Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS AT THIS TIME ARE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDCAKCKS...MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE IT IS
ONLY MARGINAL WITH CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
STORMS IS VORT MOVING THRU BASE OF APRCHG UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
SEWRD FROM ONTARIO. HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR THIS EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH GREATEST THREAT CONTINUING TO BE
HAIL DUE FAVORABLE TEMP PROFILES. ALSO THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DUE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. THREAT OF SVR REMAINS HIGHER
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA WHERE WIND FIELD IS STRONGER AND
INSTABILITY GREATER. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ALBEIT LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WEAK ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE SERIES OF VORTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW AND REMNANTS OF DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PCPN DURING
WEDNESDAY...THUS CATEGORICAL POPS PREFERRED. CHANCES FOR TSRA NOT
ALL THAT GREAT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE LACK OF SFC HEATING.
IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL DUE COOL POOL ALOFT. WIND FIELD VERY WEAK AS WE WILL BE
UNDER UPPER LOW.

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNEASDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DECREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUE...SO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH JUST THE SLIGHT
CHC OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WX TO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...START OUT THE EXTENDED DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES AWAY FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY AND MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THE DRY SPELL WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LOW
LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY VORT
MAXES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...STUCK WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS REACH 12-15C. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL THEREAFTER AS COOL AIR INFILTRATES ALOFT
AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS SOLAR HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST
24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 02Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MAINLY AFFECT KMPV/KRUT/KSLK THROUGH 22Z...DROPPING THESE SITES TO
IFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BRING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
TO MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL END AT ALL SITES AFTER 03Z...BUT
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR AT THE
VALLEY SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KSLK AND KMPV BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
KMPV DROPPING TO VLIFR AFTER 08Z. ALL FOG WILL LIFT BY 12Z...BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
448 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-080900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
448 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AFTER
NOONTIME TODAY...WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 N WILLSBORO           44.43N 73.40W
07/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       ESSEX              NY   PUBLIC

            ALSO STRONG GUSTY WINDS

&&

GERALDM

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