Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2009
Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 7, 2009, 11:46 AM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Mar 7, 2009, 6:00 PM EST. It was in force for 38 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 7, 2009, 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 7, 2009, 6:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Mar 9, 2009, 8:57 AM EDT
- In force
- 38 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 887 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 96 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 189 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS61 KBUF 071646 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1146 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS... .A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS...MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NYZ006>008-080100- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0001.090307T2300Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1146 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS...MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ SFM
8 follow-up statements
000 WGUS61 KBUF 072021 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 321 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS... .A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS...MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NYZ006>008-080430- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.090307T2300Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 321 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS...MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ SFM
000 WGUS61 KBUF 080312 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1012 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND FINGER LAKES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MOST CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-081200- /O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 1012 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE... WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MOST CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ006>008-081200- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1012 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT STALLED ALONG THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SUNDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOWS...WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ JJR/SFM
000 WGUS61 KBUF 080900 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 500 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... .RAIN FROM SATURDAY BROUGHT ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A SECOND SURGE IN AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. SNOWMELT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ONLY ADD TO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THAT PORTION OF THE STATE...WHERE THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NYZ006>008-081700- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 500 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * RAIN FROM YESTERDAY TOGETHER WITH CONTINUING SNOWMELT AND ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR TONIGHT WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-081700- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 500 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * RAIN FROM YESTERDAY TOGETHER ANOTHER RAIN EVENT BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ ZAFF
000 WGUS61 KBUF 081354 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 954 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... .RAIN FROM SATURDAY BROUGHT ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD NEW YORK STATE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT ANOTHER HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A SECOND SURGE IN AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. SNOWMELT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ONLY ADD TO POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THAT PORTION OF THE STATE...WHERE THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NYZ006>008-082200- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 954 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * RAIN FROM YESTERDAY TOGETHER WITH CONTINUING SNOWMELT AND ANOTHER RAIN EVENT FOR TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...THE BLACK RIVER WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-082200- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 954 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * RAIN FROM YESTERDAY TOGETHER ANOTHER RAIN EVENT BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS... ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TJP
000 WGUS61 KBUF 081946 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 346 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...MORE STEADY RAIN TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A SECOND SURGE ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF GENERAL FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NYZ006>008-090400- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 346 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * ANOTHER 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE BLACK RIVER WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-090400- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 346 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * ANOTHER 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A SECOND SIGNIFICANT RISE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS IS ALSO EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TJP
000 WGUS61 KBUF 090227 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1027 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FURTHER AGGRAVATE LOCAL STREAMS OVERNIGHT... .WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO...THEN LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OCCASIONALLY BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AFTER 10 PM WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS AND LIKELY RESULT IN A SECOND SURGE WITH THE ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF GENERAL FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL SATURDAY NIGHT. NYZ006>008-091030- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1027 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * ANOTHER 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE BLACK RIVER WHICH MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-091030- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 1027 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS URBAN...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A SECOND SIGNIFICANT RISE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS IS ALSO EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ RSH
000 WGUS61 KBUF 090953 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 553 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 ...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FURTHER AGGRAVATE LOCAL STREAMS OVERNIGHT... .WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE RAIN FROM LAST COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. NYZ006>008-091100- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 553 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF FLOODING. $$ NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-091800- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 553 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA... GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE... ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * ANOTHER 0.10 INCHE OF RAIN COULD FALL TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH RAIN LAST NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SECOND SIGNIFICANT RISE ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$
000 WGUS61 KBUF 091257 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 857 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 ...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED... .LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAINS OVER THE REGION WILL COME TO AN END BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. SOME LARGER RIVER AND CREEKS WILL BE NEAR FLOOD AND SPECIFIC WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE...BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED. NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-091400- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090309T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO... CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 857 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAINS OVER THE REGION WILL COME TO AN END BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. SOME LARGER RIVER AND CREEKS WILL BE NEAR FLOOD AND SPECIFIC WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE...BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED. $$ SFM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 7, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 7, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1002 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW YORK THIS EVENING SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA BRIEFLY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...RAIN SURGING EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN MICH TO CNTRL LK ERIE AT MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE NEAR LONDON SHOULD REACH NIAG FRONTIER BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM AND RACE EAST TO OSWEGO/JEFF COUNTIES BY 5 PM. AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN OHIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS LL JET FADES AWAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO NW PA BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. STILL...WITH A FEW STRIKES BACK IN SRN MICH...CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST AS WELL AS NEXT LL JET WORKS IN...SO MAINTAINED THE CHANCE. TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY E LK ONTARIO REGION WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO 50 OR SO. AS FOR HYDRO CONCERNS...THE LATEST 12Z NAM JUST IN SEEMS TO MATCH ONGOING SITUATION TO OUR WEST QUITE WELL..AND SHOWS AN INITIAL SHOT OF MDT-HVY RAIN STREAKING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN A BREAK...THEN ANOTHER SHOT WHEN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS INITIAL SHOT MAY TEND TO RUN OUT OF GAS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING SO FEEL THE NUMBERS ON NAM12 ARE OVERDONE...MAYBE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD...THEN SECOND BATCH MAY AMOUNT TO 0.5 INCH MAX...SO ALL IN ALL...AN INCH QPF TOPS. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE WITHIN A 25 MILE STRIP...WITH LATEST INDICATIONS THAT IT WOULD FAVOR A BUF-ROC-OSW- LEWIS CO CORRIDOR. ASSUMING THIS IS THE CASE...FLOODING THREAT IS MINIMAL IN THE WEST WITH LITTLE/NO SNOW LEFT TO MELT. ONLY CONCERN IS REALLY THE BLACK RIVER BASIN. LATEST RFC PROGS (WITH 1.25 INCH TOTAL) SHOWS BLACK RIVER RISING TO BANKFUL BUT STAYING BLOW FLOOD STAGE. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT HIGHLITE IN HWO. THIS DECISION IS NOT FINAL THOUGH...AND SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY...WILL DO ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON. TEMPS MAY REALLY SURGE IN SW NY IF WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH MAY EVEN ADVANCE UP TO BUF AREA LATER THIS PM...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK STATE FROM QUEBEC WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE STEADY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL LKS. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND SPREAD SOME RAIN NORTHWARD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY SHLD CONTINUE WELL ABV NORMAL LEVELS GETTING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. QPF AMNTS OF A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE AND TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ON MONDAY THE SFC LOW OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT A TROUGH WILL LINGER BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK KEEPING A THREAT OF SHWRS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE FROM CANADA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK STATE. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS FRONT MAY BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL EARLIER LOW CLOUD AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS AT 15Z. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER 17Z IN WEST AND 20Z AT KART. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AS THIS OCCURS. ONCE ESTABLISHED...THESE DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD NEW YORK STATE WILL INCREASE WITH WAVES BUILDING HIGH ENOUGH AS WELL SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...APB/SFM SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...JJP/TJP AVIATION...APB/SFM MARINE...JJP/SFM
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 7, 5:25 AM EST, 6 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 525 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-081030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 525 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A SOAKING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES WEST. A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP RIVERS AND CREEKS AT HIGH LEVELS. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-081030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 525 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF JJP
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.