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL FROM RUSHFORD TO
FILLMORE AND CENTERVILLE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 11 AM.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS AND ON THE HILLTOPS.

NYZ006>008-111715-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
903 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING...

A LARGE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON
THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY ON THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG ROUTE 177 ON
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ROUTES 12 AND 26 FROM LOWVILLE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. TAKE EXTRA CLOTHING OR BLANKETS
WITH YOU AND DRIVE WITH A FULL TANK OF GAS IN THE EVENT THAT YOU
BECOME STUCK.

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ006-008-111800-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
1056 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...

A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS BAND HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR FROM NEAR PULASKI EAST
INTO AREAS BETWEEN LOWVILLE AND PORT LEYDEN. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL FROM REDFIELD TO OSCEOLA ARE
REACHING AN ASTOUNDING 5 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG
ROUTE 177 ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ROUTES 12 AND 26 FROM
LOWVILLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. TAKE
EXTRA CLOTHING OR BLANKETS WITH YOU AND DRIVE WITH A FULL TANK OF
GAS IN THE EVENT THAT YOU BECOME STUCK. ROADS ON THE TUG HILL ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME IMPASSIBLE.

NYZ007-111800-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1056 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN
INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM MANNSVILLE AND PIERREPONT MANOR
SOUTH TO THE OSWEGO COUNTY LINE.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM ADAMS SOUTH TO THE OSWEGO COUNTY
LINE WILL BE DIFFICULT. ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BE SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ012-085-111900-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1156 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ALONG
CATTARAUGUS CREEK FROM GOWANDA TO SPRINGVILLE...CHAFEE...
ARCADE...AND BLISS.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS. ROUTE 39 WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW.

IT APPEARS THE BAND MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BOSTON HILLS AFTER 1230 PM.

NYZ019-020-111900-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1156 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF CHAUTAUQUA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL FALL FROM
FORESTVILLE AND SOUTH DAYTON INTO GOWANDA...ASHFORD HOLLOW... AND
MACHIAS. SNOWFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS WILL REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
AND CENTRAL CATTARAUGUS COUNTY CAN EXPECT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL ON ROUTE 219 FROM SPRINGVILLE DOWN TO
ELLICOTTVILLE WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.

NYZ021-111900-
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
1156 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST ALLEGANY COUNTY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
ALLEGANY COUNTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM RUSHFORD TO FILLMORE AND CENTERVILLE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES IN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS.

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
102 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ012-085-112000-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
102 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN ERIE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS SUCH AS
COLLINS, SPRINGVILLE, EAST CONCORD, CHAFFEE AND BLISS.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS. ROUTE 39 WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY SNOW.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE BOSTON HILLS THROUGH 3 PM.

NYZ019-020-112000-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
102 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF CHAUTAUQUA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS
SUCH AS SILVER CREEK, GOWANDA, OTTO AND DELEVAN. SNOWFALL RATES IN
THESE AREAS WILL STILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND CENTRAL
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY CAN EXPECT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL ON ROUTE 219 FROM SPRINGVILLE DOWN TO
ELLICOTTVILLE WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.

NYZ021-112000-
ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WELLSVILLE
102 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST ALLEGANY COUNTY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
ALLEGANY COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS FROM RUSHFORD TO FILLMORE AND CENTERVILLE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES IN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS.
|

TJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
116 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

NYZ006-008-112030-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
116 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS IMPACTING OSWEGO AND
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...

A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS OSWEGO AND
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER WILL BE COMMON FROM
NINE MILE POINT TO PORT LEYDEN. EVEN HEAVIER SNOW WILL IMPACT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS REDFIELD, NORTH OSCEOLA AND HIGHMARKET. THESE
AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 3 PM.
AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL SEE ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG
ROUTE 177 ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ROUTES 12 AND 26 FROM
LOWVILLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. TAKE
EXTRA CLOTHING OR BLANKETS WITH YOU AND DRIVE WITH A FULL TANK OF
GAS IN THE EVENT THAT YOU BECOME STUCK. ROADS ON THE TUG HILL ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME IMPASSIBLE.

NYZ007-112030-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
116 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY...

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1.5
INCHES PER HOURS LIKELY IN AREAS SUCH AS ADAMS AND WORTH. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW NORTH OF ADAMS CENTER.

TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM ADAMS CENTER SOUTH TO THE OSWEGO
COUNTY LINE WILL BE DIFFICULT. ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BE SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.

TJP