Freeze Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 111347
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER NEW
YORK STATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PLENTY
OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST TONIGHT. A FREEZE
IS LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.091012T0200Z-091012T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE TO DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.091012T0200Z-091012T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WIDESPREAD KILLING FROST OR FREEZE TO DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-112200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0013.091012T0400Z-091012T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FROST TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION. ALSO... POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD
BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

TJP

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 111947
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING A HARD
FREEZE TO MOST OF WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL NOT GET QUITE AS COLD...BUT STILL
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...RESULTING IN THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON FOR MANY.

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.091012T0200Z-091012T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
347 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.091012T0200Z-091012T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
347 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0013.091012T0400Z-091012T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
347 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT MONDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT MONDAY. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER THE 30S TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES OF ERIE AND ONTARIO...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT WARMER...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FROST EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION. ALSO... POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD
BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

APFFEL

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 120415
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING A HARD
FREEZE TO MOST OF WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL NOT GET QUITE AS COLD...BUT STILL
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...RESULTING IN THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON FOR MANY.

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-121215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-121215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-121215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
1215 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER THE 30S TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR FREEZING. ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES OF ERIE AND ONTARIO...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT WARMER...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FROST EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN
THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION. ALSO... POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD
BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 120751
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...A WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...

.UNSEASONABLY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A HARD
FREEZE TO MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO HAVE EVEN DROPPED CLOSE TO FREEZING
WITH FROST.

NYZ012>014-019>021-085-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
351 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. 

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
351 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING
SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. 

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
351 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. 

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. ONLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES OF ERIE AND ONTARIO HAVE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WITH SCATTERED FROST EVEN THERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. 

&&

$$

SFM

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 121334
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...TEMPERATURES RISE FOLLOWING A FREEZE IN MANY LOCATIONS...

.HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON AT MOST
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. WATERTOWN DROPPED TO 23 DEGREES...SETTING
A RECORD LOW. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 25 DEGREES SET IN 1954.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED FOR THE REGION.

NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085-121445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...
WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
934 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THUS
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NYZ001>005-010-011-121445-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FR.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-091012T1400Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
934 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2009

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...THUS
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS ONTARIO BUT ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AS
IT MOVES UP THE COAST WITH A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE IS RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE
STARVED...AND WILL ONLY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME LOW-END
VFR CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA AS IT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
DAYBREAK.

ANY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD
SCATTER OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF ITS PASSAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...ONLY SOME LIMITED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EVENING. AS WE GET INTO
THE LATTER PART OF TONIGHT...THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WNY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EVEN WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED...
THESE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S TODAY GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -3 TO -5C RANGE BY
MIDDAY. COUPLED WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL RESULT IN
A DECENT BREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SUCH TEMPS WILL FEEL A
BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND WITH A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
TEMPS SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY...AND SHOULD LIKELY REACH THE
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE FOR
READINGS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

GIVEN SUCH TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE HOISTING FROST ADVISORIES AND
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT...WITH FREEZE WARNINGS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND FROST ADVISORIES CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT COULD COUNTERACT THE TEMPERATURE
DROP/POTENTIAL FROST FORMATION WOULD BE THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 07-08Z...BY WHICH TIME THE DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY ALREADY BE DONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND ALLOW
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH A COLD START AND THE THICKENING
CLOUD...WENT CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE MAXES WITH A STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER MON AND MON NT...WITH SFC SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST EARLY TUES. BEST
DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH AND MODELS SUGGESTING GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENG COAST TUES AFTERNOON. 00Z
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT OUR REGION WITH BE IN A COL OF SORTS...WITH
MOST INITIAL PRECIP STREAKING BY TO OUR NORTH MON NT AND SOME
WRAPAROUND TUES MORNING FADING QUICKLY TO THE EAST. INHERITED HIGH
LIKELY POPS SO TRENDED DOWN A BIT AT THIS STAGE...STILL HOLDING LOW
LIKELY (55-60) POPS FOR A TIME...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO
CONSIDER LOWERING POPS EVEN FURTHER. HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY WITH PERHAPS 0.25 INCH...LESS IN WEST. HPC ACTUALLY
KEEPS WEST DRY. SHOULD REMAIN MILD ENOUGH FOR JUST LIQUID...EVEN
UP NORTH...BUT JUST BARELY THERE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -3C TUES
MORNING. LOOK FOR SHARP IMPROVEMENT TUES AFTERNOON.

THEN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM ONTARIO TUES NT AND
WED. 850 MB TEMPS OF -4C TO -6C WILL SUPPORT ONLY M-U 40S AGAIN ON
WED FOR MAXES...A SOLID 12-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. N-NE SFC FLOW NOT
CONDUCIVE TO LK EFFECT AS FETCH WILL BE MINIMAL AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE
WILL EXIST...BUT WILL PLAY A STRIP OF SLGT CHC POPS AND HIGHER CLOUD
GRIDS ALONG S SHORE OF LK ONTARIO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. 00Z
GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING SE ACROSS OUR SRN TIER LATER WED
BUT THIS LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH SO WILL DISCOUNT FOR NOW. 00Z ECMWF
JUST IN AND ALSO SHOWS SOME PRECIP JUST SKIRTING US TO THE SOUTH
LATER WED SO THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE PACKAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THIS MAY LEAD
TO COMPLICATIONS IN THE THURS NT TO SAT PERIOD. BAROLCINIC BOUNDARY
WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH WED NT AND THURS...BUT IT
APPEARS PRECIP SHOULD STAY ACROSS PA AND SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP US
DRY THROUGH THURS. THEN IT GETS INTERESTING. PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY/UPPER TROF ORIGINATING FROM BIG PACIFIC STORM WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKES LATER THURS AND DIG SOUTHWARD THURS NT AND
FRI...SPAWNING A SFC LOW OVER OR JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS FRI
WHICH LIFTS UP OFF NEW ENGLAND BY SAT MORNING. OPERATIONAL 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH HAS JUST ARRIVED...IS IN FAIRLY FOOD AGREEMENT WITH
OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND CLOSES OFF THE UPPER TROF INTO AN UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN PA BY FRI AND DRAWS THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT IS ALSO COLDER..WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -2C TO
-4C RANGE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THURS NT AND BROADBRUSH 50 POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING BACK TO LOWER CHC ON SATURDAY.

P-TYPE IN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A CONCERN. 850 MB TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL BE IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW SO
COLDEST POOL WILL BE CLOSE BY. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE FOR A RAIN/WET
SNOW MIX EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
NEARER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS OF SRN TIER. FOR NOW JUST
USED RAIN OR SNOW AND WILL BETTER DEFINE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN SHORT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE IS RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE
STARVED...AND WILL ONLY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME LOW-END
VFR CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA AS IT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
DAYBREAK.

ANY LOWER-END VFR CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF ITS PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PROVIDE CONTINUED FAIR VFR
WEATHER...WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS
LONGER TO SUBSIDE. WILL THEREFORE ADJUST CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...EXTENDING THOSE ON LK ERIE TO 4 PM TODAY AND THE LK
ONTARIO ONES FROM 8 PM (WEST) TO MIDNIGHT (EAST).

NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS NORTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN UP BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.  THEN ANOTHER BREAK IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MARINE
AREAS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008-012>014-019>021-085.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-120200-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-120200-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
951 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF