Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 090346
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ON BUFFALO AREA
CREEKS...

NYZ010-091200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090209T2300Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1046 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

FIELD REPORTS FOR EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT SEVERAL 
ICE JAMS HAD FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS DUE TO THE SNOWMELT
AND WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE
IN WEST SENECA...ANOTHER JAM NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND AN
ADDITIONAL JAM NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO THE STEVENSON STREET
BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM NEAR
WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS IN PLACE
WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD IN WEST
SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 090840
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-091645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
340 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 


FIELD REPORTS SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED THAT SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAD
FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS DUE TO THE SNOWMELT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER EARLY TODAY HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THE SITUATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN
STARTING TUESDAY AND REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND ALSO INCREASE
THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT 
THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

SFM

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 091435
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
935 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ019-085-092245-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
935 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND THE
GAGE ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA SHOWED SOME ICE MOVEMENT
DURING SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER TODAY HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF...BUT
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY AND REACH WELL INTO
THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK
HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE
CREEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET
BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ010-092245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
935 AM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

FIELD REPORTS SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED THAT SEVERAL ICE JAMS HAD
FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS DUE TO THE SNOWMELT AND WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER TODAY HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THE SITUATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE
AT ANY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING
TUESDAY AND REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF
FROM THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND ALSO
INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 092043
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
343 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-100500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
343 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE. 

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
THE SITUATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY
AND REACH THE UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE EXISTING SNOW
PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE
IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-100500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
343 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND THE
GAGE ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA SHOWED SOME ICE MOVEMENT
DURING SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER TODAY HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF...BUT
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY AND REACH THE UPPER
50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK
HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE
CREEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET
BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 100302
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1002 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
THE SITUATION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY
AND REACH THE UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE EXISTING SNOW
PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE
IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-101115-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1002 PM EST MON FEB 9 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND THE
GAGE ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA SHOWED SOME ICE MOVEMENT
DURING SUNDAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WAS EXPERIENCED 
MONDAY...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY AND
REACH THE UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW PACK IN
THE CREEK HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN
THE CREEK... WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT
SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

TMA

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 100827
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
327 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
THE SITUATION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED
RUNOFF FROM THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
327 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 


WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND THE
GAGE ON CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA SHOWED SOME ICE MOVEMENT
DURING SUNDAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WAS EXPERIENCED MONDAY...
BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF
FROM THE SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE
MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEK... WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE
JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

SFM

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 101402
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
902 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-102215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
902 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
THE SITUATION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED
RUNOFF FROM THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-102215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
902 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND ICE
HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW PACK IN
THE CREEK HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN
THE CREEK... WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT
SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 102030
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-110430-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
330 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS.

SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...IN ELMA A HALF A MILE TO A MILE ICE JAM WAS IN
PLACE NEAR WINSPEAR ROAD AND BLOSSOM ROAD...AND ANOTHER JAM WAS
IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD
IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

COLDER WEATHER HAS ENDED ANY RUNOFF AND TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
THE SITUATION...BUT MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED
RUNOFF FROM THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH EVEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-110430-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
330 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY.

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSED SNOW MELT...AND ICE HAS
MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF FROM THE SNOW PACK IN
THE CREEK HEADWATERS...AND ALSO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN
THE CREEK... WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT
SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 110357
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-111200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1057 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 


SEVERAL ICE JAMS THAT FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE IN PLACE.

ON CAZENOVIA CREEK...JAMS WERE IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER BRIDGE IN
WEST SENECA...NEAR THE SOUTHGATE PLAZA AND NEAR CAZENOVIA PARK TO
THE STEVENSON STREET BRIDGE.

ON BUFFALO CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE WHERE BUFFALO CREEK
AND CAYUGA CREEK MEET AT HARLEM ROAD IN WEST SENECA.

ON CAYUGA CREEK...AN ICE JAM WAS IN PLACE NEAR SCHWARTZ ROAD IN
THE ELMA AND LANCASTER AREAS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THIS EVENING HAS RESULTED IN
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT RUNOFF WITH SOME AREA CREEKS STARTING TO RISE
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT RUNOFF. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL ADD TO THE RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS.

THE RUNOFF WILL RESULT IN MORE RISES ON AREA CREEKS THAT WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF MOVEMENT OF THE ICE IN THE CREEKS...WITH
EVEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-111200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1057 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 


WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND TODAY CAUSED SNOWMELT
AND ICE HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT AND THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF AND INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN
THE CREEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT
SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

JJP

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 110832
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-111645-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
332 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 


SEVERAL ICE JAMS FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS LAST WEEKEND AND
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY IN PLACE SINCE. WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY
PRODUCED ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND SOME MOVEMENT TO THE ICE BUT THE
ICE FIELDS ARE STILL UNSTABLE AND PRONE TO FURTHER MOVEMENT TODAY.

IN FACT...EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RESULT IN MORE RUNOFF
FROM ANY EXISTING SNOWPACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS AND PRODUCE
FASTER FLOWS INTO THE CREEKS. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE BUT ALSO MAY AID IN FLUSHING OUT THE REMAINING
ICE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH CAN AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ALL ICE
IS OUT OF THE CREEKS. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY...SLOWING
THE RUNOFF AND LESSENING THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-111645-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
332 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND TODAY CAUSED SNOWMELT AND
ICE HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE  UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RENEWED RUNOFF AND INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE
CREEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET
BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

SFM

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 111419
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
919 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-112230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
919 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS LAST WEEKEND... AND
WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY PRODUCED ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME MOVEMENT TO THE ICE...AND THE ICE FIELDS ARE STILL UNSTABLE
AND PRONE TO FURTHER MOVEMENT TODAY. 

THE JAM ON THE CAZENOVIA CREEK HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH SIDE
AVENUE, AND THERE IS SOME WATER IN CAZENOVIA PARK, BUT NO HOMES
ARE THREATENED. ANOTHER JAM IS STILL IN PLACE NEAR LEYDECKER
BRIDGE, AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN WEST SENECA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RESULT IN MORE RUNOFF FROM SNOWPACK
IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS, AND PRODUCE FASTER FLOWS INTO THE CREEKS.
THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE, BUT ALSO MAY
AID IN FLUSHING OUT THE REMAINING ICE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH CAN AGGRAVATE
THE SITUATION.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ALL ICE IS OUT OF THE CREEKS. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...SLOWING THE RUNOFF AND LESSENING THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-112230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
919 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND TUESDAY CAUSED SNOW MELT
AND ICE HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TODAY WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RENEWED RUNOFF AND INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEK...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY NEAR
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 111646
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1146 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ011-012-120100-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FF.A.0001.090211T1700Z-090213T0500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW
1146 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...GENESEE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE
  TONAWANDA CREEK.

ICE JAMS WERE ON TONAWANDA CREEK TUESDAY NEAR VARYSBURG AND SOUTH
OF ATTICA. WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL TODAY WILL INCREASE THE
FLOW ON THE CREEK ,AND MAY CAUSE THE JAMS TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM. THE
HIGHER WATER AND ICE WILL COMBINE FOR A THREAT OF FLOODING ALONG
THE CREEK. WITH ICE JAMS, FLOODING CAN HAPPEN AT ANY TIME IF THE
ICE BREAKS LOOSE AND JAMS AGAIN. THE FLOOD THREAT OF HIGHER WATER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ010-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1146 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS LAST WEEKEND...
AND WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY PRODUCED ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME MOVEMENT TO THE ICE...AND THE ICE FIELDS ARE STILL
UNSTABLE AND PRONE TO FURTHER MOVEMENT TODAY.

THE JAM ON THE CAZENOVIA CREEK HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH SIDE
AVENUE... AND THERE IS SOME WATER IN CAZENOVIA PARK... BUT NO
HOMES ARE THREATENED. ANOTHER JAM IS STILL IN PLACE NEAR
LEYDECKER BRIDGE... AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN WEST SENECA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RESULT IN MORE RUNOFF FROM
SNOWPACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS... AND PRODUCE FASTER FLOWS INTO
THE CREEKS. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE...
 BUT ALSO MAY AID IN FLUSHING OUT THE REMAINING ICE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH CAN AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ALL ICE IS OUT OF THE CREEKS. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...SLOWING THE RUNOFF AND LESSENING THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-120100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1146 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND TUESDAY CAUSED SNOW MELT
AND ICE HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TODAY WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RENEWED RUNOFF AND INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEK...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY NEAR
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 112032
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ON BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS...

NYZ010-120445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
332 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. 

SEVERAL ICE JAMS FORMED ON BUFFALO AREA CREEKS LAST WEEKEND...
AND WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY PRODUCED ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME MOVEMENT TO THE ICE...AND THE ICE FIELDS ARE STILL
UNSTABLE AND PRONE TO FURTHER MOVEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE JAM ON THE CAZENOVIA CREEK HAS MOVED DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH SIDE
AVENUE... AND THERE IS SOME WATER IN CAZENOVIA PARK... BUT NO
HOMES ARE THREATENED. ANOTHER JAM IS STILL IN PLACE NEAR
LEYDECKER BRIDGE... AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN WEST SENECA.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN MORE
RUNOFF FROM SNOWPACK IN THE CREEK HEADWATERS... AND PRODUCE FASTER
FLOWS INTO THE CREEKS. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE MOVEMENT OF
THE ICE... BUT ALSO MAY AID IN FLUSHING OUT THE REMAINING ICE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHICH CAN AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ALL ICE IS OUT OF THE CREEKS. COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN
THURSDAY...SLOWING THE RUNOFF AND LESSENING THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ019-085-120445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
332 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. 

WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND TUESDAY CAUSED SNOW MELT
AND ICE HAS MOVED DOWN THE CREEK TOWARD SUNSET BAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RUNOFF AND INCREASE
THE MOVEMENT OF ICE IN THE CREEK... WITH A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY NEAR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE NEAR SUNSET BAY YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

NYZ011-012-120445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090213T0500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW
332 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...GENESEE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE 
  TONAWANDA CREEK. 

ICE JAMS WERE ON TONAWANDA CREEK TUESDAY NEAR VARYSBURG AND SOUTH
OF ATTICA. WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
THE FLOW ON THE CREEK ...AND MAY CAUSE THE JAMS TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM. THE HIGHER WATER AND ICE WILL COMBINE FOR A THREAT OF
FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK. WITH ICE JAMS... FLOODING CAN HAPPEN AT
ANY TIME IF THE ICE BREAKS LOOSE AND JAMS AGAIN. THE FLOOD THREAT
OF HIGHER WATER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY. BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 120901
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

NYZ011-012-121015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090213T0500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW
401 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW
YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ICE JAMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR
ALONG TONAWANDA CREEK TODAY. HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT
HAS SWOLLEN THE CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BATAVIA
PORTION OF THE CREEK WITH FLOOD STAGE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED LATE
THIS MORNING. A FLOOD WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM IN THE RAPIDS AREA.

$$

NYZ010-019-085-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
401 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ICE JAMS UNTIL 10 AM
EST THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE.

* UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED ICE JAM FLOODING ON
  CAZENOVIA CREEK IN SOUTH BUFFALO. RUNOFF WILL SLOW AS COLDER AIR
  FILTERS IN BUT RUN OFF FROM LAST EVENINGS RAIN MAY STILL CAUSE
  PROBLEMS AS THE JAM WAS LAST REPORTED AT THE CAZENOVIA STREET
  BRIDGE.

ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE WARNINGS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE.

$$

SAGE

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 121501
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

NYZ010-019-085-121615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-090212T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1001 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON SEVERAL CREEKS IN WESTERN NEW
YORK...PLEASE REFER TO SPECIFIC WARNING PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

$$

JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVES. THE WARMTH WILL BE USHERED IN BY A WARM FRONT
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE
WARMTH WILL END ABRUPTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND MAY PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE SNOWS
WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES OF -11C JUST REACH THE THRESHOLD OVER THE
COLD LAKE, AND THE CAP REACHES ONLY 5K FEET, BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS
SOME DECENT 925 MB OMEGA VALUES, SO WE HAVE PUT 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACCUMULATION WITH 50% POPS. THE AIR DRIES OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND
BEGINS TO WARM IN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURE RANGE,
AND THIS SHOULD SHUT ANY ACTIVITY DOWN OR LIMIT IT SEVERELY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES MONDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL OVER THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND 850MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE ZERO BY THE END OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO
UPPER 30S WITH SOME LOW 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL BE
MORE STUBBORN TO LEAVE THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
QUEBEC SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS AT 00Z TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MONDAY
NIGHT AFTER EARLY EVENING LOWS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ALL THE WAY
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THE 900-700MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT TIMING TO RANGE FROM THE MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO MIDDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. IF THE RAIN
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAY SEE A TOUCH OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET FROM THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE TRIVIAL.

FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...THE CWA WILL BREAK INTO A VERY BROAD WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP. WILL THUS KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL MAJOR SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK.
UTILIZING A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS FROM THE LATEST GFS...WE
CAN USE PV AS AN ATMOSPHERIC TRACER TO FIND THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST.
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN
ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SPIN DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT SPAWNS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON
SOLUTION IN TRACKING THIS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
THE GFS IN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND NOW THE NEW 12Z/08 RUNS OF
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AND IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE
TIME RANGE. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH AND FLOW
INCREASES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST. 850MB TEMPS SOAR INTO THE +8C RANGE BY AFTERNOON IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
LOW 60S READINGS. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER
MAJOR MELTDOWN...WITH IMPLIED HYDRO ISSUES. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.

NOW FOR THE INTERESTING TIME FRAME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
TRACK ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT REMAINS FAR TOO
EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS...BUT IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THIS
SETUP MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
WINDS ARE FUNNELED BY THE TERRAIN.

ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE VERY DYNAMIC NATURE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE FACT THAT IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WITH TIME AND PASSES THROUGH NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF FORCED CONVECTION.
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND
MOIST...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 50F.
THE LATEST 12Z GEFS SUGGESTS PWATS OF 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...A VERY RARE EVENT INDEED. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW
SOME MINIMAL SBCAPE...OF 20-40J/KG. KINEMATICS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH
500MB WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND 850MB V COMPONENT WIND ANOMALIES OF
ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE COMPARE THIS SETUP
WITH A LOCAL STUDY OF THE JANUARY 9 2008 COLD SEASON DERECHO
CASE...THE ARE MANY SIMILARITIES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL
RUNS CLOSELY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL MAJOR SYSTEM AT MIDWEEK...A RELATIVELY
BENIGN PERIOD APPEARS IN THE OFFING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW
RETURNING ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES AND MODEST LAKE INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...AND STILL TRY TO HANG ONTO A
DRY DAY FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY WHERE THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS
MVFR.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
MVFR CONDITIONS EAST OF ROCHESTER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING.  CHANCE
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
IN THE MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY AND TEND
SOUTHEAST TO EAST TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY LATER WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT RISK OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY. IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS DEEP LOW REMAINS FAVORABLE...GUSTS MAY
APPROACH STORM FORCE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATURDAYS STRONG THAW REALLY PUT A DENT IN THE AREAS SNOWPACK AND
EVEN LOOSENED UP SOME ICE IN WESTERN CREEKS. A GOOD 12 TO 18 HOURS
OF TEMPS NEAR 50...DEW PTS NEAR 40...AND STRONG WINDS REDUCED THE
PACKS DEPTH BY 50-75 PERCENT AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) BY
A THIRD TO A HALF IN THE WEST AND LESS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...
BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SWE IN THE PACK ACROSS THE
REGION. MAJOR RUNOFF IS SLOWING WITH NEGLIGIBLE ADDITIONAL MELTING
SUNDAY. GAGE HEIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ON SUNDAY SHOWED THAT WATER IS
HIGH AND FLOWING, BUT VISIBLE REPORTS HAVE THE ICE LOCKED IN PLACE
MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CREEKS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT
PROBLEMS UNTIL MID WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONGER MAJOR WARMUP STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND
REALLY PEAK LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF FORECASTED TEMPS
OF 55-60 AND QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH MATERIALIZE...THEN MOST OF THE
REMAINING SNOWPACK IN THE WEST WILL UNLEASH AS IT IS NOW VERY
RIPE...SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF HYDRO ISSUES. THE THREAT MAY EVEN SPREAD
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR AWHILE. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED AND
BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
THIRD WINTER/SPRING OUTLOOK OF THE 2008-09 SEASON WAS ISSUED FRIDAY
UNDER BUFESFBUF AND IS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY
SECTION OF OUR WEBSITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APB
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APB/SFM
MARINE...APB/HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...SFM/APB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-091045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
538 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK NORTH OF NEW YORK
STATE THURSDAY.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR IS STILL FORECAST
TO SURGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS PERIODS
OF STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL.
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES...ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THE DEEPER
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE
RAINFALL INITIALLY...REDUCING THE IMPACT FROM RUNOFF.

THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORM IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
TO THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-091045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
538 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TJP